Публикация

I am Cige. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have shifted from the magnitude to the direction, with both the rate hike and rate cut camps revealing their positions simultaneously, a rare situation in many years. The Fed is split into two factions The rate hike camp, led by Logan, believes that interest rates should be slightly higher, as inflation has been above 2% for more than five years and current policies are not restrictive enough. The rate cut camp, represented by Waller, warns that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and indicates support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting based on current information. Chair Wash has not indicated a direction, stating that the 2% target remains unchanged and decisive action will be taken if necessary, refusing to provide forward guidance. The September path will be determined by two CPI reports before the meeting. Market pricing still clearly favors rate hikes, with no pricing for rate cut proposals yet. Impact on BTC In the short term, uncertainty is the biggest negative. Both extreme scenarios of rate hikes and rate cuts are on the table simultaneously, making it impossible for the market to price a single direction, so funds choose to hedge and wait. BTC is oscillating between 62,000 and 63,000, lacking momentum for a breakout. In the medium term, regardless of which path is ultimately taken, it is beneficial for BTC. The rate hike path strengthens the narrative of fiat currency credit erosion, while the rate cut path directly releases liquidity. The September path will be determined by two CPI reports before the meeting, meaning the inflation data from August and September will directly decide the Fed's next move.what next Between the market’s one-sided bets and the committee’s spectrum of divisions, the space for CPI to decide is larger than ever. Under the rate hike path, BTC faces short-term pressure but the medium-term narrative is strengthened. Under the rate cut path, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release. CPI data will be the key variable in deciding the direction.