in the near term, the btc whale selling flow is gonna lean on the bid quite hard. however, this is similar to the german gov selling - the quantities are known and flows are transparent. similar to how the prev dynamics played out, the market will over index on the near term flows, over price the downside risk and then rerate higher once the flows subside. would generally tread lightly until such a time as the flows are subsiding, but over indexing on known and temporal flows has never been a winning strat, esp given the macro backdrop.
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