Postingan

The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007. When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again. JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%). The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September. Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision. Two things pull the other way: · US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver · The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal. So the tug-of-war is playing out live: · "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds · ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included. When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now? #30YrYieldTopOrStart