We likely need price confirmation tomorrow to solidify a breakout, but it's possible the Fed Minutes just tapped us into a whole new credit cycle to the upside.
Reminder there is $7 trillion of cash on the sidelines in money market funds. If they cut rates, you do the math...
Per @NickTimiraos - "Officials are divided into three groups
1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group)
2) No cuts this year
3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple", ie, Waller and Bowman)
Markets are starting to discount a Fed easing. Let's check out some price action....
$ARKK continues to breakout higher after a 3 year "Cup & Handle" which solidifies the fact that capital is now flowing out into "Frontier Markets"
Bitcoin is on the Cusp of breaking out of a 1 year "Cup & Handle"
$COIN - 3 Year Cup and Handle breakout already.
$MSTR- Knock Knock Knockin on Heaven's Door- Looks similar to BTC obviously.
The vol of BTC and MSTR has reset lower. If we breakout higher we could see quite the gamma squeeze.
Supply is negligible on exchanges and the the derivatives market is short to the upside likely because of overwriting products trying to generate yield.
$RKLB- Cup and Handle Breakout already solidified.
$IREN Cup and Handle Breakout- Has 3GW of power for the AI theme. We need 90 GW to get to AGI. @mikealfred
$HYG Might be telling us this is whole new credit cycle.
Spreads are down and reach for yield has commenced as there isn't enough supply and divvy's keep getting recycled back into the asset class.
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