Post

A steady core PCE reading is not the same as an inflation victory. July's 3.3% YoY and 0.2% MoM print reduces the case for reacting to fresh acceleration, yet Q2 growth at 1.5% annualized also leaves policymakers with limited room for an aggressive inflation response. My read: the key market variable at Jackson Hole is not whether Warsh sounds hawkish or dovish, but whether he defines a credible threshold for hiking versus holding. A clear framework could matter more than the immediate policy signal; ambiguity would leave the dollar, Treasurys, gold and BTC trading the uncertainty itself. Not advice, just analysis. #PCEToJacksonHole