Review of the first half of 2025:
January opportunities: The big money opportunity was Trump. Missing out on this might mean missing out for many years, but small investors were relatively indifferent. (Looking at the $1.5 billion market cap, I didn’t feel much. I underestimated the influence of a confirmed president compared to a potential president, as I had participated in several of his projects before, but none had reached billions. This made me realize the difference between a confirmed president and a potential one.)
TST was also a relatively good opportunity, favored by mid-to-small investors.
ai16z also surged from a $200 million market cap to $2 billion during this period.
February opportunities: Shorting various coins across the board, pi coin listing, IP, and kaito were decent opportunities. However, there were no iconic opportunities this month.
March opportunities: The BSC ecosystem exploded, with mubark, tut, sonic’s shadow, etc., experiencing a surge for a period.
April opportunities: BTC, ETH, and SOL all dropped to their bottoms. The market began to rebound due to Trump releasing positive news. BIG, RFC, troll, etc., were all considered phase opportunities. Additionally, Binance Alpha’s TGE started gaining traction, and four’s skyai transfer launch occurred. Dark and MTN were also decent opportunities.
May opportunities: Exchange market trends exploded, with virtual and SUI being noteworthy. BOOP, launchcoin, lestbonk listed some coins, and Adventure Island NXPC’s BSC chain offered low prices. These opportunities were also decent.
The above are opportunities we understood and participated in, but ultimately didn’t achieve great results, requiring some reflection.
This year’s market lacked fixed characteristics and sustainability. Scammers were aggressive with their KPIs, and many who made money last year lost a lot back, with account balances shrinking by 80%. Everyone feels a sense of crisis, especially those who didn’t achieve results last year and could rest easy.
Under these circumstances, the post-2000 generation, as the main active force in the P small group, is generally pragmatic and doesn’t dream much. Without violent funds or focus, market caps rise and fall quickly, unlike last year’s projects that could stabilize at certain heights.
Binance’s listing strategy this year often chooses coins with its own chips, and there are so many TGE projects that they created Alpha to attract Web2 players and achieve growth.
In summary, Binance’s own coins can’t even get listed, and scammers don’t care about your traffic. It’s more cost-effective to find traffic outside the circle. This year’s theme is a money-grabbing rhythm, from Trump to P small groups—it’s all about grabbing and profiting. In this atmosphere, protecting principal, reducing participation frequency, and filtering out distractions to cultivate one’s mindset becomes especially important.
The purpose of P is to screen out leaders that can be held overnight with confidence. Generally, they have a very standout angle and are currently unique in the market, making them easy to focus on. Later followers, even with similar fundamentals, find it hard to become leaders, even stronger ones like grok and RFC, both from Musk. By the time grok came around, the concept had been used many times, and even though it was more explicit, funds struggled to generate fantasies.
Recently, the hot launchcoin was somewhat unexpected and can’t be called inevitable. However, its advantage lies in the platform coin aspect, which is traceable. But currently, we don’t fully understand the relationship between platform coins, launches, and dev interests, as the project team hasn’t made it clear.
BOOP’s launch purpose was also to grab pump traffic, but the model hasn’t taken off. Letsbonk is also grabbing, but its background and overall funding seem to be lacking.
Everything points to false prosperity and fragmented development. In this market environment, what we should do is observe more, act less, cultivate our mindset, build mutual trust, sense the market atmosphere, and find the most unique and standout angle, rather than trying to climb through peripheral connections like I did.
This year’s patterns are difficult, and we should all feel the crisis of being eliminated. Market funds are insufficient on one hand, and on the other, we haven’t updated our methods or tools for a long time. It’s time to learn.
Not making money isn’t necessarily shameful. It’s not so important if it’s not something you led or discovered. While we all want a commendable track record, the result is what truly matters.
Abandon fantasies—either you’re the leader, or you’re a retail investor.
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