It's been a long time since I've talked about Intel, and I know that several big KOLs on Twitter are silently holding Intel, such as @TJ_Research01
For Intel, I only have one sentence, Brother Wu or Wu Cut, see you at the end of the year
As one of the few IDM manufacturers in the world with chip manufacturing capabilities of 7nm and below, and the only IDM manufacturer in the United States with the ability to implement the whole value chain from design to manufacturing and packaging and testing, Intel is the only one in the United States.
The price-to-book ratio is barely 1 times, to put it bluntly, you can buy 1 yuan of Intel's net assets with 1 yuan, and it also comes with technology, channels and factories, this is the price of cabbage, leave an imaginary position
Today, the famous contrarian indicator in the market came, and the fund manager of Bank of America adjusted that the level of cash held by fund managers has fallen to 3.9%, falling below the threshold of 4.0%, which is a famous sell signal
However, for a person who has never been satisfied with the position, on the contrary, this is a signal to increase the position, and he is still determined to hold a large position in gold and metallurgical coal
The 10-year U.S. bond is about to 4.5%, the 30-year U.S. bond is 5%, Japan's 30-year bond is at a new high, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September fell below 60%, and the U.S. bond issuance scale in the third quarter was 1 trillion
Nvidia has given an expectation of 5 trillion, Broadcom continues to reach new highs, and the market is really fragmented, which may be the theme of Bank of America's global fund manager survey in July: Sticky Toppy Pudding
Do you guys have any ideas?
Today, the A-shares are almost like a cesspool, with a significant reduction in capital, down by over 200 billion. The market's trading heat is clearly in the robotics sector, while the lithium battery sector surged in the morning, followed by a pullback in the afternoon, but the trend hasn't deteriorated.
Last Friday, the U.S. stock market was quite sluggish, and today the futures continue to decline, while gold is rising. In this context, Bitcoin has shown an independent trend, reaching a new high of 120,000.
Regarding macro events this week, there is important data coming out on Tuesday, the CPI data for June, which will determine whether the U.S. stock market continues to rise or experiences a short-term correction.
After the last non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has almost disappeared, and currently, the probability of a rate cut in September is only 64.8%.
If the CPI data on Tuesday night significantly exceeds expectations, then the expectation for a rate cut in September may also vanish. The current market expectation for overall CPI is 2.67%, with core CPI increasing by 3%, and a month-on-month increase of about 0.3%, which supports the argument for the Federal Reserve not to cut rates.
Personally, I believe that the CPI data on Tuesday will be slightly lower than market expectations. Over the weekend, there has been talk about whether Powell is considering resigning.
Subjectively, I hope Powell completes his term. If he resigns, although the expectation for a rate cut will definitely rise, the independence of the Federal Reserve will inevitably be questioned, which fundamentally is bearish for U.S. stocks and bonds, but still bullish for gold.
From the perspective of U.S. bonds, the 2-year yield has returned to 3.9%, and the 10-year yield has returned to 4.4%, approaching the hitting point again, which brings us back to the main concerns of the market.
Regarding the consequences of Powell's resignation, Deutsche Bank's view is very direct: if Trump forces Powell to resign, the dollar index could plummet by 3%-4% within 24 hours, and U.S. bonds could sell off by 30-40 basis points.
As for the U.S. stock market's performance this week, I believe the probability of a correction is greater than that of continued growth. A correction is healthy, especially since it has already set historical highs for two consecutive weeks, and the upward momentum is clearly weakening.
Moreover, the market sentiment indicators have been in the extreme greed zone for two consecutive weeks. It's worth noting that most global assets are reaching new highs, including Nvidia, Bitcoin, copper prices, silver, and platinum, and these assets shouldn't be hitting new highs simultaneously. Just to mention quietly, the dollar index has started to rise.
The market's expectations for a rate cut are extremely optimistic, which is a bit dangerous. Don't be overly optimistic, and don't fill your positions too much.
Returning to the U.S. stock positions, IWM small-cap index will continue to hold, and I will also make some trades in the metallurgical coal sector, observing the target (HCC).
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