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$ETH New news seen today
Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 Ethereum
And the timing is today
Normally, if the foundation is selling
The price should drop accordingly
But after Ethereum price fell below 2300
It quickly pulled back near 2330
Seeing 2,785 Ethereum seems like a lot
But in the huge crypto market, this amount is actually not much
Instead, it gives many retail investors an illusion
Institutions are selling
Should I sell too? Should I short as well?
What I want to say to everyone: don't be misled by this news
If you are bullish, open a position and set a stop loss, then just ignore it
If you are bearish, similarly open a short position and set a stop loss
My personal view is to go long at the 2300 level
Let me share my thoughts: since institutions are selling, why hasn't there been a big drop? Why would institutions sell at a support level? Why is the news about selling just over 2,000 Ethereum at the support level deliberately released? If Ethereum is expected to drop significantly later, why not sell more now?
Today's news feels more like a smoke screen
A smoke screen to mislead retail investors into shorting #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud previously achieved 82% growth, a figure truly worth noting.
However, I believe the real test of AI commercialization is not how fast revenue grows, but whether the revenue can cover the continuously increasing costs of computing power, data centers, and R&D investment.
If the cloud business continues to grow while profit margins and cash flow also improve, the case for AI commercialization will be much stronger.
If only investments keep increasing but returns lag behind, the market will sooner or later reassess the valuation.
In this week’s earnings report, what I most want to see is a balance between growth and profitability.
#谷歌云业务增长82% #AI投资回报#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
Looking at companies like Strategy that hold a large amount of BTC, I believe we shouldn't just focus on Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
Book profits can be impressive, but what really needs attention are financing costs, debt structure, share dilution, and the ability to withstand BTC price drops.
In a bull market, holding strategies tend to be amplified; when the market weakens, the capital structure better reflects the risks.
For companies related to crypto assets, how much BTC they hold is important, but how they hold it is equally important.
Do you think Strategy's biggest advantage is its BTC exposure or its financing capability?
#Strategy财报前瞻#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Samsung's Q3 profits are expected to surge nearly 8 times, with the full financial report soon to be revealed.
Samsung's Q3 profits are forecasted to grow significantly, with AI demand still supporting the memory chip market.
However, I think what deserves more attention than profit growth is: how long can this high growth last?
If AI server demand continues to expand, memory chips may continue to benefit; but if capital expenditures slow down and chip prices peak, the market might price in risks earlier.
The brighter the performance, the more we need to focus on the future, not just the past.
Do you think this AI chip rally is still in its rising phase, or has it already started to overextend expectations?
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍Price stuck near $2300, ETF net redemptions in October exceed $1 billion, and the originally scheduled Glamsterdam testnet upgrade on the 26th has been postponed again. Public opinion is almost unanimously bearish, with waves of pessimism.
However, there is different activity on-chain. About 170,000 ETH left exchanges in a single day, the largest outflow in nearly four months; staking volume remains at a historic high, exceeding 43.8 million ETH.
On the surface, funds are fleeing, but underlying chips are locked. This is not a simple emotional collapse, but a mismatch between short-term redemptions and long-term locking.
What holders really need to distinguish is noise from structure. Price volatility may be turnover or continued pressure. The answer is not in the shouting but in the data.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Let's talk about several highly anticipated popular stocks awaiting earnings reports this week:
$SKHY Hynix's earnings are basically recognized as exceeding expectations, so the stock price's technicals have shown signs of stabilization. Today +1.72%, RSI 37, price 140 has already risen back above MA7.
However, the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, currently showing a volume-shrinking bottoming trend. The earnings report is the day after tomorrow, and the market is likely focused on whether HBM4's market share can hold steady.
$xSNDK SanDisk is in an oversold but not yet rebounded stage. RSI is only 32, and it has retraced 31% from the 30-day high of 1806.
Today's rise is just a technical small rebound above the bottom of the box at 1213, and the volume is only half of the 7-day average, so it won't last. It depends on whether the earnings report the day after tomorrow gives a strong AI SSD guidance.
$HOOD Robinhood has fallen the most thoroughly after its hype faded. The stock price is close to the 30-day box bottom at 3.7%, down 24% from the 30-day high of 123, with MA7 (97) < MA20 (102) < MA30 (106), a standard bearish alignment.
The negative factors of the 7-day challenge period withdrawal wave and shrinking crypto business revenue are still being digested in the stock price, with no signs of bottoming. Instead of catching a falling knife, it's better to wait for the right side.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 【Ancient Whale Awakens, Selling Pressure Increases】
The ancient whale who bought 100,000 $ETH for $31,100 in 2015 has finally moved today. In the past 2 hours, 5,000 ETH were transferred out, of which 1,500 ETH, worth about $3.45 million, have already entered exchanges. The remaining 50,000 ETH have not yet moved, and this is the number the market will truly watch.
He sold half in 2016 at $5.47 each, making about $258,000, and held onto the other half for 11 years. At the current price of about $2,300, the remaining 50,000 ETH are worth approximately $115 million, with early costs almost negligible. Whether he sells now or not, it’s a choice to realize huge profits.
However, transferring to exchanges does not mean they have been sold yet. What can be confirmed now is that 1,500 ETH entered a CEX, and the destination of the other 3,500 ETH cannot be directly identified as selling. What is truly worth watching is that other early ETH holders have recently moved assets, and the market is beginning to face pressure from old players cashing out profits.
At present, this looks more like a selling pressure warning rather than a confirmed dump. Next, watch two things: whether the 1,500 ETH have actually been sold, and whether the remaining tokens continue to flow to exchanges. If deposits continue and ETH weakens significantly, then it indicates that ancient holdings are turning into real selling pressure.🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#DailyOrbit To pour some cold water first, when I see a large long position opened, my first reaction is not bullishness, but how long this position can hold. Core Trader 74 (0x68cb35…02d1e) opened a long on ETH with 25x leverage, with a notional value of about $431,200. This is a newly opened risk exposure, not realized profit; my judgment is that the direction is not the main issue for now, but this leverage has a low tolerance for error.
I’m not in a hurry to get excited for two reasons. First, roughly calculating initial margin by dividing the notional value by leverage, it’s about $17,200; if the price moves against the position by about 4%, losses could approach this margin; the actual liquidation price depends on margin mode, additional funding, and maintenance margin requirements. Second, a single wallet opening a long only shows someone willing to bet on the direction, it doesn’t prove there is sustained buying behind it. If the price doesn’t rise for a long time and then reverses, I speculate the hardest hit will be the high-leverage longs: even if the direction is eventually correct, they may lose the qualification to stay in the market first.
Of course, he might have caught it right. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after pullbacks, I will put away my doubts about the timing of this long, but I will not endorse a 25x risk-reward ratio because of it. What I will watch next is whether the price can hold steady and whether this address will continue to add to the position; don’t mistake willingness to bet for being right.If I Were the Main Force - Subjective Series (Short-term) #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
(Personal opinion, for reference only, not investment advice)
Too lazy to write in detail, also too lazy to analyze. I'll just write how I would operate if I were the main force.
Step 1: Sideways consolidation
The purpose of sideways consolidation is to attract more shorts, creating a false impression that the price can't rise. Ultra-short-term players will feel a lack of momentum, causing bulls to exit and shorts to add positions... keeping the price between 2310-2335 as a setup for the next step... The more short stop-losses above, the less money needed for the subsequent rally...
Step 2: Rally
The short stop-losses just nurtured are most likely between 2340-2350, this time aiming for those stop-losses... the price slowly moves up
2335->2340->2347->2358....
Step 3: Bull trap
The price quickly pulls up... 2350->2360->around 2385... Bulls in the market shout: "Bull is coming", crazily chasing longs, shorts who should stop-loss do so, many flip from short to long....
Step 4: Smash down.... (This is for later... you can ask in the comments)
Note: Don't rule out a fake drop downward after the consolidation... (just a smaller possibility)【Can the US military start fighting within 96 hours? Is this for real this time】
CNN, citing two US officials, reported that the US military in the Middle East is ready to act and can launch a new round of large-scale strikes within 96 hours once Trump gives the order. Potential targets could also expand to Iranian energy facilities, military bases, and nuclear sites. Don't mistake "ready" for "imminent war"; Trump has not made a final decision yet.
Last week, Brent crude oil $BZ rose more than 6%, reaching nearly a six-month high; on October 26, it fell back to about $115 per barrel, as diplomatic mediation gave the market some breathing room. The core of the trade is the risk of supply disruption, not blindly chasing gains just because of military news.
The real concern is the conflict expanding to energy infrastructure or further impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The potential time window mentioned is after the US midterm elections, but if diplomatic talks make progress, action could be delayed. Next, watch for actual military orders, whether energy facilities are attacked, and shipping data from the strait; before anything materializes, high volatility in oil prices is more worth watching than a one-sided directional move.#USStocks #Apple Last Friday was interesting: on the day the foldable iPhone Duo went on sale, $AAPL surged intraday to 351.73, with a market cap briefly hitting 5.1 trillion, momentarily surpassing $NVDA. Nvidia reclaimed the top spot by close, but only by about 20 billion USD.
The most surreal comparison: Apple’s P/E ratio is 45 with 16% revenue growth; Nvidia’s P/E ratio is 42 with 106% revenue growth, yet it dropped 6% in the past month. A company growing six times slower is valued higher, clearly money is shifting from AI chips to Apple.
Duo is sold out, shipments pushed to January, demand is solid but production capacity will constrain this quarter’s year-end results. Apple reports earnings on 11/2, Nvidia on 11/18; I’ll be watching these two guidance updates closely. Technically, the perpetual contract bottomed near 345 in recent days, 351.8 was last week’s high; I won’t chase before a breakout.
Which side are you on: Apple continuing as number one, or Nvidia taking it back?
Personal opinion, not investment advice$HYPE's recent performance has honestly been a bit disappointing😥
It used to rebound and even surge above $82, but now it’s been oscillating downward, with even $80 becoming a short-term resistance that needs to be broken again.
Interestingly, Hyperliquid's business remains quite active, but HYPE's price performance hasn't kept up.
There are two recent pieces of news worth noting:
First, Hyperliquid Strategies announced an increase in its stock buyback limit to $100 million. Note, this is a buyback of PURR company stock, so don’t mistake it for a direct buyback of HYPE.
Second, according to the current token unlocking schedule, another batch of HYPE will be unlocked on October 29, so market concerns about the increased circulating supply will likely persist for a while.
So, I’m not in a hurry to expect a reversal yet.
Platform profitability is one thing; whether the token can absorb the new supply is another.
If it continues to break below around 75, this round of correction probably isn’t over yet.
Let’s wait for the price to repair the structure first😇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Falling from 84876 to 79168, in this 2180-point pullback, I dug out my position diary and reviewed it again. The real focus of this drop should be the derivatives structure—did you notice that? I sat watching the candlesticks for a long time last night. BTC is now hovering around 80096. That so-called small rebound, honestly, looks more like the bears taking a breather rather than a confirmed trend reversal signal. I marked 79168 as the key support for this week because it is the lower edge of the previous dense trading zone. Once the daily candle closes below it, stop-loss orders and short-selling orders will combine forces, making the rhythm very uncomfortable. On the upside, 80500 is the position bulls must reclaim; if it can't hold above that, all rebounds can only be considered repairs, not a sign of strengthening. What alerted me is something at the contract level. During this decline, the perpetual funding rate quickly dropped from slightly positive to near neutral, indicating that leveraged longs are passively reducing positions rather than actively bottom-fishing. Open interest hasn't collapsed significantly, meaning shorts haven't massively closed out either; both sides are waiting for a direction. In this structure, volume is the only honest signal: a volume-backed recovery above 80500 indicates real buying interest; a low-volume grind upwards is likely a bull trap, followed by another retest of 79168 or even lower. I made two adjustments to my positions this week: first, I cut the chasing longs, leaving only the base position to observe; second, I moved my stop-loss from an emotional level to a structural level—better to get stopped out than to hold a losing position. I’m temporarily avoiding altcoins; until BTC’s direction is clear, risk appetite won’t pick up, and ETH and popular sectors’ elasticity is instead... #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report. The market is focused not only on revenue and shipment volume but on a landmark figure: whether the quarterly operating profit can surpass 10 trillion Korean won for the first time.
The core driver remains HBM. With strong demand for AI servers, HBM3E prices and gross margins are far higher than those of regular DRAM. SK Hynix, holding about 60% of the shipment share, has directly converted its technological advantage into a profit advantage. More crucial is HBM4: with mass production advancing and unit prices significantly higher than the previous generation, if major customers like Nvidia ramp up orders smoothly, new profit highs will not be the end.
However, concerns also exist. The storage super cycle is repairing the balance sheets of Samsung and Micron, while competitors are accelerating HBM4 certification and yield improvements; once supply tightness eases, SK Hynix’s pricing power will face a test.
Therefore, the real highlight of the Q3 report is not the “10 trillion” figure itself, but management’s judgment on the HBM4 shipment pace, 2026 price negotiations, and customer concentration risks. AI demand can drive profits to new highs again, but whether this record becomes a starting point is what the market wants to question.The project selling data has started using revenue to buy back tokens 🔮
Pyth DAO passed a 100% rule on October 8, using all revenue for buybacks.
Q3 revenue was $11.5 million, an 86.5% quarter-over-quarter increase.
But the DAO receives about 60%, with annual buybacks less than 1% of market cap.
Today it rose about 7% against the market, stuck around 0.076, trying to recover.
I think the bet is on it recovering 0.076.
If it doesn't recover and falls below 0.07, that's another story.
$PYTHNodes are withdrawing, and the coin price is crashing: Core DAO's fundamentals can't withstand the next bear market
The most critical contradiction for Core right now: the bull market narrative relies on BTCFi and SatPay for cash flow, but the actual on-chain revenue is almost negligible, with the two main pillars—network security and token value—both weakening. Validators have been stuck at 21 for a long time, the project's official nodes are continuously withdrawing, and the network lacks sufficient decentralization redundancy. Once a large-scale validator exit occurs, the network stability risk will rapidly escalate.
The coin price continues to weaken, having retraced significantly from its historical high, and market confidence keeps eroding. SatPay, which originally carried hopes for revenue buybacks, has been repeatedly delayed. Its partner Mobilum is a micro outsourcing fintech lacking core payment licenses in the US and UK markets. The underlying card issuance chain has previously collapsed, and large-scale commercial use is far off, leaving the expected fee buyback logic unsupported.
Institutions like BitGo and Valour are all service providers without primary VC locked tokens as ballast. During market downturns, institutions can shut down nodes or close business channels at any time. Coupled with the leftover selling pressure risk from the August reward vulnerability hard fork, on-chain transaction fee income is minimal, and the ecosystem lacks stable cash flow generation capability.
If the next crypto bear market arrives, with BTCFi sector heat fading and staked funds fleeing, Core—which lacks sustained cash flow, capital backing, and already has weak network validators—will face a huge fundamental impact and will struggle to withstand the systemic valuation cuts of a bear market.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When altcoins weaken, the first thing to watch isn’t the K-line, but "capital rotation" and "market breadth."
My ranking:
1) BTC dominance (BTC.D) stops falling and rebounds — capital starts moving from high-risk altcoins back to BTC, this is the earliest defensive signal.
2) ETH/BTC exchange rate weakens + altcoins rebound without volume — no strong rise, volume expands but price stagnates, indicating it’s not new money but a battle over existing holdings.
3) Stablecoin liquidity stagnates — no new money entering, rebounds rely on rotation, if it can’t hold, it’s a bull trap.
4) ETF capital flow marginally slows — institutional risk appetite cools down, often earlier than retail sentiment.
5) Meme/small caps break support first — they have always been risk thermometers; breaking previous lows basically confirms weakness.
A contrarian view: don’t panic only when BTC crashes hard. The real danger is BTC moving sideways while altcoins quietly decline — calm on the surface, bleeding underneath.
In terms of operations, at the early stage of weakening, first reduce leverage, cut positions, and lower the upper boundary of your grid; no rush to clear spot holdings, but swap weak narratives and high-unlock assets into BTC/ETH. Stop-loss and position management are more important than trying to time the top.
Long-term, I remain bullish, but "bullish" does not mean "fully invested all the time." Bull and bear transitions are never marked by a single big red candle, but by capital quietly relocating.#StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
Tomorrow night at 20:00 Beijing time is the $PYPL earnings call, with the report released before that. I think it's the hardest one to predict this week.
The numbers aren't scary: the market expects EPS of $1.31 (down 2.2% year-over-year), revenue around $8.71 billion, and the company has already said EPS will slightly decline this quarter.
What’s scary is the history. In the last 8 earnings days, the stock dropped 5 times; in February this year it fell 26.3% in one day, while options only priced in a 7.8% move then. This time options are pricing about a 7.2% move.
I’ll be watching two things: whether the brand checkout business that only grew 2% in Q2 can rebound, and the guidance going forward. Cleveland Research just downgraded it to Underperform a few days ago, so expectations aren’t low.
Binance perpetual contracts are now around 57, with resistance at 58 and 60 (where option open interest is most concentrated), and support at 54, which is the lower boundary of this month’s ascending channel.
$HOOD reports the day after tomorrow early morning; fintech is pretty lively this week.
Are you betting up or down? Just one word in the comments. I’ll post a follow-up with the answer after the results come out.
Keep your own records, DYOR, this is not investment advice $ETH
This morning I saw a message saying "An Ethereum ICO whale transferred 1,500 ETH to an exchange, about to dump," and my first reaction was, this has been shouted for years.
I checked on-chain, this address was created in 2015 and hasn't moved for 11 years. This time it moved a total of 5,000 ETH, 1,500 ETH went into the exchange, which at the current price of 2326 is just over 3.5 million USD, the remaining 3,500 ETH were transferred to other addresses with no sell confirmation yet.
3.5 million USD. ETH spot trades over 170 million USD daily, throwing this money in wouldn't even make a splash. Of course, a 740,000% unrealized gain would want to be realized, but this volume can't really move the market direction.
So I don't take it as a top signal. Whenever the old whale moves, people shout crash, but often after the panic the price just returns to the original trend line.
On the other hand, things are really slow, Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet activation has been delayed again, some warn that gas repricing will affect 13 DeFi protocols, and the mainnet fork might be postponed until next year.
I haven't held for 11 years, I find three months too long, so I have no right to tell others whether to realize profits or not.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 AI has not yet reached the most frenzied stage of the internet bubble era.
ARK Invest's view is that AI infrastructure may still suffer from underallocation of capital. Even though compute-related debt and chip-related debt offer very high yields, investors remain skeptical: where exactly is the end-user demand?
Imagine a fixed income team where someone finds the yields on compute and chip debt very attractive and wants to increase investment, but must first compete internally for more funds.
Management asks: who will keep buying this compute? Can future demand support the current investment?
This creates a contradictory situation: the investment opportunity looks good, but the capital has not fully followed.
During the internet bubble era, the market eventually entered an almost crazy state where many companies' valuations were no longer strictly constrained by fundamentals. The AI cycle may also reach a similar stage in the future, but clearly not yet.
It takes time to go from skepticism to frenzy. Investors' judgments, internal resource allocation within institutions, and market confidence in end-user demand cannot change overnight.
This time gap may leave room for excess returns in the AI infrastructure sector.
But high yields do not equal guaranteed profits; they may also reflect credit risk and demand uncertainty.
The AI story is not just about models and chips, but also about when capital truly believes that demand will materialize.$ZEC
ZEC is now at 1222, up 3.6% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 1238. At the same time, BTC is at 80340 and ETH at 2326, both moving less than 0.3% combined in a day.
The overall market is stagnant, but ZEC is pushing itself upward. I've seen this pattern a few times; ZEC never follows BTC's rhythm. When it falls, it falls harder than anyone, and when it rises, it pulls itself up.
Looking at the contract data, the funding rate is only 0.006%, with open interest at 130 million USD, which isn't crowded, and not many people are using leverage to boost it. This move is driven by spot buying.
My view is that the capital in the privacy sector hasn't withdrawn yet. Don't apply the general market logic to it; when BTC is sideways, it's these kinds of assets with their own stories that get rotated into buying.
My biased judgment is that as long as the overall market doesn't crash, ZEC is very likely to outperform the market.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 LOL, I've already gone all in on OKX's NO. Yesterday, I used AI to search the OKX market and compared it with Poly, and I found this: many prices on OKX are wrong. I don't know what their basis is. I've shared the wealth secrets with you all 😋 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Continuing the mainstream analysis from this morning!! Ethereum will rebound, but it will definitely fall again.
A new round of support level testing. Although there is buying interest at 2300 for Ethereum, the market reaction is actually not significant, indicating that short-term institutional and large investor funds have not fully returned.
In the previous article, I mentioned the FOMC meeting, which is actually about whether there will be a rate hike in October and whether the expectation of a rate hike in December will intensify.
Looking at this week's rate hike probabilities, 88.5% expect rates to remain unchanged, and 11.5% expect a 25 basis point hike. In other words, out of every 100 expectations, 89 bet on no rate hike, and 11 bet on a 25 basis point hike. Major institutions predict that US banks will maintain a rate hike stance, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase expecting no hike in October and a 25 basis point hike in December.
In summary, the data is easy to understand. To put it simply, there is a high probability of no rate hike in October, and the expectation of a rate hike in December is clearly heating up!! Additionally, US debt has already surpassed 40 trillion, crude oil has recently been rising with a slight pullback, and the US dollar index has also pulled back to around 101.5, which needs close attention.
If the US dollar index continues to break upwards, the crypto market will face a significant correction. Therefore, the mainstream trend in the near term is definitely bearish, at least until Wednesday or Thursday, with a fluctuating downward trend. The risk of short-term long positions is too high; those who can close long positions should do so first. Tonight, the US stock market is key!!
If Ethereum rebounds to around 2360 tonight, you can short directly, targeting 2280-2250 BTC falling below 80,000 is not about the price itself, but about who is selling.
The Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%, meaning Americans have been consistently selling at a discount. Saylor didn’t release a Tracker over the weekend, which the market interpreted as a pause in accumulation. Hayes just sold 49.24 million altcoins.
Putting these three signals together, it shows that the money is withdrawing from the US side, not that Asian retail investors are panicking.
My strategy: I don’t try to guess the bottom, nor do I chase shorts. I’ll wait until the premium turns positive before making a move. Woke up this morning to see BTC drop below 80,000 again, and my heart skipped a beat. This is already the second time recently that this round number has been lost; last week it was hovering around 83,000, and now it’s directly dropping.
What I’m more concerned about is another number: the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. Simply put, this indicator shows whether the buying price in the US is higher or lower than in Asia. A negative value means Americans are selling at a discount, not rushing to buy. For 33 days straight, this is no longer retail sentiment; it’s institutional money flowing out.
Looking at Saylor, he didn’t release Tracker information over the weekend, and the market immediately interpreted this as a possible pause in accumulation. This company has been almost the strongest bottom-line buyer of BTC over the past two years. Once it stops, many leveraged longs lose their psychological pillar.
Arthur Hayes is even more direct, having sold $49.24 million worth of altcoins. Altcoins crash first, BTC follows with a delayed drop; this sequence has played out several times this year.
My own approach is simple: I’m not trying to guess the bottom now, nor am I adding positions. The range between 72,000 and 75,000 below 80,000 hasn’t been tested yet; I’ll wait for the daily candle to close back above before discussing further. If I’m looking for signals, I’m watching two things: when the Coinbase premium turns positive, and when Saylor reports again.FOMC Week: The decision isn't important, the wording is deadly
This week the market is all waiting for the Federal Reserve, but what the crypto world really should ask is not "whether to raise rates," but "whether the money is still there."
CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October has exceeded 90%, but the probability of a rate hike in December has surged to about 68%. It's like the teacher not calling roll today doesn't mean there won't be a final exam.
$BTC is tugging repeatedly around the $80,000 mark, with four consecutive daily declines and trading volume continuously shrinking. It can't break above $81,000 nor fall below $79,000; both bulls and bears are waiting for a single sentence.
$ETH looks even worse, with over $1 billion net outflow from spot ETFs in October, most of which is from BlackRock's ETHA. While others are scooping water, it is sinking.
$ZEC is the most interesting — the price is slowly declining, yet the funding rate remains positive, with bulls paying to hold on. Watching these people is like watching ourselves a few months ago.
This FOMC won't provide answers. The real signals are: whether BTC can reclaim $81,000 with volume, and when $ZEC bulls will stop paying fees. Until then, watching the show is cheaper than betting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
BTC 四连阴，最低砸到 79,332，8 万这个关口来回拉锯。24 小时清算 1.54 亿美元、6.2 万人被抬出场，其中多单 1.18 亿——押涨的人还在挨打。 但真正该看的不是这些数字。短端利率 3.75%–4% 不动，十年期贴着 5%，本周议息按兵不动是九成共识，12 月加息却隐含 77% 的概率。很多人还在等降息，市场在给加息定价，这个分歧就是本轮下跌的全部原因。拿着短债白得五个点，凭什么去接一个四连阴的资产。 盘面里还有几个不太被人提的东西。美国现货溢价指数连续 33 天为负，机构买盘从 9 月底就没回来；上周四、周五两天 ETF 被抽走 7.73 亿美元，是 6 月 25 日以来最狠的单日流出。链上另一头更直白：小额钱包 30 天往交易所净转入从 55 亿美元升到 107.5 亿，半年最高；巨鲸的转入反倒从 59 亿掉到 38 亿。翻译过来就是散户在交筹码，大户捂着不卖。这种结构跌不快，但磨时间。 你现在是拿着五个点的短债看戏，还是满仓等这两天的结果？ 2018 年 12 月那轮我印象很深：加息落地，BTC 从 6,000 一路砸到 3,200 才停，真正的底出现在市场不The most telling signal in crypto this week is not a price move but a vacuum. Total open interest across the market slipped 1.15% in a single day to $1.394 trillion, while futures volume collapsed 39.82% to $877.08 billion. Yet $BTC held above $80,500, $ETH traded near $2,350 and $SOL hovered around $101, with price swings under 0.25%. Flat prices on vanishing volume is the signature of capital stepping back, not of a crowd rushing for the exits. Look at the positioning data and the pattern sharTo be honest, I hold this position firmly because I set rules for myself before entering: no guessing the top, only trading on the right side.
Here's the logic. $RLS surged over 40% from a low volume that day, but there's a detail — after the price hit 0.0033, although volume continued to increase, the price gains started to narrow, showing a "volume-price divergence" fatigue. Plus, with its small circulating supply and concentrated chips, this kind of pure speculative rally will fall faster than it rose once funds withdraw. I shorted at 0.002866, not betting on the top, but waiting for the "can't break through" right-side signal.
Adding to this, the macro environment has been cold these past two days: the Federal Reserve decision is imminent, oil prices remain high, BTC fell below 80,000, and the entire network's leveraged liquidations exceeded $550 million, causing risk assets to deleverage collectively. Small-cap coins like RLS took the hardest hit, dropping to 0.002441.
In the market, 0.0025 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding above means consolidation and digestion; breaking below points to around 0.0022. Operationally, take profits in batches and push the cost line for stop-loss; preserving profits is more important than anything.
$BTC $SOL #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ The current core issue with DOGE is that speculative long positions remain heavy, but there is a lack of incremental funds and new narratives to support them. The recent decline in long crowding is a marginal improvement but has not yet formed a trend of clearing. $0.17 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears: holding above it suggests a possibility of recovery to $0.19–0.20, while breaking below it expands downside risk to $0.16 or even $0.15. Large on-chain transfers are active but direction is unclear, so they cannot be used as a bullish indicator. Until the price recovers $0.19 with volume support or long positions are clearly cleared, oversold conditions alone do not constitute a reliable buying reason. 📉 Will Bitcoin Face Another Major Correction After the US Midterm Elections? ⚠️ Historical data raises an important question about Bitcoin’s potential direction after the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3. 📊 Looking at the previous two cycles: ▪️ 2018: Bitcoin experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 50% during the post-election period. ▪️ 2022: Bitcoin suffered a maximum drawdown of around 25% during the post-election period. Both cycles were followed by significant market co$DOOD surged strongly, nearly 60% gain on the leaderboard?
From the market perspective, DOOD quickly rose from 0.00137 to a high of 0.002485, then faced selling pressure and pulled back, indicating strong resistance above. After the spike, follow-up funds couldn't keep up and started dumping. The funding rate at -1.0627% shows many are shorting currently. From the smart money perspective, bears still dominate. According to whale data: both long and short large holders are currently at unrealized losses, with large holders mainly net selling and cashing out their chips.
So my personal trade is: short near 0.0024, target 0.0020, stop loss 0.0026.
[The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice]
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📊 On Friday, October 23, the three major U.S. stock indices showed divergence: the S&P 500 index closed at 7,623.68 points, the Nasdaq index at 25,955.34 points, and the Dow Jones index at 52,215.16 points. Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7%, while the Dow Jones rose 0.4%. 📉 This divergence is worth noting because it may indicate that investors are reassessing the profitability of different sectors rather than continuing to indiscriminately chase gains. 🔥 The first test: Can the valuations of tech companies be supported by real profits? 🧠 Artificial intelligence remains a key growth theme in the market, but investors' focus is shifting. In the past, the market was willing to pay a higher premium for growth expectations; now, investors are increasingly concerned with a practical question: how much revenue and profit can massive AI investments actually generate? ⚠️ If large tech companies' cloud business revenues continue to grow and profit margins improve, tech stocks may still gain new upward momentum. But if capital expenditure grows faster than revenue, the market may reassess these companies' valuations, even if the AI industry itself continues to expand. 💵 The second test: The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury yields. 📌 When the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, the stock market becomes more sensitive to interest rate changes. Meanwhile, the market is also watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions and officials' views on inflation and future interest rate paths First, let me be honest: it's not that I predicted this trade very accurately, but that I learned to follow the big trend and not fight the market.
Reviewing this wave, $CAP itself has already given signals — after a violent surge earlier, it consolidated at a high level, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all pressing down on it, volume shrinking, a typical "unable to rise" structure. More importantly, the overall market: with the Fed meeting this week, high oil prices, AI narrative fading, BTC dipped to around 79,000 over the weekend with a wick, risk assets collectively deleveraging, and over 400 million liquidations across the network. In this environment, altcoins are the first to be hit.
I opened a short around 0.108, capturing the high-level capital divergence plus market resonance, with the mark price dropping to around 0.076, riding this wave accordingly.
Next, it depends on whether $BTC can hold 80,000. If it holds and sentiment recovers, shorts will take profits in batches; if not, altcoins will face another round of decline. No chasing shorts, no bottom fishing, capital preservation first.
$ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This week is a very critical week because it is a key period for U.S. stock earnings reports. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Intel will release their earnings, and these MAG7 companies will determine the future of AI. Currently, the decline in U.S. stocks is mainly due to rising oil prices. Meta has started to reduce capital investment in AI, and the market is worried that in this macro environment, major companies will cut back on AI capital expenditures. Therefore, the AI narrative may come to an end, and AI-related storage, optical modules, cloud providers, etc., will correspondingly decline, leading to a continued downturn in U.S. stocks. Another major event is the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. Although the current consensus is clearly not to take any action, will Powell speak more hawkishly? Because the data released this month has been very unfavorable, although the FOMC will announce no rate cuts this time, I believe the market will interpret it as bearish because the current consensus for December is a rate hike! During this period, the market is expected to lack strong confidence. Additionally, Trump keeps emphasizing either to take out Iran or negotiate, and it is unclear what Trump will actually decide. So, from October through the midterm elections, I personally feel the overall market sentiment will be very unfavorable. Unless these U.S. companies report outstanding earnings, all exceeding expectations, and increase AI capital investment instead of reducing it, the U.S. stock market might see a rebound. But at present, this seems unlikely because oil prices have been high for so long, and stock prices have recently fallen so much. Can U.S. companies continue to increase AI capital expenditures? It should be noted that these deciHow are the warriors who hoarded $8.09 million in altcoins in early October doing? 🥷👇
Holding on while taking hits: Added $2.7 million in the past ten days, bringing the total position to $10.79 million, currently with an unrealized loss of $1.904 million
▶︎ $ZRO : 2.55 million tokens, entry price $2.08, current unrealized loss $970,000
▶︎ $WLD : 6.3 million tokens, entry price $0.5189, current unrealized loss $568,000
▶︎ $BAT : 5.77 million tokens, entry price $0.1981, current unrealized loss $288,000
▶︎ $CHIP : 20 million tokens, entry price $0.04928, current unrealized loss $77,000
Wallet address 0x1291d51f3DF319B3Ee6b028b134B7b367BB72EbEThe Ethereum Foundation's associated wallet sold 2,785 ETH within one hour at an average price of $2,304, converting the proceeds into stablecoins. However, on the same day, about 170,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges on-chain, and the staking volume hit a record high. Sellers are selling, lockers are locking, and ETH is stuck around 2,300, making it the most divided asset of this super week.
$BTC is around 80,000. It briefly dropped to 79,398 over the weekend before recovering. ETF weekly net inflow is 301 million, but the cumulative outflow in October is still 314 million, with a loss of 773 million over Thursday and Friday last week.
$ETH is around 2,300. The Foundation's associated wallet made its second large transfer in two weeks, cumulatively transferring out over 7,000 ETH. But ETFs have had outflows for four consecutive weeks, staking accounts for over 35% of supply, ETFs available for sale are withdrawing, and locked ETH is increasing. The daily close at 2,300 is a touchstone.
$SOL is around 99.9. ETFs have had net outflows for the third consecutive week, with 17.3 million in a single week. But RWA tokenized funds had an inflow of 453.5 million in one week, accounting for 73% of the top ten blockchains' total inflows. On-chain capital is coming in, ETFs are withdrawing, and 100 dollars is a repeated tug of war.
In short: FOMC, PCE, GDP, and tech giant earnings reports are all packed into this week. None of the three coins have secured a clean capital line; they are all waiting for the same thing—the super week to give a direction.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC crashed below 80K after 10 PM last night, hitting a low of 79.2K, then pulled back below 81K this morning, currently at 80.9K, basically unchanged in 24 hours.
This time it wasn't a short squeeze that drove it up. Exchange open interest only dropped slightly, funding rates are slightly positive, it dropped and then came back with little change in open interest, more like spot buyers are absorbing. Watch if 79K can hold first; don't chase longs if it can't reclaim 81K.
There are two reasons for the drop. Brent crude oil surged to $117 intraday on the 23rd, the highest since April. The other is large holders withdrawing; Hayes said yesterday afternoon that ETH, ENA, and UNI were all fully cleared, transferring $28.81 million worth of coins across platforms in two days.
ETH is now at 2365, with a low of 2282 last night. A giant whale with a $270 million ETH long was only $30 away from liquidation, added $9.21 million margin at midnight, pushing the liquidation price down to 2181. If that area breaks again, it could trigger a chain liquidation. ETH is weaker than BTC, don't catch the falling knife.
Today's gainers: ZEC at 1210, up over 3% in a day. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF has seen inflows for four consecutive trading days totaling about $51.5 million, but funding rates are negative and the long-short ratio is below 1, indicating shorts are holding on, a short squeeze in the making. Watch for the mainnet activation on November 5.
The Federal Reserve meets on the 27th-28th, with results released early morning Beijing time on the 29th. Don't forget to watch.BTC smashed through 80K then pulled back to 80.9K, open interest only dropped a bit, funding rate slightly positive. This trend looks like spot is absorbing, not like shorts getting liquidated and then pushed up.
If 79K doesn't hold, there's another drop below.
Hayes cleared ETH, ENA, and UNI, transferring out $28.81 million in two days, ENA is still being dumped into Cumberland.
ETH at 2365, the liquidation price for $270 million long positions is suppressed to 2181, that area is a minefield, don't rush to catch the dip.Before cross-chain transfers, don't just look at the feesWhy is it that even when you correctly predict the market trend, you don't necessarily make a profit in the end?Gold fell below $4000, and the discussion forum quickly splits into two camps: one says the opportunity has arrived, the other says the trend is broken. I think, for RMB investors, there is an even more immediate question often overlooked: what exactly are you buying, and what kind of exchange rate risk are you bearing?
International gold prices are quoted in US dollars, so local investors’ actual returns must also consider the RMB to USD exchange rate changes. Suppose the dollar gold price drops while the RMB weakens; the exchange rate might offset part of the decline. If the RMB strengthens, the converted pressure could be even greater. This is just a conditional analysis and should not replace current exchange rate judgments.
Additionally, physical gold, gold funds, and other gold-related products may have premiums, fees, and trading session differences. Everyone talks about “gold,” but the performance in accounts may not be the same.
I understand the unease caused by breaking an integer threshold. Money earned with hard work can be partially lost in just a few days, making it hard to be completely emotionless.
But especially at times like this, you shouldn’t draw conclusions about your holdings based solely on a US dollar quote. First, verify your purchase cost, pricing currency, and product fees before discussing whether to adjust. If you haven’t even clearly seen why you’re losing or where the loss is, rushing to answer in the comment section usually only increases anxiety.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 The shadowless surgical light on the operating table lit up, anesthesia had been administered, but the numbers on the monitor started to deceive. Microsoft's earnings report is like a heart ready for open-chest surgery—you can't just focus on the curve of the stock price's pulse; that's merely the surface ECG artifact. The real danger lies beneath the myocardium in the coronary arteries stretched to the limit by AI demand.
Azure's 41% year-over-year perfusion pressure last quarter looks like abundant blood flow, but surgeons know well that a good ejection fraction doesn't mean the microcirculation is smooth. The real issue is whether Copilot can monetize—that's the myocardial contractile reserve, the key to whether this heart can maintain autonomous circulation under AI's high metabolic state. If Copilot's cash flow recovery can't keep up with the capital expenditure infusion rate, it's like forcing extra load on ischemic myocardium; the faster it runs early on, the more severe the ventricular fibrillation later.
I'm not focused on the 41% figure; I'm watching the acceleration. Acceleration equals extra positive inotropic drugs, which can temporarily improve blood pressure but also increase oxygen consumption. Market expectations for Azure are already at a high dose; if this report only shows maintenance without acceleration, it's like discovering insufficient graft flow during surgery—the operation won't collapse immediately, but the monitor will start alarming.
Now look at the $xAAPL linked line. Apple and Microsoft in the AI narrative are like parallel circulations; systemic and pulmonary circulation must match. Microsoft's AI investment is the right heart pumping blood out; Copilot monetization is the left heart receiving oxygenated blood. Any increase in resistance on either side causes congestion in the entire circuit. Against the current backdrop of widening AI credit spreads, the risk of this surgery is not bleeding but ischemia of distal organs due to insufficient perfusion—those relying on narrative-driven capital infusion will be the first to feel the cold at the extremities.
My judgment is very calm: this is a high-risk second open-chest surgery, with many adhesions and poor visibility. Azure's growth is the aortic cross-clamp; if it holds, it's stable; if not, it leaks. Copilot monetization is the flow meter of the extracorporeal circulation machine; the readings don't lie.
Anesthesia is in place, the incision is made; now is not the time to listen to the roadshow ECG, but to see if there is blood in the real heart chamber. #microsoftq1azureandaiPharaoh's Market Watch]
The October FOMC rate decision is about to be announced this week. Can Bitcoin ride this tailwind to break through 84,000?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t pop the champagne yet. This FOMC isn’t a "free pass"; it’s a "life-or-death test." The market is betting on a pause, but Powell’s tone might be harsher than a rate hike.
First, let’s see how the market is positioned. CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in October is as high as 85% to 87%.
So wherThey think they are changing a reward clause, but in fact, at move thirty-seven in the midgame, they secretly shifted a pawn that had long been pinned down.
The interest ban is an iron rule. The issuer cannot pay interest; this pawn can never reach the baseline, and the promotion path is completely blocked. But the "presumed objection to third-party rewards" was removed—note, this is not lifting the ban, but rather softening the originally fixed square, allowing platforms to make moves in a gray area. Grandmasters reading documents never focus on wording, only on timing: finalized on October 21, effective January 18, 2027, with a fourteen-month interval in between, which is a rare extended contemplation. A long contemplation means the opponent admits the position is not yet fully resolved, and it also means all funders have fourteen months to redeploy their pieces.
The banking association's opposition is a standard defensive move: fearing deposit outflows, equivalent to holes being drilled in Wang Yi's pawn wall. What they fear is not stablecoins, but funds being drawn away from the bank's main line. The finance department's stance is like the referee raising a hand to signal continuation—innovation and competition, translated into chess terms, means allowing an open position.
What I am really watching is "whether third-party rewards can attract new funds." In chess logic, an attack gained by sacrificing pieces does not equal real profit. Rewards are sacrifices: platforms use subsidies to exchange for deposits, gaining temporary spatial advantage, not material advantage. If subsidies cannot be converted into real retention and usage scenarios, then it is just a brilliant tactical combination without strategic gain, and the true nature will be revealed once the endgame arrives. Pawns gained by subsidies will still be exchanged off by the seventh rank.
Where is the compliance boundary? It lies in the three squares of "who pays, to whom, and under what name." The issuer not paying interest is a hard constraint; platforms paying rewards is a soft boundary. The real decisive move is whether regulators will redefine "rewards" as "interest," just like same-colored and opposite-colored squares—once the referee determines the color of the square, the entire diagonal instantly becomes invalid.
As for the linkage of US stock token underlyings, I interpret it as opposite-colored squares: the holding channel and the stablecoin yield channel are not on the same color square; short-term sentiment may pull out linkage, but that is just smoke on the board. When the smoke clears, what matters is whose pawn chain is stronger.
After fourteen months of long contemplation, the first move on which square will decide whether this game is open or closed—and I count pawns, not words. #geniusstablecoinrewardsMiddle East crude oil transportation has gradually resumed, yet oil prices remain firmly high, which many find contradictory. $CL
The core issue is that the risk premium has not disappeared: the Houthi militants have recently continued attacking Saudi energy facilities and oil pipelines. Although Saudi Arabia intercepted some missiles, the threat to facilities remains.
Although Trump stated that the US-Iran conflict might end quickly and Iran is willing to negotiate diplomatically, no substantive agreement has been reached so far. The geopolitical easing is only an expectation, not a realized outcome.
Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, but the insurance costs for oil tankers and the security costs caused by detours remain high. These costs are directly factored into oil prices.
Last Friday, Brent $BZ closed at $116.72 per barrel, WTI at $103.27 per barrel.
Currently, the market is a game of two expectations: on one side, the positive outlook of diplomatic easing; on the other, the risk of energy facilities being attacked and shipping routes being interrupted again at any time. The future direction of oil prices depends mainly on whether facility security and shipping costs continue to rise.
By the way, high oil prices will push up inflation expectations, coinciding with this week's FOMC, which is a key macro variable that the crypto market needs to watch closely. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ High returns, do they necessarily mean better investment opportunities?Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Impact on Bitcoin in October
1. Baseline Scenario — Maintain Interest Rates + Neutral to Hawkish Speech
No ruling out of a December rate hike, emphasizing that inflation remains above target, high rates need to be maintained longer, and no early commitment to rate cuts.
Market Reaction
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate slightly, the dollar index strengthens slightly. Bitcoin initially dips slightly in the short term, then consolidates.
Market characteristics: bearish factors realized, increased volatility, contract markets prone to short-term long and short liquidations.
Medium to long term: the market continues to trade on whether there will be a December rate hike, BTC ranges sideways, difficult to break into a strong bull market.
2. More Hawkish Than Expected — Pause Rate Hikes but Clearly Signal High Probability of December Hike
Chair's statement: inflation is sticky, December hike still necessary, removed statements about inflation easing.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. Bitcoin drops sharply, deep correction, many long contracts liquidated, consistent with the decline logic after the September minutes release.
-Core logic: market raises peak rate expectations, high rates maintained longer, leveraged funds in crypto markets under pressure, ETF funds prone to net outflows.
3. Slightly Dovish Surprise — Maintain Rates, Weaken Subsequent Hike Expectations
Statement: inflation has clearly cooled, no further hikes needed, data will be observed, no preset December hike.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, risk appetite recovers. Bitcoin rebounds quickly, ETF funds return, short-term bullish momentum activated Why is the token price low, but not necessarily cheap