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I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This week's FOMC is not a riddle of "whether to raise rates," but a situation of "how to communicate after the hike." CME gives a 92%+ probability of a 25bp rate hike in September. Inflation is sticky, oil prices are biting, and Powell wants to establish credibility. Staying put would hurt trust, so my bottom line: the highest probability is a 25bp hike early Thursday morning.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged