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CPI will be released tomorrow night, and the September rate hike script might need to change Brothers,the US July CPI will be announced tomorrow night, Wednesday.This data basically serves as the referee for whether the Fed will raise rates in September. Everyone is holding their breath. Let's talk about the current pricing situation: CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% probability of no change in September, and a 44.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike, almost a 50-50 split. This means that if the data deviates even slightly, the market pricing will have to be reset. Expectations:Overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core at 2.5%. The numbers look like a continued decline, right? But don’t celebrate too early. Mid-July saw a spike in Middle East geopolitical tensions, pushing oil prices back above $80. If energy rebounds, the overall CPI will be hard to look good. This is the variable. Simply put,there are three scenarios: Data below expectations → rate hike expectations collapse, the dollar plunges, BTC and ETH lead the charge, risk assets rally; Meets expectations → a night of waiting in vain, the market continues to shrink and oscillate; Exceeds expectations (especially core services) → the 44% rate hike probability jumps to 60-70%, and the market will likely take another hit. Looking back at the market, BTC is hovering around 64,000, ETH just under 1,900, SOL around 76. These three have been slowly declining these past two days, with funds clearly cautious before the data, all in risk-off mode. Here’s my personal view, just sharing,not advice: $BTC at 64,000 is a critical level; if it breaks, look down to 60,000-61,000; if CPI is favorable, it will first test 68,000 above. $ETH has always been weaker than BTC, with some support near 1,850, but if it really crashes, ETH usually falls harder. $SOL is the worst, dropping from 294 to 76, with no end to the knee-jerk cuts; strong support is near 73, breaking that is unthinkable; but conversely, if there’s good news, the rebound from such a deep drop will be the strongest. #AIInfraEarningsWatch