Pickle Cat

Your Republican cat next door, decoding crypto chaos & roasting clowns 🤡 | Degen trader since 2013 (from Reddit)

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if u wanna know what crypto to hold for the next bull run, apparently all u gotta do is look at today’s reported $5.6B Binance hack guys no wonder $ETH is Kim Jong Un’s favorite pookie So bullish on my ETH babies😭 but jokes aside, I’d keep a very close eye on the market over the next 72 hours. wouldn’t be surprised if we get another leg down. I’m already getting ready to DCA. this whole thing reminds me of 2022. remember, LUNA collapsing in May wasn’t the bottom. Celsius and 3AC blew up in June, BTC flushed to around $17.6k, and then FTX happened in November and took us down to ~$15.5k. looking back, those were some of the best accumulation opportunities of that entire cycle. but they didn’t all happen at once. major blowups tend to cluster around periods of forced deleveraging. when institutions are scrambling for liquidity, they sell whatever they can, not necessarily what they want to. that’s when prices can temporarily disconnect from fundamentals. now, I don’t think it’s fair to call this FTX 2.0 just yet. FTX was fundamentally a solvency and credit contagion crisis. so far, the Binance situation appears to be a security breach, with roughly $2.4B in stablecoins reportedly frozen and Binance saying user funds are safe. that’s encouraging, but we still don’t know the final losses or whether there are any second-order effects. frozen funds aren’t necessarily recovered funds either. and remember, BTC was already under pressure before the hack news broke. we’ve got a hawkish Fed, weakness in tech stocks, and a market that’s still extremely sensitive to liquidity. the hack just added another layer of uncertainty and triggered a pretty brutal long liquidation cascade. so over the next few days, I’m watching withdrawals, any signs of contagion, whether futures leverage gets properly flushed out, and most importantly, whether real spot demand starts absorbing the selling. a big red candle alone doesn’t mean we’ve found the bottom. I wanna see whether the forced sellers are actually running out. I’m not interested in catching the exact bottom or levering myself into another disaster lol. just keeping dry powder and preparing to DCA in stages if we get another proper liquidity sweep. and please, every time something blows up in crypto, people start screaming that the entire industry is finished. we heard enough of that shit in 2022. the industry survived, but plenty of individual companies and tokens didn’t. there’s a difference. anyway, I’m watching closely and getting ready to buy the fear, fam. 🥒

Trump recently said “certain levels of inflation” could help pay down the national debt “very rapidly.” everyone laughed because lol sure, just inflate away $ 40T. But if you put together what’s happening with Treasury yields, stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, Japan finally raising rates after decades of basically free money, and the insane amount of debt being raised for AI… eyyy wait a second what if the plan was never to pay the debt off? look at GENIUS. if stablecoin reserves are held directly in Treasuries, those Treasuries have to mature in 93 days or less. 93 days lol say $100 goes into USDT and the issuer parks it in a 3-month T-bill. 3 months later it matures, but the guy still owns his USDT. Tether still needs somewhere to keep that $100. another T-bill. 3 months later? “same again?” now multiply that by a stablecoin market Treasury thinks could eventually reach several trillion dollars. America just got a potentially enormous pool of money that keeps coming back to short-term debt. now Trump’s inflation comment gets funny. inflation is great when you borrowed at 2% for 30 years. years pass, the dollars you owe are worth less and the lender eats it. try that with the 3-month guy. his bill matures and he comes straight back like “yea I saw the inflation numbers. what are you paying me now?” so inflation can make yesterday’s debt cheaper while making tomorrow’s refinancing more expensive. which makes repeat buyers pretty damn useful. some guy in Argentina dumps pesos for USDT because he wants dollars. he doesn’t care about Treasury auctions. but if that’s new dollar demand, the issuer needs new reserves, and some of it ends up in T-bills. guy loses faith in pesos, Washington gets a buyer. incredible arrangement lol and not all stablecoin growth is new demand. if I move $100k from a Treasury money-market fund into USDC, the money may already have been in government paper. the interesting part is money that wasn’t in dollars before people can now dollarize themselves with an app instead of waiting for their central bank to do it. and THEN Japan starts making sense. Japan spent decades near zero because it couldn’t get inflation going. yen became dirt-cheap funding and global finance borrowed it to buy higher-returning stuff elsewhere. now Japan finally has inflation and the BOJ is hiking. one of the world’s old pools of almost-free funding is getting more expensive right when America needs an absurd amount of capital. and apparently Big Tech does too Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle have issued roughly $220B of bonds over the past year while the AI buildout eats capital at a deranged rate. government borrowing through the ceiling, AI companies borrowing hundreds of billions, rates around 5%. you’re literally sleeping on a bed made of debt and leverage and somehow acting like this is fine??? apparently everyone is making the same bet: borrow now and hope whatever you’re building makes today’s debt look small later. AI is the growth bet. stablecoins help keep buyers coming while everyone waits to see if it works. which is a pretty funny place for crypto to end up. it spent 15 years trying to escape the dollar system, and now its biggest product helps distribute dollars around the world while part of the reserves finance Washington. maybe the next crypto bull market happens because crypto finally found product-market fit with the US government. Ahhh how depressingly ironic

if you trade stocks or crypto you should probably understand why the bond market is acting fucking possessed right now because this is one of those boring looking things that decides whether your portfolio gets another liquidity sugar high or you end up selling feet pics to make rent so lemme explain three things👇 1. why Treasury yields keep climbing 2. what actually makes them stop 3. why “yield down” can mean either AMAZING or OH FUCK for BTC and tech quick refresher: people buy Treasuries, price up, yield down. people sell, price down, yield up. so why did the 10Y hit ~5.3%, the highest since 2002? basically everyone wants money at the same fucking time. inflation is still above the Fed’s target, so the Fed has less room to cut. if short rates stay high, investors aren’t gonna lock money up for 10 years at some shitty low yield unless they think rates are about to fall hard. Washington is issuing mountains of Treasuries to fund the deficit. AI is another giant borrower. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle have issued roughly $220B of debt this year to fund the buildout. so Washington and Big Tech are standing in front of the same investors going: “hi can I borrow an obscene amount of money pls 🥺🙏” “sure. pay me more.” the funny feedback loop is high yields partly come from fear the Fed stays tight, but once the 10Y gets high enough, mortgages and corporate borrowing get more expensive anyway. the bond market starts doing some of the Fed’s choking for it. and 5% is a BIG fucking difference. for much of the post-financial-crisis era, the 10Y was way below this. during Covid it went below 1%. now Uncle Sam is offering you around 5% on a 10Y like some formerly ugly guy who came back from summer break six feet tall with a trust fund. the bond selloff starts fading when yields get high enough that buyers finally go “ok fine, THAT’S worth buying.” around 5%+, pensions, insurers and bond funds start paying attention. then oil cools, jobs soften, Fed-hike odds drop, and suddenly it becomes: “oh shit what if 5% doesn’t last?” lock in ~5% today and similar bonds yield 4% later, yours gets more valuable. basically a rent-controlled apartment before the neighborhood blows up. but yield down can mean two VERY different things. inflation cools, oil behaves, the Fed backs off a little and the economy stays fine? yields drift lower, boring bonds get less attractive, financial conditions loosen. great for stocks and crypto. but yields also collapse when something breaks. recession, credit accident, whatever. markets price aggressive Fed cuts, scared money runs into Treasuries, bond prices rip and yields fall while BTC can still be getting absolutely murdered. so a falling 10Y by itself tells you almost nothing. slow bleed lower while inflation behaves? beautiful. vertical collapse in three days? maybe check what caught fire before opening a 20x long. this is why the $40T debt clock matters less for trading. everyone knows America owes a stupid amount of money. what changes is the return investors demand to keep lending to it. and when Treasuries pay 5%+, everything else has to compete. expensive tech, BTC, your shitcoin, all of it. Treasury auctions are the live test: Washington puts more IOUs on the table and sees whether 5% is enough. September’s 5Y auction was ugly as hell, weakest bid-to-cover in nine years with a ~3bp tail, and nearly another $120B of 3Y, 10Y and 30Y supply is coming through. strong demand makes it easier for yields to come down. if buyers still want more, yields keep climbing. the dream for your bags is incredibly boring: yields slowly come down and nothing dies. if they suddenly fall through the floor, maybe don’t celebrate too fast. anyway. America still needs buyers. a lot of them. where do you think they’re gonna come from? what if they already found a way to turn the rest of the world into one?