8.3 Is the bull market over?
1. My view is that we are experiencing a deep correction, and we have not yet seen the peak.
2. BTC's bull market has seen its first breakthrough to a new high, but it quickly fell back. From a weekly perspective, this indicates a potential top divergence, which indeed requires caution. However, BTC will at least attempt to hit 120,000 again; 120,000 for BTC is equivalent to 60,000 in the last cycle.
3. ETH is the only one I am optimistic about; after the correction, it will still break through 4,000 or even reach a new high. Most altcoins' bull markets have already ended, and each major rebound is an opportunity to cash out.
8.2 Perspective Update
Since bottoming out in the US stock market on April 7, I have been bullish on both the US stock market and the crypto space. However, yesterday I felt a slight danger for the first time, reduced most of my positions, and published a bearish viewpoint for the following reasons:
1. BTC chose to break down after consolidating for more than ten days.
2. After a significant gap up, Microsoft/Meta declined, and Coinbase plummeted after hours. This wave of increase began with a sharp drop due to uncertainty from the tariff war, and after the tariff agreement eliminated that uncertainty, profits began to be realized.
3. The magnitude of BTC's new highs is getting smaller; after BTC broke 110,000, it started to pull back at 123,000, indicating that prices above 120,000 are losing their attractiveness.
Regarding the outlook for the future:
1. We are currently in for a deep correction; 123,000 for BTC may not be the highest point, but it is within the top range.
2. ETH will be the only cryptocurrency I firmly believe will rise; after the correction, it still has a high probability of breaking 4,000 or even reaching a new historical high. ETH will drain liquidity from altcoins, while the SOL ecosystem will collapse.
3. The crypto space has not absorbed liquidity from the US stock market; on the contrary, the US stock market has withdrawn liquidity from the crypto space through ETFs/crypto stocks. The performance of the US stock market will be much better than that of the crypto space.
33.54K
29
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.