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#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Hynix Q3 Earnings Preview: Profit Side to Exceed Expectations Again, but the Real Variable for Stock Price Is the HBM Market Share Battle
Citigroup expects Q3 operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% higher than the market consensus of 75.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 614%; revenue is expected to be 101.2 trillion KRW, up 314% year-on-year. Operating margin approaches 80%, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter. The driving force is clear: AI inference demand drives DRAM average prices up 28% quarter-on-quarter, NAND up 24%, and eSSD demand is expected to grow 52.9% by 2027. As a major supplier of high-density QLC NAND, Hynix directly benefits.
If actual figures are close to Citigroup's forecast, exceeding expectations is almost certain. However, whether the stock price will rise depends on two signals from the earnings call: first, the pricing and volume ramp of HBM4. The company has entered Nvidia Vera Rubin's supply chain, and the price increase of HBM4 is key to continued margin expansion; second, shareholder return measures. The market expects the company to announce increased dividends or buyback cancellations at the earnings meeting, having previously completed a 40 trillion KRW buyback.
The risk lies in: Bernstein data shows Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue is about $8.7 billion, surpassing Hynix's $7.6 billion, with HBM market share dropping from 64% to 50%. If the market interprets the market share loss as a weakening of competitive barriers, the better-than-expected profits may be offset by a "valuation kill".Bitcoin’s Midterm Election Curse: Will $73K–$75K Be the Ultimate Test?
Bitcoin hasn’t escaped the midterm election curse in any of the past four cycles.
📉 Historical drawdowns: ▪️ 2010: -72% ▪️ 2014: -65% ▪️ 2018: -52% ▪️ 2022: -27%
Q4 has been equally brutal. Three of the past four midterm election years ended the quarter in the red, with losses of 16.7% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.#DailyOrbit $BTC short position floating loss of over 22 million dollars but still as steady as Mount Tai, the understanding of top whales is indeed on a completely different level from retail investors.
With nominal market value of 530 million dollars in BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions held, it looks like they're stubbornly holding losing positions against the wind, but checking the positions reveals all the details: full positions with low leverage, liquidation lines set higher than the sky, and even the funding fees alone have cost them over ten million dollars.
Looking again at the historical total profit and loss, they have 180 million dollars in accumulated profits sitting in the account. This is not stubbornly holding on out of pride; it's purely using profits to cover floating losses to buy time.🔥 BTC midterm election curse draws attention again! $80,000 lost, the real key support may be at $73,000–$75,000!
🔴 Historical warning: In past US midterm election years, Bitcoin has experienced significant pullbacks, with some bear market lows appearing after the elections. But the sample size is limited, and historical patterns do not guarantee a repeat this time.
🟠 Cost zone battle: If short-term holders’ cost is around $73,000 and Strategy’s average holding cost is about $75,446, the $73,000–$75,000 range deserves close observation. If a rebound is supported after a dip, the market structure still has a chance to recover; if it breaks down effectively, deeper pullbacks should be watched for.
🟢 Key price levels: After losing $80,000, first watch the $79,000–$78,000 area, then focus on the core support at $73,000–$75,000. The liquidation heatmap only reflects potential risk concentration zones and does not guarantee the price will necessarily reach them.
🔵 Personal judgment: The election may amplify volatility, but macro liquidity, ETF funds, and market cycles are more important variables. Don’t just focus on the “election curse,” pay more attention to whether the support holds.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Historical data and cost estimates need verification; key price levels do not equal absolute bottoms. Control leverage and be cautious when bottom-fishing!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SOL $AAVE
In the afternoon, I saw a peer's complaint saying that DeFi has completely gone silent this round, and old protocols like Aave are waiting to be forgotten.
No sooner had they spoken than the news came out: Aave V4 deposits exceeded $1.5 billion, hitting a record high. Real money is flowing in; this number can't be faked.
Looking at the coin price, AAVE is currently at 136, fluctuating between 139 and 133.58 in 24 hours, basically standing still. Deposits hit a new high, but the coin price is dozing off—this mismatch is quite interesting.
I understand that this round of incremental funds is going straight for yield, rarely detouring to buy governance tokens. This is the common problem of old DeFi: the protocol makes money, but the token suffers. No one knows when this problem will be fixed; anyway, I’m not betting on it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Holding the integer threshold does not equal a completed breakout. My personal market observation is: the more $BTC oscillates around eighty thousand dollars, the easier it is for people to mistake a brief stabilization as trend confirmation. For now, I am not chasing this move.
Kraken's public quote is about $80,125; DB's original judgment places the threshold for structural strengthening between $81,000 and $81,500. The price has not yet reached his confirmation zone, so we cannot say "not yet triggered" means the bulls have already won, nor can we substitute floating profits from other coins for validation of the main market.
I pay more attention to whether it can hold after breaking through at the close, and whether selling pressure weakens on the pullback. If these conditions appear simultaneously, I will overturn my judgment of not chasing the rise; if it falls back below $80,000 and fails to rebound above, the current assumption of stabilization fails, and it is more appropriate to continue waiting rather than guessing the bottom.
My comprehensive judgment is: the integer level only provides an observation coordinate; the follow-through after the breakout determines whether the judgment is upgraded. Risk is controlled first by invalidation conditions, not by adding leverage to compensate for insufficient confirmation. Would you prioritize the close after the breakout, or the pullback follow-through? This is only a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.@天晴 ETH The most obvious contradiction in this situation is that he keeps complaining verbally about Ethereum's weakness, yet he still insists on a bullish outlook. Semiconductor-related holdings have started to rebound, while Ethereum is still consolidating. He acknowledges this strength and weakness difference and has not declared the original bullish judgment over just because of the poor short-term performance. Regarding $ETH, he repeatedly mentions entering long positions around 2300. He said that in the afternoon, he participated around this level and there was a rebound process near 2330. This refers to his trading idea and the existing market at that time, not that any later price can be chased unconditionally. He hopes to see 2400 and 2450, but these two numbers expressed in the live broadcast are more like expectations for a rebound rather than a fully confirmed breakout plan. Focusing only on the targets while ignoring whether the price has truly escaped weakness would misinterpret his directional judgment as short-term certainty. He himself also sees the problem: the exchange rate of Ethereum against Bitcoin remains weak, and during the same period, BTC and semiconductor-related assets performed better. In other words, his long position judgment is not based on ETH already being the strongest asset; on the contrary, he continues to wait for recovery while acknowledging the weakness. Why is he still willing to hold? In the later part, 天晴 interprets the current area as a daily-level consolidation or pre-startup arrangement, believing that the previous pullback after the low-level rise does not necessarily mean there is no room ahead. Based on this, he chooses to participate in batches rather than constantly changing direction by only looking at one or two short-term K-lines. But this is still his structural understanding.🔥 BTC falls below $80,000, ETH drops under 2300! After the weekend's broad decline, will the market continue to test the bottom?
🔴 Reasons for the decline: Rising US Treasury yields, cooling rate cut expectations, combined with outflows from spot ETFs, putting pressure on risk assets. Weekend liquidity was weak, and after key supports were broken, leveraged liquidations further amplified the drop.
🟠 Short-term trend: It is currently unwise to hastily conclude a market reversal; most likely, consolidation is still needed to digest selling pressure. If the Federal Reserve signals a neutral stance and outflows slow down, BTC and ETH may see an oversold rebound, but resistance remains strong above, and a rebound does not equal a trend reversal.
🟢 Key observations: Focus on the upcoming FOMC decision, ETF fund flows, and changes in US Treasury yields. If policy signals turn hawkish and outflows continue, the market still faces further downside risk.
🔵 Personal judgment: We are currently in a high-volatility game phase; first observe whether selling pressure weakens before judging if the rebound can continue. Do not blindly bottom-fish due to continuous declines, nor recklessly chase gains on short-term rebounds.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Control position sizes and leverage, strictly stop losses on short-term trades, and build long-term positions in batches to avoid betting all at once on one direction!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Today BNB rang the bell at Nasdaq. OKX has been busy all day cutting OKB for compliance, basically removing all the empowerment of OKB, making a complete mess, and as a result, BNB directly rang the bell at Nasdaq! How ironic 😰
Now US fund managers can enter $BNC in their brokerage accounts to get exposure to $BNB.
This is the first time $BNB has had an official entry point to communicate with Wall Street.
OKX has been thinking about listing and splitting OKB all day, but BNB Chain snatched the opportunity 😅😅😅
Part of today's bell ringing is also for these people.#HOODQ3TradingGrowth
Robinhood’s blockchain trading volume and social sentiment have declined since mid-September, while on-chain lending and trading deposits are rising. Its blockchain business is shifting from meme-driven hype toward diversified platform growth. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Report Approaching: Profit May Break Records Again, but HBM4 Becomes a "Semi-Finished" Engine
On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 2026 results. Market consensus expects revenue of about 98 trillion KRW, operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, and an operating margin close to 78%—if realized, it would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking performance.
On the surface, the AI memory cycle remains frenzied, with general DRAM price increases and HBM inventory demand pushing profits to historic highs. But the real focus is on HBM4: the company began mass production shipments in Q2, and volume was expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. However, Korean media and industry sources indicate that Q3 shipments have fallen below expectations for the second consecutive quarter. The delay of Nvidia's Rubin platform and time-consuming mass production tuning have caused some capacity to shift back to traditional DRAM.
More critically, the competitive landscape is changing. Institutions like Bernstein estimate that Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue may have already surpassed SK Hynix's, with the market share gap rapidly narrowing from over thirty percentage points. SK's first-mover advantage remains, but the "one dominant player" situation has loosened.
Therefore, this quarter's record-breaking results rely more on old momentum, and the real boost from HBM4 depends on specific figures from the earnings call: shipment pace, customer long-term contract implementation, and 2027 capacity planning. High profits are a fact, but the market wants to confirm—how stable is the next growth engine really?#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Low volume tug-of-war, don't rush to reach out yet
After this round of BTC's dip, it was pulled back again, hitting a low of 79,431, then returning near 80,000. The pattern indeed looks like a shakeout. ETH also fell below 2,300 before climbing back, indicating some support below, but the strength of that support is not strong yet. Among mainstream coins, ZEC is relatively resilient; although it fell back today, the weekly chart still shows an uptrend, making it one of the few directions still worth watching.
The fundamentals currently don't provide much stimulus. Standard Chartered's stablecoin is not rushing to advance, institutional funds still need time to enter, so it's hard to expect external incremental support in the short term. More importantly, the trading volume: BTC's single-day volume is only 16.2 billion, clearly shrinking, and the rebound lacks follow-up buying, more like internal funds competing with each other.
At this stage, chasing highs or selling lows is most to be avoided. My judgment is simple: if BTC can't reclaim 80,500 and ETH can't hold above 2,350, it's still garbage time, and entering now risks getting hit from both ends. The low-volume slow decline is the most wearing; just hold on for now and wait for the trend to become clear before making a move.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #HOODQ3TradingGrowth
In terms of data, Robinhood's blockchain trading volume has declined since mid-September.
From the user sentiment perspective, people are also discussing the Robinhood market less on social platforms, and sentiment is declining.
There is a positive trend as deposits in lending and on-chain trading apps have increased over the past week.
Robinhood's on-chain business is also evolving; the Meme phase that attracted attention has passed, and now is the period of building a diversified platform.
$xHOOD $BTC briefly fell below $80,000 in the short term, but fortunately, the daily candles in the past few days have all closed above $80,000. If it can still close above today, it still leans toward weak consolidation, with a volume breakout above 81,000 targeting 82,600.
If the daily candle falls below 80,000, then look toward 78,000 or even lower.
The $BTC pullback that started after 8 AM on Thursday continued to pressure various markets and tech stocks on Friday, causing declines.
My personal analysis is that the trigger was AI trading investors beginning to question the returns on massive AI investments, leading to pressure on tech stocks and crypto being classified as risk assets, thus falling along with them.
At the same time, ETF funds experienced a sharp reversal, with over $1 billion inflow at the start of the week, but $770 million was withdrawn directly over Thursday and Friday.
On the other hand, oil prices remain high, putting pressure on risk assets.
In the short term, the macro and leverage pressures over Bitcoin are very real.
Risk appetite is indeed contracting in the short term, but the contraction is not a full retreat. The counter-trend capital inflow into $ZEC shows that as long as the story is sufficiently independent, there are still people willing to buy at this point.
#BTC Market Analysis #AI Tech Under Pressure$ETH is currently leaning bearish, but it's not a reckless short; it's a short after a rebound meets resistance, with small positions and stop-losses.
Technically, the ascending channel has already been broken, selling pressure remains active, long-term holders are also offloading, and the Glamsterdam upgrade has been delayed again. The bearish logic is consistent. However, there is support around 2,250, and the ETF just saw a single-day net inflow, so shorting at the support level is not advisable.In the last bull market, $BTC experienced 6 major corrections, each ranging between 20%–30%; while the maximum drawdown in the previous bear market was 77%, and the current bear market drawdown is 53%. Putting these two numbers together points to an easily overlooked structural change: volatility is converging cycle by cycle. 📉 The direct consequence of this convergence is that to replicate past returns, the market must increase leverage. This also explains why a seemingly "normal" fluctuation today can liquidate $BTC long positions comparable to those during the last major downturn—not because the market has become more volatile, but because positions have become more fragile. Liquidation volume has become a window into observing real leverage levels, rather than just a price-related indicator. Following the same convergence logic, the single correction magnitude in this bull market phase should fall within the 10%–15% range. This narrower range compared to history implies two things: first, the "entry window" for deep corrections will become shorter, so those waiting for a big drop might miss out; second, the liquidation trigger threshold for leverage is lowered, meaning small fluctuations can now achieve position cleanups that previously required large swings. We are currently in the final stage of this adjustment. The key to this judgment is not whether the price will test new lows again, but whether the main trend of volatility convergence continues—if subsequent corrections remain compressed within 10%–15% and liquidation volume stays high, it indicates the market structure is still following the convergence path, supporting the conclusion that the adjustment is nearing its end; otherwise, if the drawdown breaks this range, the convergence logic itself needs to be reexamined.From the current structure, recent market participants overall remain in a floating profit state, and the short- to medium-term cost structure is still relatively positive. Historically, when the market is in an uptrend, the realized price by traders often acts as support when BTC retraces close to that level. If the price can hold this cost line, it indicates that the recent participants' holding costs may still provide support to the market; conversely, if BTC breaks below this level, some traders in a floating loss state might sell when the price rebounds close to their cost, turning this position from support into resistance. Additionally, attention should be paid to the upper band of the indicator historically: when BTC price approaches the upper band, it is often accompanied by increased profit-taking pressure and may lead to a short-term pullback. Therefore, if BTC continues to rise, the market reaction near the upper band deserves close observation; if BTC pulls back, focus should be on whether the traders' realized price can provide effective support. It is emphasized that the upper band does not necessarily mean the market has peaked, and the traders' realized price does not guarantee BTC will rebound; neither should be seen as an automatic trading trigger but rather as reference indicators to judge at what price levels recent market participants might change behavior. Currently, BTC is still trading above the traders' realized price, and the overall cost structure remains positive; if a deeper correction occurs later, whether this indicator can continue to provide support will be an important observation point. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Bitcoin fell below 80,000, and almost all the liquidations were longs.
According to CoinGlass data, 95.7% of liquidations in the past hour were leveraged long positions, with shorts barely affected. However, during the same period, large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 110,000 BTC over the past four to five weeks, marking the fastest accumulation rate this year.
What happened? The price drop was driven by forced liquidations of leveraged longs, not active selling by whales.
Why is this noteworthy? If whales were dumping, we would see large transfers into exchanges on-chain; but the data shows the opposite — high-leverage retail positions were liquidated, and large wallets were accumulating below.
Which observation is more supported? It supports the "leverage liquidation" narrative rather than "trend selling." But this does not confirm a bottom; it just means the chip structure is rotating.
Next, watch two things: the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 for its tone on risk appetite, and whether weekly ETF net inflows can continue. Either the whales’ patience or the leverage’s patience will run out first — which do you think it will be? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
"Bitcoin ETF Net Outflow, Institutional Divergence Intensifies"
Bitcoin has been tugging back and forth around the $80,000 mark these past two days. After surging to $84,500 on October 21, it faced large sell-offs for several consecutive days, even dropping below $80,000 on October 24.
Spot ETF funds on the market are no longer buying unilaterally; many institutional arbitrage traders are busy closing positions and exiting. Daily trading volume has steadily declined from $550 million, with spot buying clearly shrinking.
The battle around $80,400 remains intense. If heavy redemption pressure persists, it will be difficult for the market to quickly organize a decent rebound in the short term. $BTC $FIL has been lingering at the bottom for a long time. The real issue may not be the lack of project progress, but rather the token's insufficient value capture ability.
Storage infrastructure continues to upgrade, and paid services are gradually being implemented, but customers are more accustomed to settling in fiat currency, and service providers may sell FIL immediately after receiving it. Coupled with linear issuance, spot selling pressure from exchanges, and crowded market bulls, improvements in fundamentals are difficult to directly translate into sustained buying pressure.
FIL does have long-term value; the real key lies in whether the network can shift from a computing power narrative to genuine paid storage demand.
To break out into an independent market trend, several conditions need to be met:
• Establish a true FIL payment and settlement closed loop
• Continuously reduce circulating supply to ease supply pressure
• Coordinate with bull market capital rotation to attract incremental funds
Before these conditions are gradually fulfilled, FIL is more likely to continue experiencing bottom consolidation and repeated tug-of-war.
Being optimistic about long-term development does not necessarily mean short-term price increases. For FIL, the hardest part may not be price decline, but the long wait and repeatedly tested patience.
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Obviously notBefore the FOMC, don't bet on direction
$BTC: Repeated battles around the 80,000 level
• Dipped to 79,280, four consecutive daily declines, 80,000 shifted from support to a contested zone
• 24h total network liquidations about 578 million, bulls account for 91%
• Retail long-short ratio 0.4861, liquidations increased, but open interest rose against the trend
• ETF weekly net inflow 301 million, outflow of 773 million in the last two days of the week
• Key level: 79,200 is the defense line, only above 82,000 can recovery be discussed
$ETH: Bullish exposure not yet fully cleared
• Low at 2,276, currently around 2,320, cumulative October drop over 12%
• Long liquidations account for 74%; ETH ETF lost 1.18 billion in October
• Hayes liquidated ETH holdings, upgrade delayed, sentiment under pressure
• Long-short ratio still 2.46, more downside fuel than BTC
• If 2,300 breaks, look to 2,220; open interest over 30 billion, may amplify liquidations
In short
BTC is being minced, ETH is clearing accounts. Before the FOMC release, surviving volatility is more important than betting on direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🚨 $TSLA Tesla Q3 earnings released! Profit plummeted nearly 43%, pre-market stock price dropped 4.6%, but is this earnings report really all bad news?
Brothers, first look at the most eye-catching data:
📉 Net profit down 42.99% year-over-year! Revenue about $27.8 billion, growth sluggish, but profit sharply shrank. No wonder the market's first reaction was to sell first, after all, investors' expectations for Tesla have never been just about selling cars.
But looking further down, things aren't that simple! 👇
📈 Auto business shows signs of improvement Excluding regulatory credits, automotive gross margin rose from 16.3% to 17.98%. In a fiercely competitive pricing environment, the gross margin rebound is noteworthy, indicating cost control may be taking effect.
💰 Free cash flow turns positive, cash generation ability draws attention Free cash flow reached $1.531 billion, which helps us better assess the company's cash situation than just looking at net profit. However, whether this improvement can be sustained still needs to be verified in subsequent quarters.
🔋 Energy storage business shines Energy storage deployment reached 13.68 GWh, with a gross margin of 33.33%. The energy business is becoming an indispensable part of Tesla's earnings report.
🤖 The real long-term focus: FSD and Robotaxi FSD paid users exceed 1.71 million, and projects like Robotaxi and Cybercab remain future growth directions that the market is watching. But how much revenue and profit these businesses will ultimately contribute still depends on commercialization progress.Americans no longer believe that prices will come back down.
Latest survey from the University of Michigan:
Prices will continue to rise for the next several years—3.5%.
This is higher than any month in 2019 or 2024.
High prices, just raise interest rates.
But people's mindset has changed, no solution.
The same goes for crypto:
The price of crypto is not determined by inflation,
but by those "willing to take risks."
But the number of risk-takers is decreasing.
Bitcoin has dropped 2.42% in 7 days, 4.64% in a month.
My view:
The drop is not surprising.
It's not that something is wrong with the crypto,
it's that fewer people want to buy.
Until people come back, the decline will continue. $PI has three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activity require confirmation. $ZEC ZEC bulls are still losing money paying interest to hold on hard.
Position volume surged 24%, but the price only rose 12%, active buy-side CVD has been negative all the way, and the funding rate has directly shot up to 10%. This is a typical case of bulls holding on with high interest; the market makers and sellers are quietly distributing chips during this weak rebound.
Severe volume-price divergence combined with shorts earning interest every day means bulls simply can't hold this position; be ready for a big waterfall drop at any time.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇Model tracking high-frequency data leans toward a high growth of 3.5%; professional institutions consistently expect it to fall within the 2.2%–2.8% range, with a midpoint of 2.5%.Filecoin’s proposition is straightforward: decentralized storage should offer useful alternatives for storing and retrieving data. The harder question is commercial demand. Storage capacity alone does not establish that customers are paying for services at sustainable rates. Assessing Filecoin means distinguishing network supply from actual utilization, while considering retrieval performance, pricing, and competition from conventional cloud-storage providers.📉 The $ETH weekend market finally got through! The real test might only start next week!
Brothers, this weekend's crypto market was really exhausting, with light trading and limited volatility. I wonder if you guys made profits or got tormented by the market these past two days?
⚠️ There are several key variables next week that must be closely watched!
1️⃣ The trend of the US stock market may determine the short-term direction of the crypto market.
This week, the crypto market was generally under pressure, and the volatility of the US stock market also affected market sentiment. With the development of stock tokenization and leveraged ETFs like SOXL, KORU, MUU attracting trading funds, some risk capital has more allocation options. However, whether funds continue to flow out of the crypto market still needs to be judged based on actual data.
2️⃣ The technical positions of BTC and ETH have already diverged.
From the Fibonacci retracement structure, BTC has not even touched the 0.5 retracement level yet, and its overall structure is relatively strong; while ETH is gradually approaching the key 0.618 area.
This indicates a difference in the adjustment range between the two, but we cannot conclude that ETH is continuously losing funds based on this alone. What needs to be observed next is whether the key positions can hold and whether there is volume support during rebounds.
3️⃣ The opening of the US stock market on Monday is an important observation window.
If the US stock market stabilizes and rebounds, the crypto market might have a chance to recover; if the US stock market continues to drop, both BTC and ETH may face further pressure.
Especially ETH,Samsung's Q3 profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times. A warming risk appetite often drives crypto assets to rise, but this wave for ZEC looks more like a structural opportunity. Overall, I am cautiously bullish. The current quote is 1245.09, up 2.9% in 24 hours. The bullish momentum remains but it is no longer cheap. The four-hour chart shows 17.90% above the low and -8.22% below the high. The short-term risk of chasing highs is considerable, so position sizing must be carefully considered before deciding direction.
The top 10 buy orders total 1439 against 866 sell orders, with a ratio of 1.66, favoring buyers, but the turnover is only 94.187 million, indicating volume is not solid; the funding rate is 0.0070%, which is neutral. The coin-margined positions total 114,000, indicating leverage sentiment is not overheated. The upward resistance is at 1258.63, and the support to watch on pullback is 1203.47. If volume breaks below this level, the short-term structure weakens.
Strategy-wise, accumulate long positions in batches on pullbacks to 1218.35, set stop loss at 1196.82, and target 1256.47, with a risk-reward ratio of about 1.8. Do not chase if it surges directly; wait for pullback confirmation. Control single trade positions within 20%, exit immediately if stop loss triggers, do not hold losing positions or add to average down.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$ZEC #SK Hynix Q3 earnings are coming, can HBM4 boost profits?
#Samsung Q3 profit expected to increase nearly 8 times, full earnings report coming soon
$ZEC This week is quite critical. On October 28, the Federal Reserve decision; on the 29th, the September PCE—two events back to back, so BTC and ETH volatility is inevitable.
But I don't think there's any suspense about the interest rate itself. The market bets the probability of no change this time is over 90%, with rates likely to stay between 3.75% and 4.00%, which is basically a known fact. What we really need to listen to is what Waller says at the press conference. On October 16 at the IMF, he said, "I won't predict the meeting outcome," which directly dropped the odds of a rate hike in October from over 25% to about 15%. If he continues this tone, risk assets can catch a breather; but if he suddenly emphasizes inflation risks, US Treasuries and the dollar will rally, and high Beta assets will get hit again. Regarding the PCE, the market expects the core annual rate at 3.1% and the overall at 3.6%, both slightly higher than previous values. If it just meets expectations, the damage will be limited; what we really need to guard against is a core PCE significantly exceeding expectations, which would reignite expectations for a rate hike in December.
I won't repeat too much about the price levels. BTC 80,000 is the short-term defense line; only after reclaiming 82,000 to 82,500 can we talk about structural improvement. ETH 2,290 to 2,300 is the key battleground between bulls and bears; if it can't reclaim 2,360 to 2,400, the short-term remains weak.
In such an event-packed week, the direction will most likely be given only after the data is released; betting in advance has low cost-effectiveness. It's more reliable to wait until Waller finishes speaking, the PCE is released, and the market has chosen sides before making moves, rather than guessing now.
$BTC $DOGE $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 80,431 is the upper edge of the contested zone pulled back from 79,330, not a firm hold above 80,000. Four consecutive daily declines + 4-hour bearish alignment + ETF losing 770 million in two days + perpetual longs "paying to hold"—these four facts point to the same conclusion: this wave is a correction, not a reversal. 81,029 is the momentum improvement line, and $82,000 is the real confirmation level. Before the FOMC decision, shorting on rallies is following the trend, chasing longs is against it. Those with positions should defend 79,300 well; those without should wait for the decision to provide direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The two lifelines of the public chain giants: SOL ecosystem's hot coin price cools down, BNB quietly resists the drop the most
First, look at SOL. $101, down 48% in a year, still 65% below the all-time high of 295.
But all ecosystem news is positive: Alpenglow upgrade reduces transaction confirmation to 150 milliseconds; Samsung Wallet's 82 million Galaxy devices will support Solana on-chain USDC transfers by the end of this month; Securitize has brought Apple and Nvidia stock tokens onto SOL; MoneyGram has come to be a validator. Coin price and ecosystem are going their separate ways.
Now look at BNB. $738, market cap $102.2 billion, firmly in fourth place, only down 5% this month—during the same period SOL dropped 17%, DOGE dropped 22%.
The logic is straightforward: BNB is backed by real cash flow from the exchange, with buyback and burn as solid support; SOL relies on ecosystem narrative, which is least valuable during a rate hike cycle.
In a bear market, look at cash flow; in a bull market, look at imagination. The data has already told you what kind of market it is now.
In your holdings, do you have more cash flow or more imagination? $SOL $DOGE $BNB @BTC星辰 The biggest change in this situation is not switching from bullish to bearish, but gradually shifting from trying to treat the rebound as a full trend to repeatedly emphasizing defense. SanDisk went up and then down, Micron is relatively stronger, and he clearly stated: if reducing positions, prioritize cutting the weakest one first, rather than holding all positions to the end just because long positions were opened. First, clarify the final status. When Xingchen ended the broadcast, he still said the long positions remain, mainly including Intel, Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix. Therefore, you cannot interpret his mid-way comments like "want to close" or "can't hold" as having fully exited; nor can you keep only the last sentence "continue holding" while deleting the increasingly cautious risk warnings in between. SanDisk is the position under the most pressure in the whole session. He mentioned multiple times that his cost basis is around 1270, and he did not exit when the price returned to the cost area, then endured another round of decline. He originally wanted to hold longer, but weakness and repeated fluctuations turned this trade from waiting for a rebound into a must-watch defensive condition. At the opening stage, his new participation reference was around 1250, also mentioning that 1250 to 1260 could be considered, with stop loss initially referenced at 1220. This is the new statement for this session and should not be directly copied from the previous entry plan. As the market weakened, he repeatedly asked those holding SanDisk positions to set stop losses around 1230. Later, he mentioned both 1220 and 1230 as defensive references and emphasized not to stubbornly hold on. More accurately summarized, he regards 1220 to 1230 as a range that requires serious defensive execution That day, the storage ETF dropped 7% in a single day, driven by multiple overlapping concerns: the impact of domestic manufacturers' expansion expectations on DRAM, plus Huang Renxun mentioning capital scarcity and concentrated issuance of AI bonds, which made the market start worrying whether cloud providers would cut their computing power budgets. Micron, being the most sensitive to DRAM spot prices in the sector, naturally took the hardest hit. $SNDK $BTC $ETH On Friday, sector sentiment warmed up, and Micron was the only one to close in the green. The reason is straightforward: among the three major manufacturers, it benefits the most from the DRAM spot price increase. SK Hynix focuses on long-term HBM contracts, SNDK specializes in NAND flash, while Micron touches both but has more flexibility tied to DRAM spot pricing. There have indeed been many positive developments this week. Huang Renxun said that storage is unlikely to be oversupplied before 2029, Solidigm's IPO was officially halted, and Western Digital's earnings were relatively strong. With these news materializing, the expectation of spot price increases was first reflected in Micron. However, it should also be noted that Micron has fallen nearly 19% in the past month, which is actually the mildest correction among the three. It holds many AI long-term contracts as a bottom line, so its safety cushion is indeed thicker, but the risk is also clear: once spot prices weaken, it will be the first to feel the pressure. This week is a super week, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft and Google, all directly affecting AI storage demand expectations. The Q3 earnings reports from SK Hynix and Samsung will also set the tone for DRAM spot prices. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #SKHynixQ3EarningsUpcomingCanHBM4BoostProfitability? #MiddleEastCrudeOil#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the Federal Reserve will announce the October FOMC interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting rates to remain unchanged.
However, what may truly impact the market is not whether rates are raised this time, but how the Fed views the upcoming inflation and interest rate trajectory.
Cost pressures from tariffs and the resilience of the U.S. economy could make inflation decline more difficult. If the Fed believes inflation risks remain elevated, even if it does not raise rates this time, it may signal a hawkish stance, potentially leading to a rate hike in December.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ TTM has recovered most of the gap caused by today's earnings report—OKX market xTTMI (TTM Technologies US stock token) at 88.20, exactly at the 24h high, +10.85%, with MA5/30/120 all trending upwards.
What’s driving this? Last Wednesday’s earnings report initially hit hard (the price dropped to 72.84 after the report), but now the market is reassessing the "record-breaking Q3"—plus the recent announcement of acquiring MKS's Ophir optics business. Both the military PCB and laser optics lines are telling a story. This move is an emotional rebound after the plunge combined with institutional buying.
My judgment: from 72.84 to 88, a more than 20% rebound in two trading days, with volume supporting (OKX market 2.89 million, turnover 2.72%). Recovery rallies usually complete in one wave—now at the 24h high, short-term funds are chasing the rebound, but US stock intraday volatility is large, so don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
Watch the signals: can 88.2 (24h high) break out with volume? Above that is the 90 round number resistance; watch if the pullback holds MA5 at 87.77; breaking below 82 (MA30) would indicate this recovery is over.
#TTM #MilitaryElectronics #USStockToken
Not investment advice, DYOR Guys, regarding shorting Unitree, Mi Ge is straightforward with his personal view: I'm starting to be bearish, and the risk-reward ratio for shorting at this position is very high.
Why? The logic behind this stock now is purely holding up on sentiment. A 200 billion market cap is being supported by revenue from selling scientific equipment, propping up the imagination of "embodied intelligence changing the world." The first financial report is about to be released, and the report will be like makeup remover—once the non-recurring profit is out, everyone will know who's naked swimming.
Looking at the market battle, the funding rate has gone from -1.3% to -0.03%. On the surface, it seems the shorts aren't bleeding anymore, but in reality, the longs are also weak. The earlier short squeeze used up all the bullets; now it can't be pushed further. Everyone is waiting for the earnings on the 29th. As long as the report doesn't show extremely better-than-expected industrial big orders or the profit falls a bit short, this is a classic case of good news fully priced in, and a stampede of more selling will come soon.
How to act specifically? Try shorting on rallies above around 100. But remember, this is the first financial report, and the main players will definitely stir things up. If the report reveals a strategic cooperation, it could trigger a big bullish candle to blow up the shorts at any time. So shorting is fine, but absolutely do not go heavy; stop loss must be nailed down. Short in when the rally is weak, make a quick profit from killing valuation, then run—don't hold on stubbornly. $BTC $UNITREE $SNDK
Shorting is okay, but bring stop loss and play lightly.#Solana stock token holder addresses reach 1.5 million, I want to break down this number further
On October 26, Solana announced that the number of on-chain stock token holder addresses reached 1.5 million, about five times that of August. This indicates an expansion in distribution coverage, but there is still a gap between the number of addresses and actual users, as one person can have multiple wallets, and reward distributions also increase the number of holding addresses. I am somewhat optimistic about this direction, but when verifying, I take an extra step: after subsidies decrease, will users still actively trade? Continuous transactions and repeated usage convince me more that demand is forming than simply how many new addresses appear on a given day.#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Currently, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is indeed recovering, but last week Brent crude still stubbornly closed around $115.
The main reason is that the Houthi forces are still launching missiles at Saudi energy facilities. Although Saudi Arabia has intercepted some, the fear of a sudden supply cut keeps investors from shorting crude oil.
As long as the cost of transporting oil doesn't come down, the high premium on oil prices remains firmly stuck. Oil prices can't fall, U.S. inflation expectations will be reignited, and if inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve won't be able to cut interest rates. This triggers a chain reaction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #The October FOMC Rate Decision Will Be Announced This Week
Core conclusion in one sentence: The market unanimously bets on no change this time. The focus is not on whether to hike or not, but on whether the tone is hawkish or dovish, and what kind of rate hike hints are laid for December. This is the key factor stirring the USD, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC markets.
1. Current CME Interest Rate Futures Expectations
- The probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is close to 90%, while the probability of a direct 25bp hike is only about 10%. The baseline scenario is a [hawkish pause]. Since there was a hike in September, the threshold for consecutive hikes is very high.
- The focus has shifted to December: futures pricing shows the probability of a 25bp hike in December has surged above 70%. Mainstream institutional views (Goldman Sachs, etc.) also expect no change in October, keeping the option for a December hike.
- Important reminder: This October FOMC will not have a dot plot or updated economic forecasts. All information comes from the policy statement and the chair’s press conference. It is a "verbal guidance-driven market" meeting, making it easy for expectation gaps to cause market swings.
2. Three Key Issues to Watch in This Meeting
1. How to view inflation stickiness?
Recently, CPI, core PCE fluctuations, and oil price rebounds are the Fed’s biggest concerns. If the speech continues to emphasize that inflation risks have not been eliminated and does not rule out further hikes, that is hawkish, leading to rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and pressure on BTC; if it says the inflation downtrend is still intact and these are just short-term disturbances, the market will interpret it as dovish, giving risk assets a breather. "BTC $80,000 Threshold"
The $80,000 mark was broken, but what’s truly striking isn’t the price—it’s the ETF capital flow flipping from a net inflow of over $1 billion to a net outflow of $772 million within 48 hours.
1. What changed? Earlier this week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF was still attracting funds, but on Thursday and Friday, $772 million was withdrawn, coinciding with BTC dropping below $80,000, hitting a low near $79,300.
2. Why is this significant? The $80,000 threshold has been supported by ETF inflows over the past few weeks. Now that this support capital has actively withdrawn, this level is truly being tested. This isn’t about leveraged longs being wiped out; it’s about the institutional buying "faucet" being turned off.
3. Which interpretation is more supported? It favors an "event-driven preventive de-risking" rather than a "complete trend reversal to bearish." The ETF still recorded about $300 million net inflow for the whole week. Long liquidations on the contract side dominate, but open interest hasn’t collapsed, funding rates are extremely low, and chips are rotating rather than fleeing.
The key focus going forward: after this week’s Federal Reserve decision and tech giant earnings reports, will ETF capital flow turn positive again or continue to outflow? This will reveal more than the $80,000 level itself. Whether $80,000 holds may not depend on the candlestick but on when the faucet is turned back on. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $HYPE and $ZEC: The Leading Indicators of the Market in My Eyes 📊
In my view, $HYPE and $ZEC act like leading indicators for the market 🧭. When BTC was still around 87,000, these two coins had already weakened first: HYPE peaked at 98 and then steadily consolidated downward, while ZEC bottomed near 1700 and then directly broke below its consolidation range. BTC only peaked afterward and has since dropped to around 80,000 📉. This "leading step" characteristic is not appearing for the first time.
In several previous market cycles, whether bear market rebounds or bull market corrections, HYPE and ZEC often gave directional signals earlier than $BTC. Saying their "dog whales" have a very high accuracy in judging the market is no exaggeration 🐶🎯. Therefore, I treat them as important references for judging future market trends.
Currently, HYPE and ZEC are showing signs of short-term bottoming in their pullbacks, especially ZEC, which already shows signs of capital support 💡💰. Of course, this is just an observation signal, not an absolute conclusion, but it is worth continuous tracking 👀. If these two leading indicators continue to stabilize, they might bring some positive hints to the market 📈✨. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ A giant whale's liquidation price is 2256. Just $26 away, his long positions in BTC and ETH worth $396 million would be taken away.
In the early morning, he urgently added 9.21 million USDC as margin, pushing the liquidation price down to 2181, barely crawling out of the ICU. He still holds 115,000 ETH and 1,539 BTC, without reducing his positions.
On the same chain, Big Brother Maji's 25x ETH long position has been completely liquidated. The address now only has $5,357 left, with cumulative losses exceeding $35.37 million.
One survived by adding funds, the other didn't even have the chance to add funds.
But what really kept me staring at the screen for a long time wasn't these two people. It was where the funds are flowing.
Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $301 million last week, turning positive on a weekly basis. Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative loss exceeding $1.18 billion in October. Institutions are abandoning ETH and holding BTC.
BTC is now around 80,000, ETH at 2335. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is imminent, AI concept stocks are being sold off, and oil prices remain above $111. The risk-off sentiment hasn't dissipated, and leveraged longs are being taken out round after round.
That whale who survived by $30, if ETH touches 2181 again, he's gone. And Maji, he's already gone once.
$BTC $ETH Holding AXIS, why am I still not ready to get off the ride?
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Recently, AXIS has been hovering around 0.25, dropping more than 20% in 7 days, which is indeed uncomfortable to hold. But I don't think the project has collapsed; it's more about the cooling off of launch hype and a thin market cap, so even a small sell order can crash the price.
Bitget's CandyBomb and Launchpool end on October 28, so trading and staking demand are still supporting the price these days. Binance Alpha trading competition starts at 21:00 on October 26, with a 3x bonus for early trades, attracting volume traders, so the buying activity is likely to be more active than now. Season 2 airdrop opened on October 23, distributing 60 million tokens to contributors, and the project is still moving forward.
So my expectation is: before October 28, leveraging the tail end of events and the early phase of the competition's buying pressure, AXIS has a chance to rebound to 0.27–0.29; if the hype exceeds expectations, 0.30–0.33 is not out of the question. Beyond that, it will require real catalysts, and I won't hype it.
I also acknowledge the risks: once the events end, demand will withdraw; the circulating supply is only 165 million, so the price can drop quickly; the core question of "who is paying for the data" remains unanswered, which I keep a close eye on.
My stance: I am not panicking around 0.25, nor am I blindly buying; if it truly returns to the expected range, I will seriously consider reducing some holdings.
$AXIS #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Fully raising multiple flags, there are four reasons
1. HBM4 continues to secure long-term agreements (LTA) with major manufacturers, yield ramp-up is fast, and the proportion of high-margin AI storage is increasing;
2. Spot prices for DRAM and NAND have been rising continuously in Q3, with price increases in ordinary server memory driving overall ASP;
3. The market is anticipating large shareholder returns in advance (special dividends/repurchases), and if the plan scale exceeds rumors, it would be an additional positive factor;
4. After Q2, AI capital expenditure has not significantly cooled down, and the restocking pace of leading cloud vendors remains stable.The first batch of about 35 billion is on sale, followed by about 60 billion ATM, intraday low around 629 then bounced back to about 642, $META this "dilution to exchange computing power" I first take as pressure
Beijing time Monday night before and after the US East opening announced: first about 35 billion underwriting (about 22.5 billion Class A common stock + about 12.5 billion mandatory convertible preferred), after Class C listing, up to about 60 billion ATM will be offered, totaling up to about 95 billion; NVDA, AMD, AVGO are interested in subscribing up to about 5 billion combined.
Company guidance for 2026 capital expenditure is about 135–145 billion, operating cash flow for the first three quarters about 97 billion, cash at the end of Q3 about 82 billion. Just last Friday, the stock took a hit due to raising the lower bound of the expenditure range.
Market opened around 638, low about 629, high about 647, current price about 642 close to Friday's close about 642.6, basically flat.
I believe AI infrastructure still needs heavy investment, and I see the 95 billion equity as "dilution first then exchange for ammunition," I don't believe the dilution has been fully priced in around 642.
Tonight, first watch if it holds between about 629–647, if it recovers to about 648–655 then we talk; daily close below about 629 targets about 620.
Do you trust the computing power gained from dilution can outweigh the dilution effect, or do you trust that the financing itself is pressure?
$META
#Today'sMarketTalk🔥 $187 million liquidated, long and short positions both crushed! $ZEC whale shorts floating a loss of $18 million, liquidation price 1312, hanging by a thread
In the past 24 hours, 65,660 people across the network were liquidated, totaling $187 million. Long liquidations were $128 million, accounting for 68.7%; short liquidations were $58.55 million, accounting for 31.3%. In the past 4 hours, both longs and shorts were liquidated: longs $25.5 million, shorts $17.55 million, both sides suffering heavy losses.
But the worst hit are the ZEC shorts. On Hyperliquid, the largest short position in ZEC added $36.81 million margin in the past 24 hours, holding $34.09 million in short positions, with floating losses reaching $18.04 million, opening price 305.9, liquidation price 1312.58. Current price 1254, only $58 away from liquidation.
ZEC surged 2.33% in one hour to 1250, shorts liquidated $410,000, longs liquidated only $10,000, a complete one-sided slaughter.
$BTC repeatedly liquidated around the 80,000 mark, ZEC squeezed shorts above 1250. Longs died on BTC, shorts died on ZEC. On the liquidation map, all shorts are above 1228, and below 1184 is a big liquidation pit. The manipulators profit from both ends, no one escapes. FOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH repeatedly tug-of-war, three major events this week will focus on pricing short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not whether to move or not, but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the Fed's true anchor inflation indicator, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battle focus
#OctoberFOMCRateDecision to be announced this week