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The Middle East front is heating up again: Trump has ordered a thorough investigation into the Pentagon's ammunition stockpile leak, Saudi intelligence reports that the Houthis and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are coordinating attacks, and Iran is advancing legislation to ban US and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, and both US stocks and bonds retreated. A reminder of the usual rule: this round of war risk is not being priced as a safe haven but as 'inflation → interest rate hikes.' So don't automatically assume war is bullish for $BTC —when oil rises and rate hike expectations come together, gold and crypto are likely to be suppressed together. The first geopolitical reaction is seen in crude oil and 2-year US Treasuries, not in who shouts the loudest. Let's watch and protect your ammo.