I just bought some @0xHyperBeat points via @RumpelLabs's pHBEAT-1.
They were at $0.20.
That's an estimated FDV of $35M.
@spectra_finance, e.g., values these points at $60M FDV.
If/When Pendle comes to HyperEVM, we'll get even more confirming data points.
Here's my math 🧵👇
We know that there will be 51M hearts.
That's the same number of points as the HyperLiquid airdrop.
That, and because the telegram trench rumors are highly aligned, I'm betting Hyperbeat will do a ~30% FDV airdrop.
Which means...
1) Hearts on Rumpel are priced at $35M FDV
2) Hearts on Spectra are prices at $60M FDV
That's already a huge inefficiency.
Personally, I think a reasonable FDV for a protocol that that already has over 240M TVL (and rapidly growing) is between $75M and $200M.
That would be a 2x on the points at a minimum.
Granted, liquidity is insanely thin.
The best thing to do, imo, is set a limit order on @HyperSwapX before points distribution on Thursday.
Rumpel allows for "auto-sell" which dumps all the minted heart points onto the market each Thursday, typically crashing value.
This allows you to pick up points around $0.14.
Anywho, hopefully Pendle markets come to HyperEVM soon so we have one more data point to value these with and can start to close the inefficiencies in valuation between the three protocols.
Arbitrage is great, because you always profit from inefficiencies if you hedge.
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