37度呀
37度呀
BTC holder since 2013 Building @SpiderPool_com 创业老兵|币圈踩雷达人|远洋捕捞体验者|2016交易所|2017挖矿|2022暴雷破产|2026AI机房/OKX最高排行第9交易员 首创流动性交易，擅长Liquidity Hunting
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This wave of altcoins, an excellent top escape 🫡
When Bitcoin first surged to 86k, I was probably the first on the entire network to warn about a potential 10,000-dollar pullback and to reduce or clear altcoin positions. Today, altcoins took another waterfall plunge, once again confirming my judgment.
The 3-day correction in altcoins is a real drop adjustment, which may escalate to a weekly adjustment. This is a very good opportunity to add positions in strong altcoins.
Also, my long position at 802 just got filled. I might still get trapped later, so I'll hold for now. If trapped, it might be around 78-79k, unless a black swan event occurs. The main force's next target is to break 90k; currently, it's still gathering strength.
$GOOG increased position at 275, continuing to enter later on my own, my cost is 307, with a 28% position
1. Technically, the daily, weekly, and monthly charts are all oversold, showing a very strong rebound demand. It has dropped 33% from the high point. Whether for long-term positions or short-term rebound speculation, it has entered a very cost-effective level.
2. In the big picture, if the AI direction is correct and there is no bubble burst, Google has the strongest technical team in the world. I believe once its AI agent is launched, it will spread like wildfire. It is entering the AI track from search, and I think at least its own technology and user scale are not issues, unless AI is falsified, which is an industry risk, not a company-specific risk.
3. Sentiment-wise, it can be said to be extremely pessimistic and fearful. Funds are fleeing wildly. Google, once chased by everyone, is now abandoned like a rat crossing the street.
4. My personal plan is to trade in waves, lower the cost, finally free up some funds, reduce the position, and continue to bottom-fish in crypto.
If you like entering later, welcome to join the family 😀
$UNI is very strong
1. Because Binance still hasn't opened withdrawals, it means the missing coins haven't been replenished enough. Once withdrawals are opened, the strong opportunity will disappear and it will follow the overall market.
2. UNI and ETH share the same wallet code. ETH withdrawals have already opened, but UNI hasn't, which can help support my judgment.
3. Looking at the UNI spot order book, there really isn't enough buying power.
7.02 million coins were stolen, worth over 50 million dollars. The 2% depth is only about 2 million. The average price the hacker sold at was 5.45. If Binance quickly buys back from the secondary market, it will directly pull the price up sharply, so it mainly depends on OTC. The secondary market can only absorb a little, but OTC dealers mainly buy slowly from the secondary market.
So, you know, if the coin replenishment happens too quickly and the price rises too high, I will reduce my position a bit to contribute a small effort to easing liquidity tension 😀
Why was Binance hacked, but the ones that died were other small and medium exchanges?
Why was Binance hacked, but the ones that died were other small and medium exchanges? 1. First, look at Binance's net inflow data in the days after the hack (Figure 1) 1030, the day of the hack, net outflow of 6.3 billion, this data matches 1101, the first day of withdrawal reopening, net outflow greater than 6.2 billion (top 50 coins) 1102, the second day of withdrawal reopening, net outflow greater than 2.6 billion (top 50 coins) 1103, the third day of withdrawal reopening, net inflow of 3.3 billion (the 3rd is not over yet, top 50 coins) The outflow in the first two days of withdrawal reopening is estimated to be close to the 10 billion level, which is also epic, equivalent to an FTX, equivalent to at least 10 small and medium exchanges now. The coins withdrawn are mainly stablecoins. Some funds without faith in the industry probably won't return in the short term. On the third day, Binance's fund inflow turned positive, showing confidence in Binance. Binance has passed the risk of a bank run but liquidity is still tight and must quickly restore 100% reserve proof. I see even UNI has not reopened withdrawals. Therefore, it is inferred that from 1030 to 1102, all exchanges were likely experiencing fund outflows, not just Binance. Based on my previous experience working at exchanges, this is typical. Such an epic-level hack affects the confidence of the entire industry. Although Binance can avoid a bank run, the fear of withdrawal suspension, I believe, always looms in everyone's mind. Some small and medium exchanges will have even more severe outflows. 2. Accelerated outflow of stablecoins (Figures 2 and 3) Starting from 1030, stablecoins clearly accelerated outflows. In just four days, USDC and USDT decreased by 3 billion, and
Let's talk about the recent market direction judgment
Regarding the aftershocks of the Binance hack, the midterm elections, Anthropic's IPO bloodsucking, etc.
Currently, I have a 9-level long spot position. Last week, I bought some MSTR and CRCL again at the recent pullback lows, so the cost basis for both has decreased a bit. I reduced some of my HYPE and UNI holdings because they have risen too much.
1. $BTC has entered a weekly-level correction. The 3-day and weekly closes look very bad, and the monthly close was also expected. I previously said it would rise for 3 months and then correct for at least 1 month, possibly up to half a year. From a technical perspective, BTC is very likely to enter a deeper correction.
2. $ANT's IPO is a bloodsucking event for crypto; I still maintain this judgment.
3. $ETH Binance hacker laundering coins has just begun. The strong phase for ETH should be over. My short ETH position is still stuck. Some fans "mock" me, but it's okay. I had many chances to sell during this process, but I want to verify my judgment. Just relying on General Jin.
4. I am not optimistic about the US stock market rebound; tonight confirmed this, but I still stand by the judgment in the red box in the picture.
5. From a liquidity perspective, BTC's main force has momentum to go down first but also short-term demand to rebound. The earliest might be after the midterm elections (which is unlikely), or at the slowest, after ANT's IPO. After the aftershocks of the Binance 10/30 hack subside, funds may slowly come back.
The hacker has already smashed all the altcoins, really smashing without regard to cost. For example, $5 million worth of PROM only got back 0.03 ETH... The selling pressure on altcoins is gone, and with Binance filling the gap, things will hold up for a while.
The hacker's next step is mixing coins and converting to BTC, currently swapping SOL for BTC, and next will swap out ETH.
So, you will see SOL/BTC and ETH/BTC face pressure one after another. If you want to short the exchange rate, this is an opportunity with high certainty to earn coins.
Bitcoin is 18 years old, grown up, but still the same as when it was one year old: exchanges are still hacked, most people still run without private keys, most people still haven't read the white paper, most people still don't know how to hold it. It is still considered useless, but uselessness is its greatest use.
$UNI was set to sell 25% at 7.31 yesterday. After playing basketball, I received a notification that the trade was executed, this is part of the trading position. The overall position is close to 17% profit, which I think is a bit too fast... Let's do a swing trade, wait for Binance's gap to be filled, then buy back, while also closing the hedge position.
This is after I reduced part of my HYPE position, now reducing part of altcoins.
Next week, the US stock market is expected to rebound, but it may not reverse, and the aftershocks of 10/30, I believe, won't disappear so quickly.
Today Binance opened withdrawals, but it wasn't taken as good news, even BNB showed little movement, indicating the market is still panicking. Monday's crypto market may not follow the US stock market, probably even more panicked.
Be cautious with swing trades, I suggest not to follow blindly
Do you hold any of the coins listed in the table? These are all coins stolen from Binance that have not yet been fully replenished. These coins will be strong before the replenishment because Binance's replenishment demand supports the market. Once replenished, the buying pressure will instantly disappear, and then the coins will weaken or follow the general trend.
Stolen small coins will definitely be strong first and then weaken.
Many people asked me today why UNI, AAVE, LINK, etc. are so strong; this is the answer.
Binance can only slowly accumulate through large OTC orders and simultaneously in the secondary market, usually by splitting large orders into smaller ones or using iceberg orders. Small coins have poor liquidity, so accumulation is slower. Even those doing OTC need to accumulate coins and need liquidity. The fastest way is to buy from the foundation, but it's not always possible to buy large amounts.
Check which coins you hold and see what opportunities or arbitrage chances there are. This window of opportunity is very certain. Before Binance announces 100% reserves, complete your operations. It’s estimated to be a few more days.
Teacher, my Bitcoin is set in the 76500-74500 range, Ethereum is set in the 2150-1900 range, and Uni is set to buy if it goes below 6.7; if it breaks 6, increase buying. All are spot positions. I hope you can help me see if I need to make any adjustments 😆
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I don't know your current position size, so I can't give very specific advice. If anyone wants to consult, it's best to provide existing position ratios, prices, risk tolerance, etc. The more dimensions, the better.
You can refer to the $BTC price range I posted today (see image 3). For long-term positions, your prices are fine. My spot cost is 75k. You can also watch for opportunities in Bitcoin's alternative MSTR; if there's a discount, you can allocate some. Sellers are more mature this round.
The prices for $ETH and $UNI are also fine, but note the special situation of these two being stolen coins this time. For small stolen coins like UNI, the price was dumped during the theft, then reversed sharply (V-shaped), showing strength, but after withdrawals open, they will follow market trends. ETH was strong before withdrawals opened, but weak after, as hackers started washing coins. It will likely drop for a while, with 500,000 ETH dumped on the market. Binance will open withdrawals tomorrow.
Refer to Btbit's stolen 510,000 ETH: it dropped during the theft, rose before the exchange gathered the coins, and once hackers started laundering, it dropped. So, I opened a short position yesterday, but noticed many more shorts opened today, haha, planning to exit when the opportunity arises.
$TAO is just a mini position, but this coin is quality air.
#37DegreePositionClinic Issue 11
