Postaus

Inflation cooled right into a Fed that’s still acting hawkish. And now the market is fighting with itself. June PCE: headline -0.1% MoM, first drop since 2020. Core +0.1% MoM vs 0.2% expected. YoY headline fell from 4.1% to 3.7%. Core held at 3.3%. On paper, that’s clean disinflation. Growth tells a different story: Q2 GDP came in weak at 1.5% vs 2.1% expected. But final sales to private buyers jumped 3.9% — strongest since early 2023. Claims ticked up to 197k. Drag was from gov spending and inventories, not the consumer. The Fed held 3.5%–3.75% for the 6th meeting. 3 voters wanted a hike. Softer prices hurt the hawk case, but strong demand keeps it alive. Sept hike odds: 64%, up from 56%. Here’s what most miss: stocks and crypto rallied on relief. $BTC back toward 65k. S&P +1.7%. Bonds did the opposite. 30Y Treasury broke 5.2%, highest since 2007. Long money thinks inflation isn’t beaten yet. Two markets, two stories. They can’t both be right. One PCE print isn’t a trend. July data decides if this is real or just an oil blip. When stocks say "cut" and bonds say "not yet" — who do you trust? #SoftPCEStrongDemand @OKX Orbit #DailyOrbit #AIStoryDiverges