Where can the next top of Bitcoin occur? If I remember well, I already covered this topic back in the past. But in this post, I will delve more trying to offer you a more detailed and reconstructed analysis. Big spoiler: there aren't moonboy targets in here. Bitcoin, from its inception, has outperformed traditional assets, surpassing them in terms of intrinsic features and resilience. Fueled by a mix of its inherent qualities and speculative fervor, it has produced huge gains during market cycles. 🔸Price performances If we analyze the performance from each cycle low to each cycle peak, we approximately have: - First Halving cycle in 2012 -> 57000% - Second Halving cycle in 2016 -> 11.500% - Third Halving cycle in 2020 -> 2000% Crystal clear that despite massive gains we're having diminishing returns. This is very well valid for the upside but also for the downside with diminishing losses: - 2014/15 Bear market: -86% - 2018/19 Bear market: -84% - 2022/23 Bear market: -77% 🔸Fundamental connotations The reason behind this is simple: as new money flows into Bitcoin and global awareness grows, the market becomes more mature. The maturation process also includes the so-pronounced regulations, which I believe are a key part for the global adoption of both Bitcoin and altcoins, at the expense of decentralization. TradFi companies in fact, are reluctant to join an unregulated market. Everything that happens before is pure speculation and not real utility-driven demand. This isn't bad, as most can think. Without speculation, we wouldn't have astronomical gains and interest in this space which are propedeutic ingredients for realizing the recipe of future growth. We can suppose that after this big step of regulations, both Bitcoin and altcoins will find their fair value, which is highly unpredictable as many factors come into place: - National currencies devaluation - Geopolitical connotations - True utilities discover Bitcoin can also achieve mind-blowing targets in the next decade, but if inflation continues to rump up (likely) the Harakiri, as you can imagine, is served. "But they stopped to print money, Quantitative Tightening has worked out " No mate, it didn't and even admitting it did, there are other factors that lead to hyperinflation. Look at the world around you and I'm sure you'll find the right answer. 🔸Price projection Here we are with the juiciest part of the post: "Where can Bitcoin top in the next bullrun?" Premising that nobody truly knows and these aren't financial advice but just a "me-to-you" reasoning, we can make some suppositions. Given the diminishing returns theory, it is totally fair to hypotesize a Bitcoin top which produces less gain than the previous one. "But bro, institutions are finally here..they will pump Bitcoin to Pluto." What most people fail to realize is that institutions don't need a +10.000%. They're 50% is way different from a retail investors' 50%, it's more than enough. And this is where the big match will be played. So what is my "prediction"? My take is that Bitcoin will top in the yellow area, therefore between 87K and 110K. Want a more specific target? Slightly less than 100K, maybe 90/95K..this should do the psychological trick for inducing people believe 100K is absolutely next before the crash. Can it go higher? Well, maybe. But I will definitely scale out from the yellow area, no greed allowed. 🔸Final closing With Bitcoin producing a new ATH, the altcoin space will likely turn once again in full euphoria mode, therefore many "Xs" will be printed. Printed on the screen for the majority, printed on banks for those who will be wise and grateful for the returns we don't see in any other market. Because everything will be temporary before another crash will occur, this has to be fixed in your mind as part of market cycles and human psychology. The next tornado narrative will come out in full force during the past highs..will you be sucked into it or reach financial safety by pressigìng the sell button? It's all up to you.

It was January 2024.