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jason.dev
Circle is up 7.85% today, and the move is almost entirely tied to shifting expectations around the CLARITY Act.
Just three weeks ago, the mood was very different. Circle had its worst day since going public after a leaked Senate draft suggested a ban on passive yield for stablecoins. The stock dropped 20% in a single session, falling from $126 into the low $90s. That reaction made sense. Around 95% of Circle’s revenue comes from interest earned on USDC reserves, so any restriction on yield would strike directly at the core of its business.
What changed is the narrative coming out of Washington. This week, White House economists released a report pushing back against the idea of a yield ban. Their conclusion was that such a policy would barely move the needle on bank lending, increasing it by just 0.02%, while actually creating a net welfare loss. That effectively undercut the main argument for restricting stablecoin yield.
The market took that as a strong signal. Investors are now pricing in a higher chance that the CLARITY Act moves forward without that provision, which explains the steady recovery in CRCL.
The next key moment is the Senate Banking Committee markup, expected in late April. Prediction markets like Polymarket are currently putting the odds of passage at around 63%. If the bill advances without the yield restriction, Circle has a clear runway to reclaim the $120 to $130 range.
$CRCL $USDC
@OKX星球 @OKX Orbit #DailyOrbit
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