I’d say TGE main problem is an attention span issue.
The user pool is small — and it’s not really growing fast enough to sustain all the new projects launching every week.
So what happens is: money and attention just rotate between the latest hype projects. Each one blows up fast, burns out even faster, and then everyone moves on to the next shiny thing.
The cycle keeps repeating, and nothing really sticks long enough to build lasting value.
This makes no sense. The data here does not tell a clear story.
OP tries to claim that "Big bang TGEs are dead," but half of the "Strong TGEs" are up, half of them are down. And by proportion, most of the successful tokens are "Strong TGEs."
And then the bottom left quadrant of "weak TGEs" only has 8 entries in it, when it should have more like 1000 entries—most TGEs are weak and have negligible hype. That makes it more obvious that Zora and Virtuals are outliers, which is not a strategy.
There is no simple story to tell about how to launch a successful token. Definitely nothing that fits on a Hallmark card. "Launch small and accrue value over time" is another way of saying, "be a sleeper hit," which is not actionable advice.
If people are excited about your token, you cannot launch low. That is a fantasy. If you launch Monad at $500M, it will pop up to multi-billion valuation the next block. You're just giving away money to snipers. It's no different from memecoin launches or NFT mints. If the market believes you're worth X, you're gonna be priced at X, like it or not.
But while I disagree with the analysis of OP, the vibe is clearly dead-on. The rotation of hot money out of the altcoin market and into the equity market over 2025 has challenged a lot of TGEs. But I tend to think these things are all cyclical. People have short memories in crypto, but I remember many points in past cycles where alts were weak, and every time people tell themselves "well that's it, it's finally over, alts will never again catch a bid."
I don't worry too much about that.
But in the meantime, entrepreneurs have to keep building, cycle in, cycle out. My advice to them: focus on product, retain your team, treat your community well, and don't mistake your token price as your report card. Remember what you're building and why you're building it, and trust that if you build something that your users love, the market will ultimately reward you.
Just might take longer than you once thought.
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