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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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三星跌完海力士跌,但这次真不一样 今天早上,韩国股市又崩了。 韩国KOSPI指数一度跌超5%,触发熔断。SK海力士跌超10%,三星电子跌超6%。 一个月,SK海力士跌了35%,三星跌了23%。 你身边有没有这种朋友——年初追高韩国芯片股,喊着“AI时代内存为王”,现在看着账户,整个人都不好了? 别急着割。 高盛今天发了一份报告,说了一句话: “韩国股市已经抛售过度。” 他们把KOSPI未来12个月目标价定在12000点。逻辑很简单——内存周期可能比以往更强、持续时间更长,而现在的股价根本没反映出这一点。 高盛还重申三星电子和SK海力士“买入”评级,目标价分别看49万韩元和350万韩元。 你可能觉得高盛在唱多出货。但看两组数据: 第一,库存。 截至二季度末,三星和海力士的DRAM及NAND库存只有2到4周。正常水平是4到5周。历史上每次下行周期前,库存都在10周以上。 现在的库存,连正常水平都不到。 第二,产能。 三大原厂2027年的DRAM和HBM产能,全部卖光了。客户最终拿到的货,只有他们最初请求的60%到70%。 2027年,业内已经在喊“存储最缺一年”。 更狠的是一件事—— 苹果想去长鑫存储压价,被拒了。 苹果,全球最强势的采购方,过去谁能拒绝苹果的降价要求?长鑫存储直接说:报价不能低于三星和海力士。 连备胎都没有了。 DRAM的议价权,已经从终端厂商完全转到了存储企业手里。 这不是周期。这是结构性短缺。 那问题来了:内存供给持续紧张,谁才是真正受益的? 芯片公司? 三星和海力士在涨价——7月DRAM合约价环比涨14.3%,创历史新高。但股价在跌。因为市场担心“AI资本开支见顶”,把芯片股当成了AI周期的衍生品一起砸。 设备公司? 东京电子、ASML这些卖铲子的,订单排到2028年。但设备公司的估值已经打满了预期,再涨需要超预期的东西。 还是AI产业链? HBM全部被英伟达包圆,三大原厂2027年HBM产能售罄。但AI芯片公司自己的股价也在调整。 我的看法很简单—— 这一轮内存周期,真正的受益者不是某一个环节,而是整个“存储”这个资产类别本身。 DRAM正在从“配件”变成“战略物资”。 以前内存是 commodity,价格周期三年一轮。现在内存是 bottleneck,谁有货谁说了算。 苹果压不下价、产能提前两年卖光、库存只剩两周——这不是周期顶部该有的样子。 最后说句实在话: 市场把韩国芯片股当AI概念股在砸,但内存的基本面跟AI叙事是两个东西。 AI可以降温,但服务器要内存、手机要内存、汽车要内存。DRAM的需求是刚性的,供给是垄断的。 三星和海力士一个月跌了23%和35%。高盛说这是过度抛售。 你觉得是错杀,还是周期见顶? $SKHYNIX $SKHY $SAMSUNG #内存卖方市场延续,韩股能否迎来反转?
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Why would BlackRock, Visa, and DTCC all act as “security guards” for a public blockchain that hasn’t even launched its mainnet yet? If there’s a public blockchain that hasn’t launched its mainnet, hasn’t processed real transactions, and hasn’t verified its performance—would you invest in it? Most people wouldn’t. But BlackRock would. Visa would. DTCC would. Mastercard would too. On August 5th, Circle announced a list: BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, Western Union, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa. Eleven companies. All top-tier players in Wall Street and global payments. A public blockchain that hasn’t even launched its mainnet has already gathered half of the global financial infrastructure. This isn’t just to “show support.” This is to act as validators—the ones responsible for network security. Think carefully about this logic: Generally, public chain validators are miners, stakers, or tech geeks. But Arc’s validators are BlackRock, Visa, and DTCC. Institutions that rely on network integrity are also responsible for guarding network security. This isn’t “institutions just endorsing,” this is “users as guardians.” DTCC—the clearing hub for almost all securities trading in the U.S.—acting as a validator means what? It means Wall Street’s settlement layer is moving onto Arc. Looking at the specific collaborations, it’s even more explosive than the list itself: BlackRock: Deploying BUIDL tokenized money market funds on Arc. Institutional investors can complete subscription, redemption, and fund deployment all on-chain in one place. Traditional fund subscriptions require T+2 settlement, paperwork, and a bunch of processes—on Arc, a smart contract handles it all. DTCC: Plans to tokenize DTC-custodied assets on-chain by the second half of 2027, using stablecoins for native settlement. This is no small matter—DTCC handles securities clearing worth trillions of dollars across the U.S. BNY Mellon and Standard Chartered: Exploring integration of digital asset custody, forex, and repo infrastructure. This isn’t a “trial run.” This is “moving the core business on-chain.” Here’s another detail. Circle held an Arc token presale in May this year, raising $222 million with a valuation of $3 billion. a16z led with $75 million. BlackRock, ICE, SBI, and Standard Chartered Ventures all followed. These institutions aren’t new to investing. They’ve invested twice—once as investors, once as validators. Some say: Isn’t Arc just a permissioned blockchain? What about decentralization? But have you thought about it—what Wall Street really wants isn’t “decentralization,” it’s “trusted centralization.” Regulators want compliance, institutions want security, clearing needs certainty. Arc’s validator model directly elevates compliance standards to Wall Street level. Ethereum solves “trustless.” Arc solves “trustworthy.” These two serve different groups. Circle’s Q2 earnings just came out: revenue $701 million, USDC circulation $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. On-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year. USDC is still growing. But USDC’s narrative is about to change. USDC used to be a “stablecoin”—a payment tool, a trading medium. After Arc launches, USDC will become the native currency of Wall Street’s settlement layer. If USDC is Circle’s present, then Arc is what Circle is trying to define—the next-generation financial settlement layer for Wall Street. Arc’s mainnet launches on September 16th. At that time, watch for two things: First, whether BlackRock’s BUIDL really takes off. Second, whether DTCC’s tokenization roadmap advances. If these two happen—then the stablecoin narrative will no longer be about “payments,” but about “settlement.” And USDC will be the native currency on that settlement track. A public blockchain that hasn’t launched its mainnet has gathered half of Wall Street as validators. This isn’t a technology story. This is a power story. $BTC $CRCL $COIN #Circle财报后押注Arc,USDC能否迎来新增长?

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