YANGMING.C
YANGMING.C
X：yangmingzb 没有其他平台账号 不带单 知行合一
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Around 9 PM, I wanted to short, but held back and just watched the price plummet. I kept refreshing X hard, but no one seemed able to explain what happened.
However, if you haven't chased after altcoins or bottom-fished in the US stock market these past two days, you probably outperformed 90% of people.
With such a sharp drop in US stocks, you can't expect an immediate V-shaped recovery. No need to rush; having avoided the extreme market moves, any move you make afterward will be a win.
Just a quick update
After seeing Binance hacked last Saturday, the market didn't continue to break down, so I closed all short positions. The plan was to close positions first to sort things out and pave the way for the upcoming rebound across various markets. I had been mostly short, but now to take the opposite direction, I need to switch my mindset.
Starting with crypto, I subjectively think it's currently in a position that's neither up nor down.
- On one hand, I don't dare to keep being bearish. I've been making money shorting for the past year, but I don't believe I can keep profiting from a single strategy. Although shorts have still been profitable in recent weeks, the holding experience has been terrible, feeling like walking a tightrope every day.
- On the other hand, I'm not bullish either. US interest rates are high, and no new funds are coming in. Many are hoping for a breakthrough and pullback in 2023, but it seems the current capital preference is different. Just look at Robinhood's last quarter earnings report to see how cold crypto is, and there's no sign of improvement for now.
- So, I remain on the sidelines in crypto, but of course, if a huge bullish candle appears, I will change my view immediately.
Regarding US stocks, I haven't made any moves either. Semiconductors haven't found a bottom yet. I'm waiting for a new volume-supported low in QQQ and memory stocks; if it doesn't come, I'd rather give up on this rebound. For bottom-fishing AI, there are two approaches: one is to find those with big drops, the other is to find those with good recent earnings. I haven't decided yet.
For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, I mentioned last night on X that I bought CQQQ and KSTR. Looking back today, I almost bought at the lowest point and have already made some gains.
Let's talk about something else
Hang Seng Tech dropped 5% today. I've been thinking about buying since the end of July but haven't taken action yet. Now it's time to spend more time researching.
Besides Hang Seng Tech, Tencent is also on my watchlist. The reason is simple: I personally believe that these big companies will take turns leading in AI application scenarios, and there won't be a single dominant player. For example, in the US stock market, it started with NVDA, then MSFT and META also caught up.
So the final question is when to buy. For Hang Seng Tech and Tencent at this price level, I'm definitely preparing for long-term holding, using time to gain space. For instance, I bought Hang Seng Tech at the end of 2022 and only broke even in 2024. I personally think Tencent follows a similar logic; the bottom will definitely fluctuate, and the next few months will give me enough time to operate.
Regarding the current price level, I personally just closed all my short positions. Two considerations: 1. I went out and don't have much time to monitor the market for taking profits; 2. The decline has been too sluggish, so I decided to exit first and observe. This might not be correct, maybe there will be an acceleration later.
So the strategy is to give up holding positions in this indecisive range, and wait for a wave of accelerated decline to bottom-fish again; also, the current price around 80,000 still depends on the external market's mood. Major coins appear unusually resilient compared to storage and semiconductor sectors. If this relationship breaks down due to further external market declines, I will have to reconsider my choices.
The above is the thought process of a pessimist who has been shorting continuously
Yesterday I attended an OKX event and heard Star Xu mention that OKX has been established for 13 years. Has it really been 13 years so quickly? Last night I also saw the news about SCB and CIRCLE investing in OKX. OKX has suddenly entered the world of traditional financial compliance.
Suddenly feeling emotional, it turns out time is the best remedy. Just like trading, if you can keep up without falling behind or losing big money, sooner or later you will encounter the market that belongs to you.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
In the past couple of days, while reviewing the market trends of the past month, I completely missed two waves of upward trends, which were also beyond my expectations. To sum it up in one word - path dependence.
- For the past year, I have been shorting continuously, naturally looking for shorting patterns and timing to enter on every rise. As a result, I overlooked the bottoming trends many coins showed after June, or the high cost-performance long positions.
- After the big drop at the end of June, referencing 2022 and 2024, I expected the market to fluctuate aimlessly for 4-5 months, but unexpectedly, it started a strong rebound in less than three months.
- At the same time, I spent a lot of time studying the US stock market. I didn’t make much money there, but in crypto, I ended up picking up peanuts while losing watermelons.
Although I did make some small profits from shorting, making big money still requires following the trend. Clearly, going long in the past month would have been a steadier and faster way to gain profits. As a trader, one should respect the trend and respect the candlesticks.
Q&A 2026-09-17
This answers the questions from the last post, with some brief categorization and subsequent market outlook - The market started to decline from the end of September last year, and now a year has passed. From the perspective of charts and time, it is currently at a relatively low level, so there should be no large short positions on mainstream coins going forward. Wait for opportunities to gradually turn bullish; if none come, just take a break - Looking back at the past few years' market trends, there are usually three to four smooth trend waves in a year. Being able to fully capture one or two of these trends in a year while controlling drawdowns is already very good. This is my goal, patiently waiting for the next opportunity - Controlling drawdowns: three points I can think of and am working hard to achieve 1. Reduce leverage, or even avoid leverage 2. Use isolated margin with stop-loss 3. Reduce trading frequency - How small capital grows, how to control position size, and how to manage funds When capital is small, you have to wait for trend markets; you can't make big money in choppy markets. Leverage is definitely necessary; when I started, I used 5-10x full margin leverage. Since leverage is used, stop-loss must be applied, and continuous trial and error is needed. The downside of this approach is obvious: if you keep stop-lossing due to trial and error and no trend market comes, what then? You can only do your best and leave the rest to fate. The best method of fund management is to isolate funds, open positions with isolated margin, don't put all your money in the trading account, operate multiple accounts/exchanges, and withdraw regularly - Fees: open positions yourself as usual
I wasn't feeling well last night and went to bed early, perfectly missing this wave of the market. I actually woke up midway to check the price and was a bit confused. I considered whether to chase or not but managed to hold back (guess I'm still inexperienced; other skilled pros jumped in during the US stock market session).
Waking up, I'm still a bit dazed, but I'm glad I haven't shorted the crypto market in the past month. Not losing money is like making a profit. Of course, this isn't the first time I've missed a market move, nor will it be the last.
I don't understand the upcoming market either. The US is doing YCC, crypto is surging, AI is at a high level, so I'll just look for chances to scalp some quick profits.
I don't know how many of my followers have full-time jobs. I have a full-time job in the tech industry, but I'm also preparing to resign.
In the next month, I plan to reduce my trading frequency and take my annual leave to travel around.
I don't understand the crypto market, and I'm still learning about the US stock market. Patiently waiting for opportunities to arise 🐶🐶
