I also talked about this with my friends today, and the rise in the risk market is very similar to the trend from April 11 to May, on the one hand, it has just come out of the tense tariff issue (tariff delay), and on the other hand, there are expectations for monetary policy, and Trump shouts Powell every day.
All the main sentiment at the moment is coming from the passability (tariffs until August 1) and the expectation that Trump will finalize the new Fed chairman, or at least his candidate, in July, but the bond market is not so optimistic, and the 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds all indicate that the Fed is not so fast on the path of a full-blown rate cut.
For $BTC, it is still highly consistent with U.S. stocks, and the decisions of investors in U.S. stocks will inevitably reflect the cryptocurrency market, it's just a matter of time, Bitcoin has indeed started to increase last Thursday, but this volume has not reached a very high level, compared with the peak in 2024, the gap is far away, so the buying volume is not very strong, and more people don't want to buy.
In the past, the more people wanted to sell, the more they rose, but now the more they rise, the fewer people want to sell.
The latest view of the Goldman Sachs trading desk is only six big words: the market is too arrogant
Indeed, now all assets are at new highs, silver is at a 14-year high, platinum is at an 11-year high, Bitcoin is at a new high, Nvidia is at an all-time high, and there is really a lot of logic that is not quite right in the market at the moment.
After the passage of the Great Beauty Act, the net issuance of bonds in the third quarter was 1 trillion US dollars, although most of them were short-term, but the liquidity margin was certain, and the current situation is very similar to June 2023.
After the debt ceiling was lifted in June 2023, the S&P 500 retreated 4% during this period, and the dollar index rose 3.3%, although it cannot be strictly carved into the sword.
But now that the U.S. stock market is at a high level, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising, the U.S. dollar index is also quietly rising, and the market sentiment is extremely optimistic
Now the main line of the market is to trade interest rate cuts, trade Trump TACO, trade Powell's resignation, but the consensus of the group is often the beginning of a reversal.
Just opened a position in metallurgical coal and long gold......
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