Orbit Post Sitemap
200,000 principal turns into 12 million? CORE coin's all-time high was $6.14, now it's $0.017. Is this a bottom rebound or a zero trap?
Simple calculation: from the current price of $0.017 back to the all-time high of $6.14 is about a 360x increase. If fully invested with 200,000 principal, theoretically it could become 72 million, while 12 million only requires a 60x increase, a huge potential that attracts countless retail investors to buy the dip. But low price does not equal bottom; this asset carries both super high odds and zero risk. The underlying story of the BTCFi sector hasn't disappeared; the trillion-scale idle Bitcoin assets represent the biggest imagination space for the sector. CORE focuses on Bitcoin staking yield; once BTCFi enters a bull market, small-cap public chains have huge valuation elasticity. After continuous sharp declines, the coin price is at a historic low. Many investors believe the negative factors have been fully released, but to realize a big surge, several critical hurdles must be overcome: 1. The number of validator nodes remains low, with few independent validators, so network decentralization and security risks remain unresolved, and large BTC holders dare not stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. 69 million ghost tokens hang overhead—abnormal tokens left from hard forks, which could dump anytime when the market warms, severely suppressing price rises; 3. Core plans like SatPay and buybacks have yet to be implemented, the on-chain native revenue flywheel has not started, making it hard to convert narrative into real value; 4. Competitors like Babylon and Stacks in BTCFi continue to seize market share, intensifying sector competition.Among the three disclosed full-position short orders, ETH has an unrealized loss of 2,567,500 U, SOL has a slight unrealized profit, and BTC has an unrealized loss of 123,100 U. Although all are short positions, the profit structures differ. BTC｜30X full position Holding -224.88 BTC, valued at 18,267,600 U; opening price 80,686.7 U, unrealized P&L -123,100 U, funding fee income +252,700 U; margin 608,900 U, listed liquidation price 189,722.02. ETH｜25X full position Holding -26,800 ETH, valued at 63,235,700 U; opening price 2,456.02 U, unrealized P&L +2,567,500 U, funding fee income +2,407,000 U; margin 2,529,400 U, listed liquidation price 3,264.07. SOL｜20X full position Holding -34,300 SOL, valued at 3,490,700 U; opening price 104.252 U, unrealized P&L +86,200 U, funding fee income +6,258.24 U; margin 174,500 U, listed liquidation price 804.12. 💡 My view. The focus of this set of positions is not only that ETH has the highest unrealized profit, but also that its nominal position is the largest: profit contribution is more concentrated, and the P&L changes during inverse fluctuations are more worth attention. Trading quality cannot be judged solely by profit amount. BTC's funding fee income exceeds its unrealized loss, but the two cannot be combined as closing profit, nor do they equal net account earnings. All three funding fees are positive, which also does not meanFrom $0.017 to $1? In-depth analysis: Is the next 60x myth of CORE coin brewing!
Rising from the current price of about $0.017 to $1, a nearly 60-fold increase, this huge potential return is the core motivation for many retail investors to persistently hold CORE. We objectively break down what conditions need to be met for this 60x rally to materialize, as well as the major obstacles along the way. If the coin price rises from $0.017 to $1, assuming the circulating supply remains unchanged, the market capitalization would need to expand by about 60 times. Once the BTCFi sector enters a super bull market, a massive amount of idle Bitcoin assets will seek on-chain yield. As a BTCFi L1 public chain featuring the Satoshi Plus consensus, CORE naturally has huge valuation elasticity and theoretically has this potential. However, for the 60x myth to come true, there are several very difficult hurdles to overcome: 1. Node crisis must be stopped: The continuous withdrawal trend of independent validators must reverse, and the network’s decentralization and security must be restored, otherwise large BTC holders will not dare to stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. Ghost chip selling pressure: The 69 million abnormal ghost chips left over after the hard fork could dump at any time during the price rally, severely suppressing upside; 3. Product implementation and delivery: SatPay needs to be launched and operational, with on-chain fees and buyback flywheel truly running, not just staying at the narrative stage; 4. Intense sector competition: Competitors in the BTC staking sector like Babylon and Stacks are constantly vying for market share.📌Pre-market quick notes: A sober reflection before Samsung's earnings report
Samsung will release its full Q3 earnings report on October 29, with preliminary operating profit soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI storage demand is heating up, with HBM4 shipments and memory chip prices being the core factors. The stock rose 2.02% pre-market today, clearly betting on earnings beating expectations 😮.
But no matter how high the profits, beware of the "good news fully priced in" ⚠️. Two key points in the comments: First, Samsung's stock price fell despite record profits, foreign investors are reducing holdings and buybacks are ending, retail investors are moving to US stocks, leaving no net buyers in the Korean market, worsening the buying structure; second, SK Hynix's HBM4 backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year, expansion is slower than expected, the short-term shortage logic remains intact, but once long-term capacity comes online, prices will need to be re-evaluated.
Your previous long position in SK Hynix at 1250 was also a bet on this expectation. When earnings are realized, it is often the time for short-term funds to take profits. Scale down profits in batches above, keep your defense levels tight, and set stop-loss orders properly ⛑️. The above is time-sensitive, intraday variables change fast, don't go naked 😉.Wow, this week is really a bomb week.
Tomorrow night is the FOMC, Thursday's PCE inflation data is forecasted at 3.7%, and on Friday there is also $11 billion worth of BTC options expiring.
The key point is this option—$10.97 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire this Friday, accounting for 35% of all open interest. This is the largest expiration event of the year.
What does this mean? Before the options expire, the whales will try to push the price to the strike price most favorable to themselves. It's currently 81,000, and the max pain point is around 80,000. In other words, before expiration, the whales will most likely grind the price back and forth around 80,000.
I think if the FOMC turns hawkish tomorrow night, BTC might first drop then rally. Let's see what old Wash has to say. This kind of market really tests your mindset.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC
The Federal Reserve decision is just a few hours away, BTC is hovering around 80,800 now, with a 24-hour high of 81,298 and a low of 79,505, having reclaimed the 80,000 level again.
Wintermute also said during the day that after three consecutive weeks of decline, the 80,000 line is the lifeline. The previous surge to 87,000 was immediately pushed back, with heavy selling pressure above. Funding rates have returned to a normal level of 0.01%, open interest is around 31,000 contracts, and those betting on the decision haven't been forced to liquidate.
Willy Woo said the top in 2028 could be between 240,000 and 410,000. I believe half of that; whether it tops or not is another matter, but the fact that this veteran bull is still willing to speak out at least shows that big money hasn't fled.
My stance is simple: no adding positions before the decision is finalized; wait to see which side gets buried first, then pick a side. Those who try to jump the gun at times like this are basically providing liquidity for others.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 35 billion USD is not just a financing round; it’s a steel beam forcibly inserted into a load-bearing wall—the building isn’t topped out yet, but cracks are already climbing up from the cash flow foundation.
From the general contractor’s perspective on Meta’s securities financing this time, the 22.5 billion USD common stock financing is like increasing the column spacing, and the 12.5 billion USD mandatory convertible preferred stock acts as temporary support; the convertible terms mean that the temporary support will eventually become a permanent load, compressing the floor space of existing shareholders. With a potential additional 60 billion USD, pushing the total to 95 billion USD, this is not simply adding floors but raising the building height before the foundation settlement is fully understood. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom together may subscribe up to 5 billion USD, more like bringing material suppliers into the project company: rebar and electromechanical are tied to the same balance sheet, which will speed up construction but also makes structural coupling more dangerous.
The funds are directed toward AI infrastructure, which sounds like building new data centers, power, cooling, and compute centers, but in essence, it’s a large-scale load redistribution. Free cash flow turned negative in Q3, and the annual capital expenditure guidance is 135 to 145 billion USD, indicating negative pressure on the cash flow foundation; at this point, relying on common stock and mandatory convertible preferred stock to continue is like using a post-pour belt to patch the main building’s settlement. The real acceptance criteria are not the press release renderings but whether these compute centers can generate sustained profits to cover capital and dilution costs. The tokenized asset $xSNDK is the glass curtain wall of this building, first reflecting the deformation of capital expenditures; when the main structure settles, the curtain wall reacts first, and market linkage also transmits from here.
I don’t look at renderings, only at reinforcement diagrams and cash flow profiles. The financing scale is not the biggest crack; the biggest crack is capital expenditure poured into data centers with excessively long return cycles, while free cash flow can no longer support its own structural weight. When capital expenditure growth outpaces free cash flow, the whole building shifts from a core frame to a cantilever system; a delayed return by one quarter means stress will transfer to the outermost $xSNDK curtain wall. #meta35baifinancingThe isobars over the Strait of Hormuz are being redrawn by an invisible hand, and what I focus on is no longer the channel about to open, but the cold vortex above it that has yet to dissipate.
On October 26, observers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan simultaneously entered the Tehran station, and Qatar submitted a forecast valid for five days: Iran reopens the strait, and the US lifts the port blockade. It looks like a textbook frontal passage: warm moist air retreats, visibility improves, and shipping resumes. But in my years of forecasting, what I fear most is this kind of "looks like clearing up" map: the dispute over the sequence of navigation and unblocking remains unresolved, meaning the order of frontal movement is still uncertain; whether rain or wind comes first, differing by one time step, results in two sets of weather. Tehran excludes the nuclear issue from negotiations, effectively letting the deep cold vortex press over the boundary layer; no matter how much the surface warms, once lifting conditions are triggered, convection will still erupt.
Brent crude fell back to 114.81, WTI to 101.02. This is a drop from a red high-temperature warning to orange, not a cooling. The supply risk premium—the warm moist air—is only temporarily suppressed by a shortwave trough and the moisture transport is not cut off. The Houthi militia claims to have attacked Saudi pipelines, which is a local strong convective cell that large-scale models cannot capture; radar echoes appear clearly once they form, with random impact areas, but each time they disrupt the newly restored visibility again.
The US stock tokenized asset $xTSM shows typical air-sea coupling characteristics: sea surface temperature (oil price) slightly drops, the upper atmosphere (risk appetite) immediately responds, but the response magnitude is always greater than the sea temperature change itself, which is a common problem of turbulence exchange flux amplification. Every time the Strait navigation expectation improves, the $xTSM isobaric surface rises a level; but as long as ship passage through Hormuz cannot be stably observed for three consecutive time steps, this rise is just a false warming in the model: surging during the day, nighttime radiative cooling will still pull the temperature back to the dew point.
Currently, I only give one judgment—
The five-day window is a member divergence of an ensemble forecast, cannot be treated as a forecast, and the divergence is still expanding. #USIranHormuzTalks The $ETH 4-hour chart is telling a rather pessimistic story: each rebound is weaker than the last, and the highs continue to decline. In this structure, 2281 becomes the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—once it is lost and cannot be quickly reclaimed, the downside space will open up, with the next observation zone around 2200, focusing on whether there is buying support there. Frankly, it is currently difficult to be optimistic about $ETH. But what is truly underestimated is not this downtrend line, but the macro density of this week. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are all releasing policy signals in the same week; US GDP and core PCE data are appearing consecutively; Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports are clustered. This is not an ordinary week, but a window where the stock market, the dollar, and US Treasury yields simultaneously price the crypto market. The transmission chain of capital flows is more worth watching than the charts: if earnings are strong, risk appetite may first revive the stock market and then spill over to $BTC and $ETH; if data is hawkish, the dollar and yields rising will first drain liquidity, and the crypto space often suffers passively. Most people only focus on the number 2281, but they overlook that it will most likely be redefined by macro news this week. Technical levels are effective during calm periods but are easily gap-breached during event-heavy periods, so the real signal is not the price touching 2281, but the quality of the price reaction above 2281 after data releases—if it recovers quickly, it means buying is still there; repeated attempts without reclaiming it confirm the trend continuation. My judgment is: the current bearish structure of $ETH has not yet been falsified, but the decision on direction this week is not in the hands of the chart, but in theThe proportion of tokens in profit across the entire network remains close to 70%. Meanwhile, exchanges' Bitcoin reserves continue their long-term decline, staying at multi-year lows. October saw neither concentrated panic holding of coins nor large-scale whale withdrawals for hoarding; the available spot chips for immediate trading are continuously shrinking. This means that once new buying emerges, the resistance to price increases is actually thinner than the support for downward breaks. The short-term battleground is tugging between 75,000 and 82,000, but the foundation of the bull market remains intact. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Robinhood's Q3 report is out, adjusted EPS is 0.60, GAAP EPS is only 0.51
Robinhood's Q3 GAAP diluted EPS is $0.51, Wall Street estimated 0.555, so it missed. The company introduced a new adjusted EPS this quarter, which is 0.60. Revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, slightly below the expected $1.44 billion.
The shortfall was explained in the press release. There was an unrealized loss of $67 million in net profit, or $0.07 per share, mainly due to RVI being accounted for at stock price. This loss basically did not offset taxes, pushing this quarter's tax rate to about 23.8%. Excluding it, the rough tax rate is 20.6%, whereas the previous two quarters were below 20%.
October started off well. As of October 27, net deposits have exceeded $13 billion, of which $6 billion came from the Dell family to Trump Accounts. The full-year guidance upper limit for adjusted expenses plus stock-based compensation was lowered by another $25 million.
After hours, the stock price dropped from the close of 94.56 to about 87 around 6 PM Eastern Time, a drop of about 8%. OKEx perpetual contracts fell from 94.79 at 4 PM Eastern Time to 87.32 at 6:14 AM Beijing Time, down 7.9%.
No was right again.
Alright, the above is my personal opinion and not investment advice Oil prices fell due to expectations of talks on the Strait of Hormuz, Brent closed at $113.88, and WTI dropped below the 100 mark‼️‼️
Although oil prices fell, the market situation is not very good: $BTC account long-short ratio reached 2.39 and continues to rise, retail long positions are extremely crowded, while large accounts are reducing positions simultaneously, spot CVD is negative, and contract-side selling pressure is active
The risk appetite recovery brought by the "oil price decline" has not been confirmed by spot buying on the market, and it has mostly been taken over by retail leveraged longs
The number of attacked vessels around Hormuz hit a new high this year, geopolitical risk premium has only partially retreated and has not disappeared
The oil price news gave a breather, but with crowded retail longs and spot not following, the rebound is ultimately quite limited
There are many trapped positions above, combined with high leverage selling pressure below, the market moves slowly and is complicated
If oil prices continue to fall, long leverage is not crowded, and combined with inflows into $BTC spot ETFs, a good rebound to fill the upper gap could happen
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 🚨 美国与加拿大收紧稳定币收益规则：支付归支付，储蓄归储蓄！比特币的价值定位会因此改变吗？ 💵 稳定币市场正在迎来一场重要的监管变化。这场博弈的核心，不再只是如何使用稳定币，而是一个更敏感的问题：用户仅仅持有数字美元，是否就应该获得利息或收益？ 🇺🇸 在美国，美国货币监理署（OCC）的最终规则计划于2027年1月18日生效。根据相关规定，稳定币发行方不得仅仅因为用户持有稳定币，就直接向其支付利息或收益。 ⚖️ 但真正值得关注的细节隐藏在规则的调整之中。最终版本删除了此前草案中关于第三方奖励可能违规的推定条款，改为根据具体情况逐案审查。这意味着，交易所或其他第三方仍可能在符合相关规定的前提下提供某些奖励，但并不代表所有奖励计划都能获得许可。 🇨🇦 加拿大也在推进类似的监管方向。目前，加拿大已启动为期60天的公众咨询，拟限制非金融类发行机构向稳定币持有者支付收益，相关规定预计于2027年秋季生效。 🔥 为什么美国和加拿大都在强调稳定币不能简单变成一种生息存款？ 🏦 核心原因在于传统银行体系的稳定性。如果用户能够轻松持有与美元挂钩的数字资产，同时获得具有吸引力的收益，那么部分First, a quick reversal: last night I thought it would go down further, but today's rebound must be acknowledged. The short positions I held from yesterday were cut off above 80,000, and now I'm basically out of positions, not in a hurry to get back in. Bitcoin is currently around 80,900, up a bit over 1% in a day, and the 80,000 level has been reclaimed; Ethereum is at 2,350, up 1.7%, even stronger than Bitcoin. My current view is that the short-term downtrend is over, but I really don't recommend chasing longs. The variable here is this: yesterday's drop was too fast, and today feels more like a recovery from panic. To confirm a trend reversal, we still need to see if 80,000 can hold for two days. Leave some room in your positions; don't go all in right at the open. What do you think—can the 80,000 level hold for a few days, or will it be smashed down again in a couple of days?Copy trading leads to loneliness! The top KOL on the leaderboard earned about $1.14 million in a month, but someone who copied his trades bought 925 coins and ended up with only $2,524 😂
I just saw a pretty painful experiment. Someone copied all the coins bought by the top 50 on an on-chain KOL leaderboard from September 26 to October 26, a 30-day period. They copied every buy and sell, investing only $10 per coin, with 2% fees on both buy and sell plus 3% slippage.
In 30 days, they followed 55,578 trades in total, making about $16,139, which looks pretty good at first glance. But breaking it down is a bit painful: out of 50 people, 23 caused losses, only 31% of the coins followed were profitable, and about 43% of the profits came from just 10 coins.
The most ridiculous part is the top few. The number one earned about $1.14 million themselves, but the copier only had $2,524 left. Number 4 earned about $285,000 in 30 days, but the copier bought 4,766 coins and actually lost $1,160. The bottom-ranked person earned over $40,000, but the copier lost $3,127. The wallet had to hold about $15,700 at the same time to manage so many trades.
The KOL shows their own account, but when you press buy, the entry price, speed, and slippage are all different. On the same candlestick, some make profits, but most who follow only get a taste, and sometimes even that taste is cold.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less. When buying coins, only buy $BTC Watching the market until now, I suddenly feel this market is very ironic. What crushed the sentiment today was not macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" pulling out first.
Arthur Hayes only said on X, "I sold everything," then dumped 6,400 ETH, about $15.2 million. His meaning is very straightforward: first the drop, then the rise. More strikingly, the Ethereum Foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and converting it into stablecoins. The project side is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are still waiting for the bull to return.
The ETF didn't give any face either. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow. Throughout October, ETH ETFs had a cumulative outflow of over $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs. This is not an ordinary correction; it's money voting.
My short position average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%, liquidation price 2,779, with over four hundred dollars buffer in between. The position is not large, following the capital flow, not the illusion of "it will rebound after falling too much." Below, there is $978 million worth of long liquidation orders hanging at $2,209, like a hanging knife.
I don't guess the bottom, I only watch where the money goes. The Foundation and Hayes are both selling; how many more days can 2,300 hold?
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $SOFI held onto its pre-market gains and continued to surge during the session, up 13%.
The management rarely provided a full-year guidance for fiscal 2027, with EPS at $0.90, representing over 50% year-over-year growth compared to fiscal 2026, which itself is expected to see a 50% EPS increase.
This is a company with at least 50% EPS growth for two consecutive years, and given Anthony Noto's style, this $0.90 guidance is very likely quite conservative, meaning Sofi's growth in 2027 could be even faster.
However, the market still values Sofi at less than 20 times forward PE, so the stock remains undervalued. A short-term target of $20 is set, and I am optimistic that Sofi can return to its historical high of $30 by 2027.
Of course, risks remain; no matter how strong the management's execution is, they cannot control macroeconomic headwinds. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech will be the most important short-term event affecting Sofi's stock price. A rate hike is unlikely, but the tone on December will be very critical.
I will update Sofi's latest target price later this week.$BTC has risen 109%, climbing from 44% over more than seven hours — but when I glance at the safety cushion, it's only 1.08%, and that little bit of excitement immediately fades.
Opened a long position at 80,046.4 with 100x leverage, now at 80,921.8.
From 44% to 109%, that's an increase of 65 points. That wouldn't mean much on other trades, but with 100x leverage, those 65 points came at the cost of a displacement of 875.4 points. In other words, if it retraces 875.4 points, this doubling will be wiped out completely, not a cent left.
What I fear most are the three words "within reach." 81,000 is just 78.2 points away, 0.10% — tonight I've paid too many tuition fees on these three words. $ZEC changed hands three times at the 1300 threshold, $SNDK hovered around 1300 for two hours but couldn't break through. "Almost there" and "definitely will get there" are never the same.
The three things I fear most: first, the itch to add positions and push to 200%. Second, the 1.08% cushion is too thin, just a pinprick away. Third, dawn is near, exhaustion is extreme, yet this is when I need to be most alert.
So don't fight it. Realize most profits, move the stop-loss up to break even. Reduce positions if it falls back to 80,000, then watch 82,000 after it stands above 81,000. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE
123,000 HYPE, just over 10 million USD, a whale that had been silent for 27 days directly bought from Wintermute last night.
At the same time, Bitwise's BHYP ETF wallet received 47,000 tokens after unbonding, worth over 3.7 million USD. A whale and an ETF, same coin, same night, both moving in.
HYPE current price just over 81, 24-hour low at 77.2, up about 4% intraday. I don't dare chase at this level; HYPE above 80 is no longer the cheap token it was at the start of the year. But a whale daring to hold 10 million from Wintermute, I take note of this signal.
Last time when the top traders on the four major platforms were only 9% long, I was bearish and got proven wrong. This time I won't rush to take sides; I'll first see if the whale's cost zone holds.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SOL
Polymarket's US version quietly launched a new feature last night: 5-minute crypto price rise/fall predictions, featuring only four coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
This selection of four coins is quite telling. Prediction markets used to settle daily or weekly, but now they've compressed it into 5-minute rounds, effectively institutionalizing short-term speculation. SOL making it into this top four is not without reason; in terms of volatility and retail participation, the platform treats it as a standard.
I casually checked the current price; SOL is hovering around 101, with a 24-hour low of 99.2, having recovered quite neatly. Today is also a Federal Reserve decision day, and having this kind of 5-minute market on a decision day is like the casino of casinos.
My view: this is a double-edged sword for SOL. The attention is genuinely coming, but these new participants don’t hold positions—they only bet on direction, so volatility will be amplified by sentiment. The platform knows better than us which coin’s volatility is most valuable, and that statement alone carries weight.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There are new rules for new orders, and I've fixed them into four points, leaving no room for my 6 AM self.
For $AKE here, 20x short, entry at 0.0232, current price 0.02151, floating profit 145.68%.
Three numbers decide life or death: fallback 7.85%, floor 0.021, ceiling 0.023.
Fallback 7.85% — it needs to rise 7.85% to reach the cost line. The cushion is moderately thin, so you can calmly take profits, but it's not at the "just wait" level. The real "just wait" is for old orders buffered by seventy or eighty.
0.0215 is right on the face (0.05%), the closest level tonight. 0.021 is 2.37% below the feet; breaking it is the first target; 0.02 is another 7.05% down, which is the real space. Above, 0.023 will speak again after being stepped on (7.42% overhead).
Four rules:
1. Stand back above 0.023, reduce position. Don't wait for the cost line; admit failure if the breakout fails.
2. Only talk about 0.02 if it breaks below 0.021. If broken, expect a pullback confirmation.
3. Give it a deadline. At 20x leverage, funding fees are deducted based on nominal position; fees apply even if the direction is correct. Staying flat for a day eats up nearly half the profit.
4. Do not add a single share. Adding to the position turns one gamble into two. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Rebounded to 80.6K, but I first took a look at the perpetual contract open interest, and my heart skipped a beat. Is this wave a real reversal, or just a brief respite after selling pressure? Last night while watching the market, BTC slid from 84.9K down to 79.2K, and the slope of that drop looked pretty scary. Now the price is back near 80.6K, the 4-hour structure still looks weak, but what really concerns me isn’t this small bullish candle, but the activity on the derivatives side. During this decline, the perpetual open interest didn’t collapse significantly, indicating that many leveraged positions are being passively held rather than actively closed out. In other words, the panic selling isn’t completely over. The key level is clear: if 81K can be reclaimed, the rebound structure will look better; if it gets pushed back down, then 80K and 79.2K are the next levels to watch. But what I want to say is the second layer—if 81K repeatedly fails to break through and open interest doesn’t decrease, then what’s likely coming isn’t a slow decline but another sharp forced deleveraging drop to flush out long positions. Under this rhythm, BTC’s rebound will seem very "fake"; the smoother the rebound, the more you need to watch if it’s just setting up shorts for a strike. From the perspective of sector rotation, this derivatives structure has a more subtle transmission effect on ETH and altcoins. When BTC leverage hasn’t been fully cleared, funds are reluctant to rush into high-beta altcoins; ETH at best follows the rebound but struggles to show independent strength. It’s even more obvious on the altcoin side—during rebounds, volume doesn’t keep up, indicating risk appetite hasn’t truly returned. On the bullish side, as long as 81K holds and open interest remains moderate "SK Hynix Earnings Night: AI Soaks Up Cash, Crypto Market Is Being 'Undermined'"
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to surge, but its stock price has halved from the June peak. Despite explosive earnings, the stock can't rally because expectations have already been priced in; the real focus is on the HBM4 production schedule and shareholder returns during the earnings call.
For the crypto market, this earnings report is far from positive; it's a fatal "drain."
The massive capital expenditure on AI chips is competing with the crypto market for the same pool of risk capital. The most direct impact is that miners are shifting computing power toward the more stable-profit AI hosting; meanwhile, rising DRAM prices continuously push up mining machine costs, systematically raising BTC's marginal production cost. Although the correlation between BTC and South Korea's KOSPI index has turned negative to -0.41, on a macro level, the AI capital cycle is like a black hole, sucking dry incremental off-exchange funds, causing a severe "fuel shortage" in the crypto market.
Looking back at the market, $BTC is repeatedly tugging at the psychological 80,000 level, with the FOMC holding steady as expected. The biggest risk now is a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations if 80,000 breaks down. $ETH has even broken below the 2350 trendline, funding rates have plummeted 56%, and whales have quietly turned bearish. Currently, EMA120 (around 2333) is the mid-term watershed that ETH bulls must defend.
The earnings report confirms a harsh reality: AI's capital pull remains strong, and crypto's current "relative weakness" is not simply a sentiment retreat but a structural problem caused by the withdrawal of underlying funds. The short-selling script was disrupted by the rebound: $BTC and $ETH surged early—Is this a preemptive move or a bull party before the event?
I originally expected a risk-off pullback before the Federal Reserve announcement, but BTC and ETH disrupted the short-sellers' rhythm first. Currently, BTC is at $80,888, up about +1.1% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,350, up about +1.8%. The short position profit-taking targets have not been approached; instead, this rebound has pushed them further away.
From the daily chart, BTC RSI(6) has risen to 43.06, ETH to 35.80, both moving out of previously weak zones; large net inflows of funds for both, with BTC about +3,128 BTC and ETH about +29,639 ETH. This indicates that short-term buying and covering forces are lifting prices, not just a volume-less pump.
However, I still do not consider this a trend reversal for now. BTC and ETH's MACD remain in a death cross structure, BTC has yet to break above MA7 and MA25, and ETH's supertrend is still bearish; both currently have trading volumes below the 7-day average. In other words, there is a rebound, but the trend confirmation is insufficient.
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on 2026-10-28. The market's real trading focus may not only be on the interest rate itself but also on the post-announcement statements regarding inflation and subsequent policy paths. For me as a short-seller, what to watch next is whether the rebound can expand volume and reclaim the short- to mid-term moving averages; if not, this rally looks more like an emotional rehearsal before the news lands rather than a complete trend reversal. I am the mid-term intelligence guy
24h total liquidations across the network reached 139.31 million, with long positions accounting for 57.5%.
I am closely watching the short cycle: nearly 8.89 million liquidated in the past hour, with longs as high as 8.27 million! The shorter the cycle, the more longs lose, indicating no major crash but weakening support, and momentum chasing the rally is being continuously cleaned out.
$BTC liquidations at 32.19 million (longs 63.7%),
$ETH at 23.75 million,
$SOL at 5.72 million.
BTC heatmap shows a large accumulation of liquidations between 81,700 and 82,900; a short-term rebound may test this area, but if it can't hold above 81,500, it remains bearish.
Considering the ETF funds from the day before only recognize BTC + this week's hawkish FOMC expectations,
Mid-term I insist: do not chase highs, beware of "selling the fact." Wait for the FOMC to cause a volume-shrinking dump, then buy BTC core support at lower levels, continue to watch ETH/SOL, prioritize stability!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The FOMC decision is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged. At 6 a.m., the market is no longer trading on the decision itself, but on Powell's wording about the December path in the latter half of his press conference. BlackRock's opposite moves on BTC and ETH are more straightforward than any directional judgment: IBIT alone absorbed a net inflow of $110.3 million for all Bitcoin ETFs, while ETHA saw a record single-day net outflow of $104.7 million on the same day.
$BTC is around 79,700. The area above 81,300 is a dense short liquidation zone, while 79,100–79,200 below is the thickest long liquidation layer. In the early morning, it is more likely to first trigger long stop losses downward, then depending on the wording decide whether it can reclaim 80,000; if 78,800 is broken, 77,600 comes into view.
$ETH is around 2,310. 2,300 is a psychological barrier; pressure from the ETF side remains unresolved. Holding it is necessary for recovery; if broken, 2,250–2,280 is the next layer.
$SOL is around 100. The area above 101.44–102.22 is a short liquidation zone, while 99.79–99.38 below is a dense long zone, with smart money short profits and retail holding positions. 98.6 is a stop-loss reference point; breaking below it will accelerate the squeeze.
In short: at 6 a.m., watch whether Powell's wording or liquidation levels speak first. For BTC, watch 78,800 and 81,300; for ETH, watch 2,300; for SOL, watch 98.6.
This is only a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ ZEC is currently trading at about $1,297, up 3.16% in 24 hours, showing strength against the trend as Bitcoin falls below $80,000, making it one of the few assets recently outperforming the market. A key technical turning point has appeared: the daily MACD has just crossed above the signal line again, the histogram has turned positive after being negative for a whole month, and the RSI has risen to 51.93 and crossed above its own moving average, ending its previous state of staying below the moving average. The price oscillated around $1,235 throughout October, with buying pressure entering on dips and selling pressure encountered on breakouts. To confirm a recovery, it needs to reclaim $1,390 on the upside; the trendline support is near $1,170, and a daily close below $952 would invalidate the entire structure. There are three news points worth watching. October 28 marks ZEC's 10th anniversary; Grayscale's research head pointed out that its model of allocating 20% of block rewards to a development fund helped the network survive the long bear market. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed a draft on October 26 suggesting to end the automatic 8% block subsidy flow to community grants and redirect it to a network sustainability mechanism, reasoning that the ZCG treasury has accumulated about $125 million with annual expenses of only about $6 million, resulting in a serious surplus of funds. Signals from the derivatives side are complex: 74% of whales on Hyperliquid are long, there is a $4 million sell wall at $1,232, and longs and shorts are locked in a very narrow range; any forced liquidation of one side could trigger a chain reaction. The defense quality between $1,170 and $1,235 is more worth watching than any single indicator.Nightclub girl's diary of going ashore to trade crypto
BTC is about to hit a resistance level, so I'm openly setting up short positions!
The previous drop already broke below 79,000, and now with this rebound, I plan to catch the pullback after the bounce.
The logic is actually very simple: it's a gamble on a secondary pullback after a weak rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is just below the previously broken dense chip area, which is a strong resistance for this rebound.
BTC is pulling up from 80,000, but the trading volume can't keep up—this is a typical low-volume bull trap, looking lively but lacking buying momentum.
This kind of low-volume rebound is the easiest to trap people; it looks like a stable counterattack, but mostly it's just shorts covering pushing the price up.
Once it faces pressure and turns down near 81,488, that's a comfortable shorting opportunity.
But you have to keep a backup plan: if volume surges and it holds above this resistance, then this bearish idea fails and you shouldn't stubbornly hold on.
Before the market settles, no one can guarantee anything. Low-volume rebounds have very low tolerance for error, so leverage must be light. Nightclub girls cashing out to trade crypto diary
The US and Canada have started tightening interest payments on stablecoins. To put it simply: payments are for payments, hoarding coins is for hoarding coins.
This round of regulation is not just drawing a simple line; the core is to cut off the path of "earning interest just by holding stablecoins."
The final rule from the US OCC will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers cannot pay interest directly just because users hold the tokens. Interestingly, the clause in the draft that "third-party rewards are directly considered violations" was removed and replaced with case-by-case review, effectively leaving a loophole for exchanges and similar third parties.
Canada has also started a 60-day consultation, planning to ban non-financial issuers from distributing yields to coin holders, to be implemented in fall 2027.
Many people's first reaction is that this is good news for Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s not really a giveaway. The regulators want to firmly keep stablecoins positioned as payment tools, not to let them become substitutes for bank deposits.
The future landscape is gradually becoming clear: stablecoins are for transfers and payments; BTC is mainly for value storage and hoarding.
However, the US banking industry is already in an uproar. The banking association directly criticized the OCC’s rules, saying they will accelerate deposit outflows and squeeze community banks’ lending capacity.
The tug-of-war is far from over, and the detailed rules on stablecoin yields may still see repeated changes, with considerable uncertainty.
For the market, short-term sentiment disturbance is limited; long-term it is reshaping the capital logic. The space for earning passive income on stablecoins is gradually restricted, and funds will reconsider allocations among bank deposits, stablecoins, and BTC. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, a result already fully priced in by the market. What truly matters is the wording of the statement and the guidance from the chair's press conference — this will determine whether a rate hike in December is "highly likely" or "certain." The key contradiction lies in: inflation remains elevated (September core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, 3.7% year-over-year) vs. marginal weakening in employment and growth (September nonfarm payrolls only 29,000). The Federal Reserve tends to "wait and see before acting," postponing the rate hike window to December, using more data from October-November to verify the persistence of inflation. Tonight is the decision night, there are a few numbers that are more useful than guessing the rise or fall
First, about last night's early moves: Micron rose 2.34%, the Nasdaq rose a bit over 1%, and Bitcoin also touched 80835. It looked lively, but the double high at 80850 wasn’t surpassed before sleep. If you’re really determined to go long, you wouldn’t miss these 15 points
Next, the rate is still positive, those going long are still paying rent. After a week of decline, there are still many bottom-fishers, but this doesn’t look like a bottom. The bottom comes when no one dares to bottom fish
Also MSTR, which just dropped 4.24% on Monday, Coinbase also fell nearly 3%. Both coin buyers and exchange operators are being sold off, this is more honest than candlestick charts
So now, outside is rushing in, inside is retreating. The phrase at 2 AM tonight is here to pierce through this paper-thin layer
My plan is simple: if 80850 holds, I’ll admit defeat and chase a bit; if it doesn’t hold, I’ll keep watching. If 79200 breaks, don’t reach out to catch it. Don’t be reckless before the knife falls
Anyone staying up late tonight, or are you all preparing to wake up and see the result?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $MSTR US and Canada Tighten Stablecoin Interest Payments: Payments Are Payments, Hoarding Is Hoarding
The core of this round of stablecoin regulation in the US and Canada is not simply "drawing boundaries," but cutting off the path of "earning interest just by holding."
The US OCC's final rule will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers are prohibited from directly paying interest to users for holding tokens. More importantly, the draft's "third-party rewards are presumed violations" clause was removed and replaced with case-by-case review—effectively leaving a workable loophole for exchanges and other third parties. Canada has launched a 60-day consultation, proposing to ban non-financial institution issuers from paying yields to holders, effective fall 2027.
For BTC, in the short term, don’t treat it as "free tokens." Regulators are pressing stablecoins into payment tools, prohibiting them from becoming deposit substitutes, which actually clarifies BTC’s role as a "store of value": stablecoins are for spending, BTC is for hoarding.
But the US banking sector is already in uproar. The American Bankers Association criticizes the OCC for enabling deposit migration and threatening community bank lending. This tug-of-war is far from over, and stablecoin yield rules may still fluctuate.
$BTC $ETH
#美加稳定币监管明确收益边界
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been tugging back and forth around $80,000, but this week it faces a triple macro event convergence — this is not ordinary volatility, but a liquidity stress test. Wednesday's Fed rate decision, Thursday's US GDP and PCE inflation data, and Friday's roughly $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry all fall within the same week. The market's greatest fear has never been bad news, but the concentrated release of uncertainty. First, looking at the structure: BTC previously struggled to surge to $84,600, then fell back to the starting point, indicating real selling pressure above. $80,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears; the longer the price lingers here, the thicker the leverage buildup, making the pin effect of Friday's options expiry and market makers' hedging more likely to amplify volatility. The real risk is not direction, but rhythm — sudden sharp drops often occur when consensus is most lax. My judgment is cautious: if $80,000 is lost again, $76,000 will come into the retest view; conversely, only by holding above $82,000 can there be a short-term qualification to challenge $84,000 again. These two price levels carry more information than any prediction. $ETH and $ZEC will also be influenced by overall risk appetite, but this week's main focus is $BTC's options and the macro calendar. A second layer of logic worth emphasizing: the market generally treats the Fed decision as the sole variable but underestimates the timing mismatch between options expiry and macro data. After digesting Wednesday's decision, Friday's $11 billion expiry is the real liquidity event.Nightclub girls' diary of getting into crypto trading
Right now, the crypto market is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with oscillations and spikes destined to be the main theme.
$BTC has seen tight capital recently, with 12-hour bullish and bearish forces almost balanced, bears holding a slight edge. Most of the liquidations are from longs, with 6,997,700 U worth of long positions wiped out. There’s a cluster of short orders piled up at 81,142, while 79,494 is where long positions are concentrated. The current price is stuck between these two liquidation zones, increasing the risk of back-and-forth spikes.
$ETH shows bulls slightly stronger, but this advantage is unstable, and opinions remain divided. Many long orders are buried below 2,279, with pain points close to the current price. It basically follows $BTC and lacks the strength to form an independent one-sided trend.
$ZEC is also in a weakly balanced state, with bulls slightly stronger over 12 hours, but most liquidations are still from longs. It moves in sync with mainstream coins, with capital distribution balanced and no clear direction—typical consolidation and shakeout.
The common points for these three coins are clear: large divergence, capital fighting back and forth, and concentrated liquidation chips both above and below. In the short term, it’s highly likely to continue with back-and-forth spikes. Chasing rallies or selling into dips easily leads to losses on both ends. In this kind of market, controlling the rhythm is far more important than guessing the direction of price movements. Nightclub hostess's diary on landing and trading crypto
Funds are only flowing into Bitcoin, which hardly counts as a market-wide recovery.
On October 26, spot ETF data clearly diverged: BTC had a net inflow of $110.3 million, stopping the previous day's outflow of $137.9 million. In contrast, ETH continued to flow out with $88.58 million leaving, and SOL also saw an outflow of $8.2 million.
Although Bitcoin is seeing some capital return, the strength is quite average; the money that left yesterday hasn't been fully replenished today.
Money is coming in, but the price isn't keeping up, signaling that selling pressure above remains. ETH lacks incremental buying and is noticeably weaker. Once Bitcoin fails and turns downward, ETH will be the first to break, with key support levels easily breached. SOL's rebound looks resilient, but capital sentiment is cautious, so don't expect sustained strength.
In short, institutions are not fully entering to bottom-fish; they are merely reducing risk exposure and only dare to hold BTC as a safe haven.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. Until Bitcoin firmly breaks resistance levels, ETH and SOL rebounds should be seen as weak recoveries, so don't rush to go long. $BTC $ETH $SOL The Hormuz opening plan continues to be discussed, and oil prices have fallen. For risk assets, this might be a chance to catch a breath, but the reasons behind the decline need to be clarified.
If the market is trading on supply restoration, crude oil can be transported more smoothly, easing energy cost pressures, which helps many businesses and consumers. Such a drop in oil prices usually makes people more hopeful about an improved economic environment.
However, if the oil price decline comes from a clear weakening in demand, the implications are completely different. Less production by companies and less travel by consumers can also pressure crude oil, but risk assets may not feel comfortable because of it.
Therefore, I wouldn’t just label BTC as macro-favorable simply because oil prices turned green. I would also look at whether the stock market and other commodities show the same judgment—whether the market is betting on supply improvement or worrying about growth.
The changes brought by the current negotiation news are worth attention, but there’s no need to interpret a single decline as all inflation pressures being resolved. The actual procurement cost transmission to company accounts still takes time.
What’s been most exhausting recently is that every candlestick is accompanied by a complete story. I’d rather take it slower and clarify the reasons. Even if oil prices fall, buying into “supply restoration” versus buying into “demand weakening” can lead to very different experiences.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Hynix's earnings report is approaching, and this time I want to hear more about Solidigm.
On October 23, the company announced it would stop evaluating potential IPO and pre-IPO financing plans for Solidigm. But the announcement also made it clear: the need for capacity expansion and investment still exists, and other financing methods will continue to be explored.
What concerns me about this is that the financial arrangements have changed, but the money needed for the business has not disappeared.
If the original plan was to support new US capacity through external financing, and now that path is paused, it’s worth asking how and when the investment will proceed next. Whether the group invests directly or seeks other capital will affect fund allocation.
This also touches on another issue shareholders care about: how to balance capacity expansion and cash returns.
Progress on HBM4 is certainly important, but a company doesn’t operate solely on its hottest product line. The construction, financing, and capital arrangements of other businesses can also impact valuation.
I don’t think pausing the subsidiary’s IPO is necessarily a bad thing. When market conditions are unfavorable, not rushing to sell asset stakes may better serve existing shareholders’ interests. But a feasible alternative plan must be presented next.
It’s good if products sell well; good financial arrangements are what make that growth more stable. I hope management covers both aspects thoroughly in today’s conference call.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Before this rate decision, I specifically reviewed the minutes from the last meeting. There's a detail worth discussing: the Federal Reserve mentioned that it can purchase short-term Treasury securities if necessary to maintain ample bank reserves.
Seeing the words "purchase Treasury securities," the crypto community easily gets excited, immediately associating it with a new round of easing. But what problem this operation actually solves needs to be clarified first.
Supplementing reserves to maintain the normal operation of the money market is different in purpose and transmission from large-scale purchases of long-term assets to lower financing costs. Focusing only on the words "buy bonds" can easily lead to misreading a technical operation as a policy shift.
In this meeting, I will pay attention to operational arrangements beyond the interest rate statement: whether there are changes in reserve management and how the authorities explain them. Even if relevant adjustments occur, they need to be judged in combination with scale, duration, and implementation purpose.
Of course, I hope BTC will enjoy a more favorable funding environment. But if every time we see changes in the central bank's balance sheet, we immediately shout that the bull market is back, we will only confuse our own judgment.
Monetary policy is already complex enough; there is no need to flatten it with a few emotional labels. Rather than rushing to share "easing confirmed," I want to confirm through which channels this money enters the market and how long its impact will last. It's still timely to get excited after understanding it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After BTC fell below 80,000, the on-chain trend suddenly changed: retail investors are moving coins to exchanges, while whales are locking coins back up 🔒
In the past 24 hours, the amount of BTC deposited by retail investors has surged to a 6-month high. Translation: scared of the drop, they transfer first, ready to hit the sell button anytime 😰 Exchange deposit addresses are as busy as a clearance sale.
On the other hand, the amount of BTC whales deposit to exchanges has shrunk from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. What does this mean? Big players have no intention to deliver at this price 🤔 The door isn’t just locked from the inside; they simply don’t want to open it.
So the picture becomes: retail investors anxiously queueing to hand over chips below, while whales quietly watch the show above, casually picking up the bloodied coins 🎭 You might think cutting losses is stop-lossing, but it could just be a change of ownership.
The most painful cycle for retail investors: afraid to miss out when prices rise, afraid of going to zero when prices fall, always a half-beat behind 📉 Whales don’t shout signals, they just watch on-chain actions.
The above is based on on-chain data analysis and does not constitute any trading advice ⚠️$BTW plunged to 0.87 yesterday (-47%) in one sharp drop, then bounced back to 1.74 today, up 53%. I only dare to watch and trade lightly with this kind of coin.
I just hit the top and got stopped out three times.
Its trading style over the past month can be summed up in four words: long and short both get hit.
Started at 0.5 at the end of September, on October 14th it squeezed shorts driven by Binance's hype to 2.75, with shorts liquidated for $2.9 million in one day; after the spike, it dropped back to 1.8 in two days, then repeatedly poked between 1.6 and 2.1. Last Friday it fell to 1.2, dropped directly to 0.87 yesterday, and pulled back to 1.74 today.
After a big bullish candle comes a big bearish one; those chasing highs and bottom fishing get buried alternately.
My next judgment: this is an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Resistance at 1.87 and 2.08 is heavy with trapped positions; only 15% circulating supply, with more unlocking and selling pressure ahead. The near-zero fees indicate no shorts are being squeezed. This wave is bottom fishing, not a short squeeze.
My plan: don’t chase above 1.87; wait for volume to hold above 1.87 before lightly going long, targeting 2.08; also can buy on a stable pullback to 1.48–1.50; if it breaks 1.40, this rebound is invalid, watch 1.20.
Use small position and low leverage on contracts; this kind of market can spike and liquidate you twice in one move.
Do you think it will make a second run at 2.75, or continue stepping down after the rebound?
$BTW $BTC
#Bitway #Contract $ETH is bearish. In this +2.13% bullish candle, short positions worth $17.22 million were liquidated, while long positions only liquidated $3.77 million. The price increase is mainly driven by shorts being forced to cover. There are no clear signs of new leveraged longs; the funding rates for the three periods are slightly positive, which can only be considered background. The put/call open interest is basically balanced, but the put/call ratio of the day's trades surged to 2.79, indicating that some are concentrating on buying protection during the rise. The largest volume on the chart falls on the bullish candle, but much of this volume consists of shorts covering their positions, and after this squeeze, there is no follow-up. The descending trendline and moving averages are still aligned bearish overhead, and the price closed at the 24-hour high of 2,358.69, just below resistance. The short squeeze is nearing its end, and a pullback to test 2,296.3 is expected. Bullish reversal conditions: price holds above 2,358.69 and breaks through the descending trendline, which would invalidate this bearish view.这次披露的十一老板持仓更新中，ZEC空单已平仓，BTC、ETH多单仍在持有。关键区别不只是赚了多少，而是利润是否已经落袋，以及剩余仓位还承担什么风险。 📊 三笔仓位拆开看 BTC：30X全仓，持仓1 BTC，保证金2691.82U；开仓均价79801.9U，披露时标记价格80754.8U，浮盈+952.84U，收益率+35.82%。 ETH：同为30X全仓，持仓1 ETH，保证金78.15U；开仓均价2285.95U，披露时标记价格2344.78U，浮盈+58.82U，收益率+77.19%。 ZEC：10X逐仓空单，历史最大持仓2000 ZEC，开仓均价872.88U，平仓均价863.74U；披露的已实现收益为+17293.96U，收益率+9.90%。 💡 我的看法。 ETH收益率更高，但BTC浮盈金额更大，不能只凭百分比判断哪笔交易贡献更高，更不能把浮盈与已实现收益混成账户总收益。 ZEC平仓结束了这笔空单的价格敞口，但不等于剩下两笔多单就有了安全垫。BTC、ETH方向一致，若同步回撤，两笔浮盈可能一起收缩；全仓模式下，风险也不能只按各笔列示保证金理解。 比起用这次盈利证明策略有Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $80,000 throughout October. On-chain data explains the reason: this price is stuck between two key cost lines.
The resistance above comes from spot ETF investors. Glassnode data shows that the weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is about $81,500. Every time the price rebounds to this range, it encounters many holders waiting to break even and exit. They entered at highs between late 2025 and early 2026, have been at a floating loss for months, and tend to sell once they break even. There are two support levels below. The first is the real market average price (the average buy cost of the entire market after excluding long-term inactive coins), about $77,500 to $78,000. The second is the average cost of short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days), about $74,600. The $80,000 price is sandwiched in the middle: above, some are eager to exit; below, the defense line has not yet been reached. But looking further, the underlying structure is much more stable than it appears. The realized price across the entire network (the weighted average price of all Bitcoins' last on-chain transfer) is about $54,000, and the average cost of long-term holders (those holding coins for over six months) is only about $49,000. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $XRP
This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give advance notice.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to hastily judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leverage funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL is supported by spot but futures are still retreating.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has expanded to $7.83 billion, indicating short-term buying has returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not yet over.
ETH spot net inflow in 4 hours is $51.64 million, futures net inflow is $221 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, 30-day spot net outflow is $3.77 billion, futures net outflow is $8.29 billion. Short-term replenishment is stronger than BTC, but mid-term capital structure remains weak.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $8.66 million, futures net inflow is $4.53 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures net outflow is $58.94 million. The 30-day futures cumulative net outflow is $2.17 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but leverage funds remain cautious about the rebound.
BTC short-term funds are flowing back, ETH futures funds are rushing in, and SOL spot support is most obvious. It currently looks more like capital replenishment after continuous retreat, not a trend reversal yet. Continue to watch if the rebound can bring sustained incremental volume; otherwise, there is still a risk of pullback after a rally.The most fragile link in silver has never been its slow rise, but that it is always the first to be pulled away to absorb selling when the macro narrative is at its hottest. Can your long silver positions withstand a "false breakout followed by a pullback"? Over the weekend, I reviewed that 5–7 year silver roadmap, and at first glance, I was indeed dazzled by numbers like 269, 410–569. But what really made me pause was that it marked the most fragile node in February 2027: looking for a phased bottom in the 37–39 range. In other words, even the bulls admit there will be a retracement big enough to clear leverage along the way.💫 The signal I see is very clear: 36.57–38.82 is an area where multiple Fibonacci levels and wave structures overlap; such resonance zones are often not starting points but battlegrounds where bulls and bears repeatedly tug back and forth. And the 29.86 line looks more like a script’s lifeline—once broken, the entire wave count becomes invalid, and the narrative instantly shifts from a "long bull path" to "structural failure." Looking at crypto, silver’s rhythm is actually a mirror of risk appetite. When it strengthens, it usually corresponds to a warming narrative around physical assets and inflation hedging, with BTC often benchmarked as "digital gold" telling the same story; but once it repeatedly false-breaks at resonance levels, speculative heat on the altcoin side tends to retreat first, because capital becomes more selective about depth of absorption rather than blindly chasing narratives. Beta assets like ETH are most sensitive to this sentiment switch. The bullish path is also clear: if the 37–39 range really holds, gold continues to rise, the gold-silver ratio compresses toward 30–40, then silver’s elasticity willIn the 24-hour liquidation statistics for October 28, ETH and ZEC short liquidations were significantly higher than long liquidations, while BTC was nearly balanced. Compared to just looking at total liquidation amounts, this directional difference is more worth breaking down. ETH: total liquidation of 35.609 million U, accounting for 26.88%; long liquidations 8.1562 million U, short liquidations 27.4528 million U. It has the largest liquidation scale among the three and is the main target under short pressure in this round. BTC: total liquidation of 17.0729 million U, accounting for 12.89%; long liquidations 8.9886 million U, short liquidations 8.0844 million U. Long liquidations are slightly higher, so the same explanation of "shorts being squeezed out" cannot be applied. ZEC: total liquidation of 6.3653 million U, accounting for 4.80%; long liquidations 0.6618 million U, short liquidations 5.7035 million U. The total is lower than ETH, but the skew in liquidation direction is more pronounced. 💡 My view. The liquidation amount records passive exits, not new buying, and cannot be directly taken as the overall market long-short positions. The data for ETH and ZEC supports the interpretation of concentrated short pressure but is insufficient to prove sustained capital relay on the upside; BTC’s two-way liquidations remind us that synchronization between coins is lacking. Next, I pay more attention to the follow-up after liquidation: if volume follows when prices strengthen and open interest (OI) increases again, there is more reason to discuss new participation; if prices rise but OI continues to decline, caution is needed as the market is mainly driven by position exits, and a pullback may occur after momentum fades. Are you more focused on the follow-up after ETH liquidation or BTC?#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Brothers, Strategy (MSTR) is about to release its earnings report. Many will get excited seeing this quarter's numbers—according to the new FASB rules, Bitcoin rose in Q3, resulting in a direct $21 billion book gain on the balance sheet, with EPS potentially hitting double digits.
Old Mo advises you to cool down first. This money is "calculated," not "realized".
Recall last quarter, when the coin price dropped, the same company recorded an $8.3 billion book loss. The income statement followed the candlestick roller coaster, making it meaningless.
What really matters is that their actions changed this quarter. In Q3, they very prudently bought only 334 BTC but repurchased $193 million of STRC preferred stock and even raised the buyback authorization to $3 billion.
Got it? Previously, they were crazily issuing debt to buy coins; now they are paying down debt to reduce leverage. After all, that 12% dividend on preferred stock is a rigid expense that must be paid in cold hard cash.
Old Mo says: The $21 billion profit is for retail investors to see; stopping unlimited accumulation is for institutions. This company is transforming from a "crazy coin hoarder" to a "capital manager." When the earnings report comes out, watch their mNAV premium/discount closely—it’s much more useful than focusing on that inflated EPS.
What do you think about Strategy's strategic shift? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $BTC $SOL That's indeed the case. In two days, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of over 770 million, with last week's inflows completely withdrawn, and long-term holding addresses reduced by more than 50,000 coins. This isn't retail investors dumping; it's large funds actively buying back. Even gold is softening, and everyone prefers to hold cash and wait.
But when I watch the futures market, I feel conflicted. Prices are grinding below key levels, yet positions aren't decreasing. The total open interest is increasing day by day, and most liquidations are on long positions. The spot side is withdrawing, while the leveraged side is gambling; both sides are opposing each other, and neither yields.
The divergence among the four is clear: BTC, ETH, and SOL positions are all increasing; SOL is still hovering around the 100 level; ZEC is even rising against the trend with the most aggressive position increases. The more the market struggles, the more people seek refuge in the smaller players. This kind of structure is most vulnerable to a missed news trigger, which would cause a cascade on the leveraged side first.
Looking ahead, there are two potential triggers. Tonight, consumer confidence data will be released; early Thursday morning, the interest rate decision will be announced. A no-change decision is basically expected; the risk lies in the wording and the press conference. If the chairperson is firm, the tension for December remains. These two potential shocks could explode in the same direction, and the leveraged positions below key levels are the fuel. Before that, the market will likely continue to grind.
I'm not worried about whether this counts as panic; I focus on the structure: spot money is leaving, leveraged money is gambling. If the structure isn't fixed, the difference between grinding and a cascade is just one piece of news. As long as ETF flows don't turn positive for a day, any rebound should be seen as a pullback. I'm not rushing to bottom-fish. Real stabilization requires outflows to narrow, long-term holding addresses to stop decreasing, and ETH funding to improve. Only when these three signals align should we talk about catching up on gains. For now, controlling your impulses is more important than guessing the bottom 👀.There are only a few paths to making tens of millions, but the luck and risk vary greatly among them:
1. Early-stage low-price long-term holding (most common)
Investing early in coins like SOL and PEPE, holding without selling casually, and catching a big bull market that multiplies your investment dozens or even hundreds of times. Heavy positions can directly roll into huge profits. The difficulty is enduring long periods of volatility and sharp drops without cutting losses.
2. Catching a big market move with heavy short-term positions
Hitting extreme market conditions (sharp rises and falls, explosive positive news), using high leverage and precisely timing the main upward wave. This is the riskiest approach; you might make tens of millions once, but if you get the next heavy position wrong, you can easily lose it all. Leverage liquidation is common in crypto.
3. Running Ponzi schemes/contract signal services, communities, and monetizing traffic
Not profiting from trading itself, but from membership fees, commissions, and referral rewards. Many appear to make big money trading but are actually earning from others’ losses. This area often crosses legal boundaries.
4. Primary market, new token launches, whitelist
Getting early low-cost tokens and selling them at high prices after listing. High entry barriers requiring insider resources.
Reality check:
Getting rich quickly in crypto is extremely rare and subject to survivor bias. You only see those who made tens of millions, while many others using the same methods lose everything. Most who get rich through leverage end up paying it back to the market.
This information is for market observation only and does not constitute trading advice.