Global bond markets but particularly US and Japan continue to be the major focus
In the fiat world, the whole ponzi is held together by the magic fairy dust of confidence
Belief in responsible government and the credibility of currency
2008 was the end game for the fiat system but the adjustment and deleveraging required was simply too painful, so governments and central banks artificially inflated the assets which were the collateral underpinning the system
Today, the BoJ own circa 50% of their domestic bond market
The ECB circa 30%
The Fed circa 20%
Those percentages over time will necessarily rise as they monetise the debt
The default came and comes via the stealth debasement of currency which has been subtle enough to maintain the magic fairy dust of confidence
Boomers who didn’t/don’t understand Bitcoin more worryingly didn’t understand the mechanics of debt driven fiat economies
Their equity and property portfolios that made them rich they assumed was a result of their genius and skill
They scoffed at the volatility of Bitcoin whilst still thinking government bonds were the “safe haven” benchmark investment because governments who are true sovereigns can never nominally default
Yet they overlooked the fact the the currency value of bond holdings has been in persistent decline
That awareness and perception is starting to shift and is a seminal moment for Bitcoin
This isn’t a doomer post
Bond yields will be capped via the financial repression tricks and magic performed by treasuries and central banks
Yet as the tricks are understood, flows will rotate out of fiat currency bonds into harder assets, including stocks, gold and crypto
Bitcoin as the hardest asset will outperform everything
These big shifts in macro regimes and flows often come with a lot of volatility as they induce uncertainty and challenge conventional investment wisdom
Yet I think we’re witnessing a paradigm shift in the macro dynamic which will be an “aha moment” for investors in relation to Bitcoin
We started London Crypto Club to educate on the investment potential of Bitcoin as a result of this inevitable end game for the fiat system
It’s unfolding perfectly
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