总结
$RIZZY 代币上线前 FDV 为 10.7 万美元,抢购前 FDV 涨到 32 万美元,抢购后 FDV 达到约 84.5 万美元。
算法抢购(Algo Snipe)会用 2.5 万美元买入代币,抢购者买入时 FDV 为 52 万美元,抢购后短期内有约 1.6 倍收益空间。
作者还根据不同出价等级,估算了抢购池的分配情况,帮助用户判断是否参与算法抢购。
结论:抢购资金会大幅推高 FDV,早期参与者有较大收益空间,但流动性较薄,需注意风险。
Updated FDV Numbers of $RIZZY at launch
This post is going to let you know about the FDV of $RIZZY,
> At Sale
> At Launch before Snipe
> After Sniping
Also, I have estimated the probable allocation from sniping pool to users for all bid levels (Assuming all signup for Algo Snipe).
Let's dig in (hoping math is gonna math),
1. Crunching FDV Numbers:
> $RIZZY is raising 40K $USDC at an FDV of 106.66K & token price of $0.005079
> So, FDV of $RIZZY at launch before algo sniping would be,
----->Fund Raise/Liquidity %
-----> 40000/0.125 = 320K
-----> Price of $RIZZY at 320K FDV = $0.01524
>Based on AMM Formula (x*y=k),
40000*2625000=105,000,000,000
> Now we know 25K $USDC will be used to snipe agent, thus increasing the total $USDC in pool,
40000+25000=65000 $USDC
> New balance of $RIZZY in liquidity pool after sniping,
65000*y=105B
y=1,615,384.62
$RIZZY removed from pool = 2.625M-1.615M=1.009M
> So 25K is used to buy 1.009M $RIZZY, hence the average price at which we snipe would be $0.02476, making the FDV buy at 520K
> Token Price of $RIZZY after algo sniping,
Total $USDC in pool/Remaining $RIZZY in pool
65000/1615384.62= $0.04023
> New FDV after algo sniping,
21000000*0.04023= 844,830
Conclusion:
> So, it looks like pre-launch users will buy token at 107K FDV and after algo-sniping, the users will be at ~8x approximately.
> 25K $USDC used for sniping will increase the FDV of $RIZZY from 320K to 845K (due to thin liquidity)
> Algo snipers will be buying the token at 520K FDV and will be sitting at 1.62x post launch after sniping before public apes in.
2. Dollar allocation for algo snipers:
If you have seen my post on dynamic allocation post, I would have talked about the power law model being the ideal method for allocation (imo),
Using the same approach, I estimated numbers for algo snipers as well for each bid level.
Two assumptions:
> All the folks will be turning on their algo snipe.
> Multiplied numbers for each level a bit based on my own reasoning.
We know 25K $USDC will be used for sniping and based on that below numbers are calculated,
Hope this post gives clarity for two questions running in people mind,
1. To know whether you want to sign-up for algo snipe or not
2. Estimated allocation for Bid levels from algo sniping
Incase you find any mistakes in the calulcations, do let me know so I can correct it.
gBid.


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