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$ETH at its current position, frankly, is just dull. Short-term is weak and oscillating; you can trade swings, but don't expect any big moves.
No rate hike in October, the market has already priced that in, so it's not exactly good news. The troublesome part is what Wash said—his hawkish tone is uncomfortable. Nobody dares to guarantee whether there will be a hike in December. Plus, with the midterm elections on November 3 looming, institutions are very likely to avoid betting on direction for now, and capital is clearly conservative.
So strategically, when the trend is weak, I prefer to first take a short-term short position. The initial target is 2300, then see if 2290 can hold. If it holds, I’ll reverse to go long; if not, I’ll keep watching. In a choppy market, both long and short trades are fine; the key is whether your entry point feels comfortable enough.
$BTC and $ZEC are the same—don’t rush to chase, wait for the right position. Patience is more valuable than judgment at times like this.Today's economic data basically met expectations, including PCE 3.1. In that case, Bitcoin might stabilize around 8, although I am bearish, it won't drop that quickly; it will take some time to decline.
According to my own analysis, today or tomorrow, Bitcoin will surge to the previous high near 818. If it’s strong, it might directly hit 827 before falling, or it might reach the 818-810 range, then pull back to around 795, surge to 827, and then decline.
My recent overall strategy is to go long whenever it drops to around 800-795, while also adding to spot Bitcoin. As long as it can surge near 827, I will heavily short and close positions in the 790-780 range.
Currently, Bitcoin’s trend has formed a bullish pattern. My short positions closed and long positions are already profitable. I’m holding on to see if the longs can reach the target.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is high. Rate hikes might cause a drop, but we need to observe the economic data and global capital flows over the next two months. If GDP remains strong, the rate hike could actually push Bitcoin up to around 100,000.Today, Taurus directly integrated Stellar's smart contract assets into the institutional system: the custody platform Taurus-PROTECT and the tokenization platform Taurus-CAPITAL simultaneously launched Soroban support. Banks and financial institutions can custody, issue, and manage these types of assets within the same interface and API without changing their infrastructure.
PROTECT is responsible for custody and management of Soroban tokens, providing wallet support and a full set of governance and operational controls; CAPITAL handles the full lifecycle issuance and management, supporting token issuance, smart contract function calls, and parameter processing. It covers SEP-41 contract tokens, Stellar asset contracts, OpenZeppelin contracts, and compliance-oriented ERC-3643 assets, namely SEP-57. This integration is not new: in 2024, both platforms were already launched on Stellar, and in 2025, Taurus collaborated with the Stellar Development Foundation and Turbo Energy to use CAPITAL for tokenizing renewable energy project financing.
Personally, I think the real highlight this time is that institutions can use compliant asset structures on Stellar without changing tools. If securities and funds assets really take off, other custodians will likely have to catch up.
Will banks be the first to issue securities and funds on Stellar or$ETH's recent short position clearly demonstrated the "top-touching" strategy. A 100x short position yielded a steady floating profit of +206.44%.
The logic is simple: above 2370 is a previous heavy chip concentration area, with multiple failed attempts to break through. I decisively shorted at 2370.6, anticipating the bulls' exhaustion.
The price moved as expected, with the mark price falling to 2321.66. With 100x leverage, this nearly 50-point range is already impressive. Although there were some wicks in between, as long as the structure wasn't broken, I held firmly.
Reviewing the trade, the core signal was the high-level volume contraction and stagnation. Currently, profits are substantial; the primary task is to protect the gains, and a trailing stop defense is in place. $ZEC $BTC $MSTR The company's profit for this quarter was already disclosed by the company itself in the 8-K on October 5. Strategy estimates that, for the three months ended September 30, 2026, it had: a $20.91 billion gain on digital assets; and a $1.88 billion associated deferred tax expense. Digital asset income was $20.91 billion, with a corresponding deferred income tax of $1.88 billion. As of September 30, it held 847,666 bitcoins, with a book value of $70.82 billion, equivalent to about $83,547 per coin. There is significant divergence in consensus expectations. Among the 9 firms included by Alpha Vantage, the average is 17.98, the highest is 52.82, and the lowest is negative 0.99. Some analysts updated based on the quarter-end coin price, some did not. GAAP earnings per share follow the quarter-end coin price, and since the coin price for this quarter is already known, the consensus reference value is not very meaningful. Let's push the accounts down once. Software business and interest combined are less than 100 million, so let's set that aside for now: 20.91 - 1.88 ≈ 19.03 net profit around 19 billion, minus preferred stock dividends of about 415 million, attributable to common stock about 18.6 billion. The weighted diluted shares during the quarter, including convertible bonds and STRK calculated as converted, IMovement ($MOVE) - a project in the Move language. Initially, it was an Ethereum Layer 2, then an independent Layer 1, and later a relaunch focusing on payments, stablecoins, and remittances to emerging markets. Snapshot as of October 29, 2026 (aggregator data varies): price: $0.0064–0.0068; market cap: $29.8–31.6 million; FDV: $64–68 million; from all-time high: about −99.5%. Main conflict: the project has a clearer product hypothesis than before, but public usage metrics remain modest. Suitable for readers At the end of July, I mentioned that Google search ad revenue growth might not be so healthy, with AI diversion and monetization difficulties gradually becoming apparent.
This time, $GOOGL's Q3 earnings confirmed it: Search revenue was $63.3 billion (+12%), with growth slowing significantly from 17% last quarter, below expectations; Google itself admitted that low monetization of AI Mode was one of the drags. Overall ad revenue missed, and the stock price fell about 10% after hours.
Although Cloud doubled, the core cash cow of Search is already slowing down, and combined with huge AI capital expenditures, free cash flow turned negative.
It was reasonable to remain cautious before, and I will continue to be cautious here. I'm a bit worried that Google might become "funding short" by funds, just like $META's stock performed poorly before Reel took off back in the day.$TLT, why might the Fed's rate hold still suppress long-term bonds? On October 28, the policy range remained unchanged, but inflation is still high, and two members called for a rate hike, so the bond market's reaction is not necessarily dovish. Long-duration bonds depend on future inflation and term premium. If today's PCE is below expectations and long-end yields fall, duration benefits; if price pressures persist, long bonds may still be under pressure. "A 42.54% buffer, against the 10x leverage shake on $IRYS — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
$IRYS 10x short, 0.03841→0.02206, +425.67%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound about 9.25% for that 425% gain to vanish completely.
What does 9.25% mean for $IRYS? A normal upward wick, or even a large order pushing the price up on the order book. In other words, this position doesn't require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately buying — just a technical rebound is enough to wipe it out.
10x leverage magnifies 42.54% into 425%, and likewise magnifies 9.25% into zero. It offers huge profits but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running low. But the key resistance above is not far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I have, only on how far it is from the cost line. 42.54% looks like a buffer, but market fluctuations never make sense.
The only move: push to breakeven, at worst lock in zero, and do not expand exposure. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 No rate hike. Upon landing, the sprinting postures of $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are completely different:
BTC is the flag bearer of this easing rebound, once pushing back above 81000. Although bulls broke below 80,000 in the morning trying to trigger the 79919 pain point, it doesn't affect the capital structure: spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, indicating institutions have already priced in the bearish news.
Wash's comment that inflation is still too high remains a ceiling; there likely won't be a big rally before the midterm election results on the 3rd.
ETH is the weakest among mainstream coins, only weakly bouncing less than 0.5% after the decision, completely missing out on the easing dividend. The root cause is institutional attitude: last week, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $576.9 million over five days, the largest five-day outflow this year, indicating structural position cuts rather than tactical adjustments.
ETH is now a high-beta asset abandoned by institutions; if 2400 is not reclaimed, I won't consider it reversed.
SOL this round is chosen by real money; I think it might even outperform BTC.
SOL is the most promising L1 public chain, with the widest application. It bounced just over 1.2% after the decision, relying on the Alpenglow upgrade as an independent narrative, which has little to do with macro easing. The on-chain narrative is clean; its beta is higher than ETH but it wins with ecological support. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
I lean towards SanDisk EPS exceeding $47.15: strong demand from AI data centers, NAND price increases improving profitability, and historical performance frequently surpassing guidance.$SNDK's non-GAAP earnings per share guidance for this quarter is $44 to $46, with Wall Street's consensus at $46.27. The same press release's outlook table also provides revenue, gross margin, expenses, tax rate, and share count. Multiplying the upper bounds of these items once: (10.8 billion × 85% - 520 million) × (1 - 15%) ÷ 1.55 billion shares ≈ 47.49. Units are in billions of dollars and billions of shares. Revenue is 10.8 billion, gross margin 85%, operating expenses 520 million, all taken at the most favorable end per share, with tax rate and share count as given. The calculated 47.49 is about 1.5 higher than the upper limit of 46 they provided. The lower bound calculated this way is 43.92, close to 44. The company's given range is narrower than the calculated one, compressing the upper end. The previous quarter was similar. The segmented guidance calculated was 30.7 to 33.9, the company gave 30 to 33, and the final reported was 39.25. What determines how much this quarter can exceed is the price. At the August conference call, CFO Luis Visoso said this about the quarter: If you look at Q1, we expect both -- the growth to come from both bit growth and modest price increases. Both volume and price rise, with price only slightly increased. The previous quarter's press release specified this ratio: Sequen$HYPE HYPE's current order book buy side looks absolutely crazy, the protocol is directly using fees to mindlessly scoop up at the bottom.
Every day there are million-dollar level buy orders hanging, and the chips bought are directly sent into a black hole.
Now the total supply has been forcibly burned by nearly 5%. Others are all crazily unlocking and dumping, but Hyperliquid is continuously draining liquidity.
This kind of deflationary market hammered out by cash flow has a terrifyingly strong bottom support; bears holding here are just making things hard on themselves.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇The Iranian Navy announced today that it has engaged US ships more than 20 times during the 40-day conflict and warned, "Next time it will be on a larger scale." On the same day, the World Bank predicted that global commodity prices will rise another 23% in 2026. Every time there is a flare-up in the Middle East, some people reflexively buy "safe-haven" $BTC. Those who have been repeatedly educated over the past few years should understand that this logic does not hold now. War pushes up oil prices, oil prices hold inflation, inflation forces central banks not to ease, and in the end, risk assets all get hit together, with crypto caught in the mix. The current pricing of war is another nail in the coffin for rate hikes, not a flag of safe haven.120 million WLFI incentives will launch in less than 10 hours, yet $WLFI on OKX has not strengthened in advance. Public data at 14:17 (UTC) shows spot price at 0.05131 USDT, down 1.63% over the rolling 24 hours.
In the last complete 1 hour, spot rose 0.47% with trading volume increasing 220.15% compared to the previous period; perpetual rose 0.55%, with volume increasing only 15.93%. However, in the last complete 4 hours, both spot and perpetual were near flat, with volumes down 49.16% and 56.03% respectively compared to the previous window, indicating that the short-term recovery has not reversed the larger cycle's volume contraction.
Binance announced the event starts at 00:00 (UTC) on October 30, where eligible USD1 holders will share 120 million WLFI according to the rules, with an additional maximum 2.5 million USD1 rewards for new positions. The reward scale may affect USD1 holdings and WLFI distribution pace but does not directly prove increased buying pressure.
OKX perpetual open interest is about 136 million WLFI, equivalent to 6.99 million USD, with a funding rate around +0.0026%. If a full hour volume surge holds above 0.05255 and OI expands moderately, the event will be confirmed by price; if it breaks below 0.05110 with increased volume but OI still rising, I would prioritize guarding against leveraged downside amplification.White House Economic Council Director Hassett delivered a string of good news tonight: supply-side prosperity is pushing prices down, GDP is heading toward 4%, inflation is basically under control, and he added that Trump thinks interest rates could be even lower. Sounds great. I just want to remind one thing: the macroeconomic picture the government talks about and the macroeconomic picture the market prices for you are never the same chart. If things were really that peaceful, the 10-year US Treasury yield wouldn't be sticking so high, and gold prices wouldn't keep climbing. The official narrative is responsible for storytelling, the bond market is responsible for the accounting, and when the two clash, I always trust the accounting side first.$ZEC contract and spot funds continue to flow in positively, and the price is also very strong. Currently, it just lacks the drive from the broader market to break new highs.$JUP
A decentralized trading interface can become an important gateway into an ecosystem, but convenience alone does not guarantee durable token demand. Jupiter’s Solana-based trading ecosystem faces a broader question: how effectively can it retain users across swaps, liquidity tools, and other financial products? Product usage, competitive fees, and the relationship between ecosystem activity and JUP’s token utility deserve separate evaluation.$BTC Just now, this 15-minute bullish candle surged upward. The price hit a short-term new high, but the trading volume shrank, which is a bit unexpected. Just before, a bearish candle first broke below 80,000, then closed with a bullish engulfing pattern. Now the price continues to probe higher, but the trading volume is less than the previous surge. The short-term volume and price are not in sync.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the two bearish candles that dropped sharply in the morning each had large trading volumes. Although the price has been rising back over the past few hours in the evening, the volume of each candle is less than half of that in the morning. The price is pushing upward, but the volume is shrinking. There aren't many buyers aggressively chasing the highs.
Switching to the daily and 4-hour charts, the current price has reached the daily resistance near 81,000. On the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are all diverging downward. The price is rebounding upward but just hitting the resistance of these higher-period moving averages.
I am bearish on the outlook. The daily resistance is right overhead, and the 4-hour moving averages are also pressing downward. If the rebound lacks volume support, it will most likely encounter resistance and move down first.
$ETH $SOL #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 $FET
AI infrastructure is attracting crypto capital, but the important distinction is between AI-related branding and services with actual demand. Fetch.ai’s autonomous-agent vision offers a framework for machine-to-machine interactions and automated services. Its challenge is commercial execution: useful applications must attract users, developers, and paying customers. Evidence of recurring usage would be more persuasive than announcements or AI-sector enthusiasm alone.#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges
Microsoft’s Q1 results cement its position as the undisputed leader of the AI era.
Azure accelerated to 48% growth, and OpenAI commercial revenues crossed a massive $10B mark (11% of total revenue). With a historic ~$170B capex runtime for 2026 and accelerating cloud guidance, Microsoft is running away with the enterprise AI market share.
$MSFT When I, the line-drawing sage, see high leverage, my first reaction isn't to look for a down arrow but to get my eraser ready. 📈 I watch the price relative to moving averages, the volume of the rebound, and whether after a breakdown the price can pull back and hold above the level.
Core Trader 71 is shorting BTC this time with 40x leverage, a position of 4 BTC, at a reference price of $80,166. This entry feels very tight on margin for error, but the price itself doesn't prove it's a good spot; I wouldn't take a large position as a bearish signal.
My confirmation logic is: if the rebound volume shrinks and the pullback can't hold above the broken level, then the bearish case gains more support; conversely, if volume picks up and the price recovers, the situation needs to be reassessed. At 40x leverage, a 1% move against you corresponds to about a 40% margin loss (excluding fees), so beyond directional judgment, timing the entry is especially critical.
For these high-leverage short positions, which indicator do you usually use to filter out false breakdowns: volume, moving averages, or RSI? #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK $BTC $QQQ
The opening data is even harsher than pre-market: the Nasdaq fell 1.35%, but the real story lies in the divide between "who is falling and who is holding."
Google A shares plunged 12.27% at the open, Amazon dropped 3.44%, directly dragging down the index. The trigger was no surprise: Alphabet's free cash flow was negative for two consecutive quarters, and capital expenditure guidance was sharply raised. The market voted with its feet—AI investments must prove returns through cash flow, or valuations will be cut first. The storage sector was not spared either; Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital all fell more than 1% at the open, with after-hours losses continuing into regular trading hours.
But another line held firm against the trend: Apple rose 1.70%, Meta increased 1.28%, Microsoft gained over 1%, and Tesla edged up slightly. Microsoft, benefiting from free cash flow far exceeding expectations and strong Azure growth, became the strongest safe haven among tech stocks at the open; Apple and Meta benefited from a defensive premium due to their "narrative without cracks." Behind the 1.35% drop in the index, funds are making extreme selections within the AI chain rather than a broad retreat.
Judgment: In the short term, maintain the pattern of "index oscillation under pressure with intensified internal differentiation." Google's 12% plunge is unlikely to reverse in a single day, and its dampening effect on cloud computing and AI infrastructure sentiment will last several trading days; Microsoft's strength provides a hedge but is insufficient to reverse the Nasdaq's direction.$CRV
Stablecoin liquidity is a critical part of DeFi, and Curve has built its reputation around efficient trading between similarly priced assets. Yet liquidity can be sensitive to incentives, changing yields, and shifts in capital allocation. A large pool does not automatically mean healthy organic demand. For CRV, governance influence and incentive design are important considerations alongside protocol usage and the sustainability of liquidity provision.Event: ZachXBT: Axis Robotics (AXIS) Pros: 1) Spot USDT pairs: 124 up / 118 down, risk appetite remains, no herd selling; 2) Verifiable facts in the original info: ChainCatcher news, disclosed by on-chain detective ZachXBT, insiders of Axis Robotics (AXIS) obtained over 76 million AXIS tokens (worth over $12 million) from a multisig wallet, then sold via DEX and transferred some tokens to Bitget exchange. Cons: 1) A single piece of news rarely changes the mid-term structure; such events usually lack continuity; 2) If volume does not follow after the news, "good news fully priced in" style pullback is likely; Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 80,466.20, 24h -0.11% · ETH current price 2,331.29, 24h +0.11% · Spot USDT pairs: 124 up / 118 down (trading volume ≥ $100,000 threshold) Numbers don't lie, interpretations are half and half—how do you read it? Which point above do you find least convincing? Point it out in the comments.$PENDLE
Yield tokenization gives DeFi users a way to separate exposure to an asset’s principal from its future yield. Pendle makes that market structure possible, creating opportunities for yield trading and hedging. The trade-off is complexity: returns depend on maturity, market pricing, and the underlying yield source. Whether demand persists beyond attractive incentive periods will help determine the durability of this niche.$BEAT, 10x long, entry at 0.08835, target at 0.09866, +116.69%. One times unrealized profit, 10x leverage has a wider margin for error than higher leverage, but small coins can still be liquidated after a period of inverse volatility. This trade survives thanks to a pre-written exit plan, not by holding on stubbornly.
Execute in two steps: lock in most profits, keep the rest at breakeven stop loss to let profits run. Hold if the trend continues, exit if it doesn't, never add to the position to average down. Copy trading is easy to get hit by sudden losses; everyone has different cost tolerance.
Profits are given by the market, preservation is your own responsibility. Those who survive contracts have profit-taking ingrained in their DNA; the highest unrealized profits are when you should be most cautious of overconfidence. For record only, not to induce copy trading, small coins have large volatility. $BTC $ETH #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Everyone is waiting for the Fed's "rate cut to save the market," but two things are moving in the opposite direction tonight: the European Central Bank is holding steady and explicitly says a rate hike in December is still on the table, with Lagarde confirming she will step down early in February next year; the Bank of Canada just raised rates for the first time in over three years a few days ago. Putting these together, the conclusion is quite simple: this is not a global synchronized easing cycle at all. Anyone using "imminent opening of the floodgates" as a bullish reason should first take a look at what each central bank is actually voting for. What they say and what they do are often two different things, and the market ultimately recognizes the latter.On Thursday, the main theme in the US stock market was very clear: Google’s stock plunged about 12% the day after its earnings report, with search ad growth continuously below expectations. Coupled with accelerated AI capital expenditures, the market is repricing the "investment return rhythm"; the Nasdaq fell about 1.5%, while the Dow and S&P retreated more moderately.
Across markets, Binance tokenized GOOGLB dropped about 12% in 24 hours, NVDAB fell about 2%, SPCXB was roughly flat with a slight gain; BTC was slightly down near $80,400. Nvidia and SpaceX followed with limited declines, META was relatively strong against the trend, and Microsoft’s earnings were strong but also dragged by sentiment—this looks more like a structural rebalancing after a leading event shock rather than the AI narrative dying out. Google Cloud still grew about double, and query growth remains high; what was hit were monetization and expenditure expectations.
Do you prefer to pick up cloud+AI positions in Google after the sharp sell-off in US stock tokenization, or wait for Nvidia and SpaceX to fully digest the spillover sentiment before buying? Share your real thoughts in the comments. $BTC $GOOGL $NVDA #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $AMZN reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $5.75 last quarter. Wall Street's consensus for this quarter was 1.96, and Zacks had it at 2.01. The headline looks like it missed by two-thirds, but the 10-Q has a sentence explaining where the difference lies. We recorded upward adjustments of approximately $50.5 billion in Q2 2026 and $62.8 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, to our nonvoting preferred stock in “Other income (expense), net” to reflect observable changes in price related to Anthropic’s fundings. Amazon's Anthropic preferred stock is only adjusted upward when Anthropic raises funds or new transaction prices appear. In Q2, there was a Series H round, and the adjustment was $50.5 billion, all recorded as non-operating income. That quarter, non-operating income totaled 53.4 billion; roughly calculated at a 23% tax rate, it accounted for 3.77 per share. 5.75 - 3.77 ≈ 1.98 Excluding non-operating income, the core business last quarter was about 1.98 per share.After LIT rose about 8.5% at 20:00, it gave back nearly half of the gains at 21:00, but trading volume did not drop much.
OKEx spot closed at $3.2008 at 20:00, with hourly trading volume around $4.12 million. At 21:00, it closed at $3.084, with trading volume about $3.99 million, only about 3% less than the previous hour. As of 22:16, spot price was about $3.0849, with buy and sell depth near the price at approximately $148,000 and $170,000 respectively.
My judgment is that the volume surge and price push at 20:00 has not yet stabilized. The high trading volume at 21:00 accompanied by a pullback means that those entering chasing the previous hour's gains may easily overlook the risk of giving back profits. The trading volume itself does not indicate who is actively selling.
I am more focused on the close at 22:00. If it falls back below the 19:00 high of $3.0101, the significance of the 20:00 surge needs to be reassessed; if it closes back above $3.2008, then we can observe whether the trading volume can keep up.
$LIT 😱 The $SPCX short whale is still increasing positions. How bearish is this wave?
📉 The latest operation shows that this $SPCX major short seller has added $7.25 million more, increasing the position by 73.1% at once. The total short position has reached $17.55 million, with an average opening price of 153.44, currently floating a loss of over $700,000.
What’s more noteworthy is that the liquidation price is set at $207. Even though currently bearing a considerable unrealized loss, this whale seems to have no intention of exiting.
🤔 What exactly is he betting on?
Is he holding information the market has not yet reflected, or is he bearish on SpaceX’s long-term trend, preparing to gradually increase short positions as the price rises?
However, continuously increasing positions does not necessarily mean the judgment is correct. There is still room before the liquidation price, but that does not mean there is no risk. Once the market reverses, leveraged positions may still face huge pressure.
👀 Whale movements are worth watching, but what really matters is position management and risk control.
⚠️ The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#SPCX #WhaleMovements #CryptoMarket #RiskManagement
#SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
The most alarming aspect of this financial report is not that Google's earnings have decreased, but that revenue is still growing while profits and market expectations have not kept pace.
For a tech giant, revenue growth indicates business expansion, but if net profit declines and earnings per share fall short of expectations, the market will question: Is the growth driven by faster rising costs? When will investments in AI, data center construction, and computing power expenses actually translate into real profits?
Google's Q3 revenue reached $127.6 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, but net profit dropped to $26.17 billion, down about 25% year-over-year, with earnings per share at $2.12. A major factor dragging down profits was approximately $8.7 billion in equity investment losses; additionally, AI research and data center investments are also increasing. Reuters +1
However, Google Cloud revenue grew 103% year-over-year, indicating strong AI demand. The real contradiction lies in: how much revenue can AI generate, and how much money does it need to burn?
For investors, revenue growth alone is no longer enough; the next focus is whether AI can deliver profits. If costs continue to rise and advertising business growth slows, the stock price may remain under pressure; if the cloud business continues to deliver profits, the market may reassess its value.【HYPE surges 14% in a single day, shorts start fueling the squeeze】
$HYPE exploded today with a strong rally. Spot price reached $90.88, up 14.08% in 24 hours. Since the low of about $74.58 on October 24, the rebound has exceeded 21%, now approaching the $92–95 zone where selling pressure has repeatedly appeared since September.
There are two forces worth watching in this rally. On one side, Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund has continuously repurchased about $62.3 million worth of HYPE over the past 30 days, providing sustained demand for the spot market; on the other side, the futures market is starting a short squeeze. Market-wide liquidation data from October 29 shows shorts liquidated about $4.5 million in 24 hours, while longs liquidated about $885,000, indicating that shorts were indeed forced to cover during the rally, further pushing prices up.
However, while the short squeeze can quickly drive prices higher, it alone cannot guarantee the continuation of the uptrend. The $92–95 range is the first major hurdle: only by breaking and holding above $95 on strong volume can it challenge previous highs; if it spikes up but then falls back below $87–88, watch out for concentrated short-term profit-taking. The trend is clearly strengthening now, but chasing after a 14% big green candle directly has a less favorable risk-reward ratio than waiting for a confirmed breakout or a pullback to stabilize. The moment the market suddenly quieted down, I actually sat up straight. This wave of low-volume sideways movement—is it the calm before the storm, or is the sentiment really ebbing away? Watching the candlesticks closely these past two days, the more I look, the more it feels like a replay of the 2023 period. Not that the price action is exactly the same, but the rhythm feels so familiar: first, a wave of retracement that makes you question everything, then people in the group start grumbling and saying "this thing is hopeless," and then quietly, the price recovers, and everyone pretends nothing happened. Every candlestick looks different, but the emotional path is almost replicated—doubt, disappointment, despair, handing over chips, then watching it go. But I don't want to just talk about feelings; let's get practical. In this process of lifting from the low point, I noticed a detail: the rebound isn't driven by a single sector pulling hard, but BTC first stabilizes the center of gravity, ETH follows more slowly, and only a few altcoins with narratives are moving. This actually indicates that risk appetite hasn't fully spread yet; it's more like a local probe after contraction. In other words, the market is not trading on "bull market confirmation" right now, but on the expectation that "the worst might be over." Has this expectation been priced in early? I think partially yes, especially by those short-term traders chasing in, who have already taken "it won't fall further" as a default premise. The bullish logic is that sentiment clearing often happens before the price truly reverses. When the criticism is most intense and positions are lightest, any incremental buying afterward can cause large price elasticity. The path of BTC leading the rhythm, ETH catching up, and altcoins rotating is feasible. But the riskI think holding coins long-term also requires periodically reassessing how much of the original reason for buying still holds. If the project has changed direction, but I’m reluctant to sell just because I’ve held it for so long, that’s somewhat like struggling with myself.
Do you set exit conditions for your long-term positions? Not talking about price drops, but rather changes in the project itself—what kind of changes would make you decide to stop supporting it?The European Central Bank still did not take action this time. The key deposit rate remains at 2.50%, unchanged consecutively, and the market's previous expectations for a rate cut have once again been disappointed.
The importance of this event for the crypto market lies not in the price reaction on the day of the decision, but in confirming one thing: the easing cycle in the Eurozone has not truly begun. The cost of capital remains high, meaning the liquidity-driven rally is still missing its most crucial fuel.
Conversely, this also explains why the market structure in recent months has been like this—Bitcoin and Ethereum's rise has been driven more by structural buying, ETF funds, and on-chain narratives rather than a broad-based risk appetite recovery. In this environment, $BTC plays more the role of a hard asset hedging fiat purchasing power rather than a high-beta speculative asset. This is also why it can still hold key positions despite high interest rates.
The variables to watch next are clear: inflation data and wage growth before the next meeting. If inflation continues to fall and rate cut expectations heat up again, risk assets will see a real turning window; if inflation sticks, the high-rate environment will persist longer, and market divergence will become more pronounced.
There is no need to rush to pick a direction in trading. $ETH's trend better reflects the true risk appetite. Observing whether it can maintain relative strength in an environment of rate uncertainty is far more useful than guessing the meeting outcome. Position management is always more valuable than prediction.#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4.0% during the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations.
However, in the 10:2 vote, Cook and Hama advocated for a 25bp rate hike, expanding the hawkish dissent, and the statement upgraded the economic assessment to strong expansion.
Fed's Waller refused to provide forward guidance and announced that starting in 2027, the number of rate decision meetings will be reduced by one per year, with the addition of strategic discussion meetings.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？
Deribit holds the vast majority of the global crypto options market share and is the core hub for institutional options trading. This acquisition directly fills Coinbase's derivatives gap. The acquisition was completed in mid-August, so Q3 revenue only includes the latter half. The financial report shows Deribit contributed $52 million in revenue for the quarter, with total derivatives trading volume reaching $840 billion. Institutional trading revenue doubled year-over-year, directly driving overall revenue recovery.
The benefits are clear: options business revenue is much more stable than spot trading, reducing Coinbase's revenue dependence on cryptocurrency price fluctuations; combined with the launch of US-compliant perpetual futures, the product lineup is complete, enabling conversion of existing spot users to options and derivatives, extending the revenue curve.
However, constraints are also obvious: the integration cycle is long, requiring time for system connectivity, account interoperability, and compliance adaptation, so it is difficult to release all synergy benefits in the short term; the acquisition brings amortization, personnel, and other new costs, which consume part of the new profits. Moreover, options trading volume heavily depends on market volatility; if the market consolidates with low volatility, Deribit's fee income will shrink rapidly.
In summary: Q3 revenue indeed saw a significant improvement, representing a short-term direct realization; but this is a phased benefit, with long-term results depending on integration progress and market volatility. During periods of high volatility, the value of this acquisition will continue to grow; once the market falls into narrow oscillation, revenue elasticity will immediately decline.Around 78K is very likely the end point of this round of correction!
Glassnode's weekly report shows that the BTC buy wall near 80K was swept away on October 15 and then replenished, but was consumed again on October 24, currently leaving only about $3.4 million.
New buy orders are concentrated between 78K–79K, with the scale increasing from $24 million in mid-October to $42 million, a 75% growth.
What’s more noteworthy is that the on-chain realized net losses caused by each drop are shrinking, indicating that the chips willing to cut losses at low levels may be decreasing. The whale on the $AAVE chain dumped 152,000 AAVE tokens to the exchange over five days, and casually brought along over 45 million WLD tokens. My first reaction wasn’t panic, it was laughter—this move is just like rummaging through old clothes under the cabinet before moving and listing them all on Xianyu at once, no bargaining. You’d think it’s about to flee, but it’s slowly moving this week; you’d think it’s rebalancing, but who rebalances so neatly in one go? The key is that the interest on borrowing U in the pool has been climbing these past two days. On one side, the whale is sending goods to the exchange; on the other, borrowers are lining up. Putting these two together just doesn’t feel right. I said at noon that the pool was tight and interest would move first; now to add: the whale’s hand hasn’t even landed yet. Whether it wants to sell or smash the market to create a dip to scoop up, only it knows. $AAVE Sometimes, digging into data of some mainstream coins really helps me make trades. When I'm bored, I like to look at some data. Just now I checked and found that the long-term cycle is still shrinking, the short-term cycle has turned positive first, and the two lines are colliding. Anyway, tonight I'll only follow my own cycle 👀.
Looking at the long-term cycle: ZEC's one-day position shrank by 6.10%, the deepest in the market; SOL shrank slightly by 0.12% in one day; BTC increased by 0.43% in one day; ETH increased by 0.64% in one day. The overall trend hasn't reversed yet.
Looking at the short-term cycle: ZEC turned positive first with a 1.52% increase in one hour; BTC increased by 0.46% in one hour; ETH increased by 0.14% in one hour; SOL only increased by 0.03% in one hour. The first to move in the short term is ZEC, not the three major mainstream coins.
The entire network's position shifted from shrinking to increasing, up 0.74% in one day to 142.509 billion. The long-term cycle isn't dead, the short-term cycle is just poking its head out. This is what I call a collision ⚡.
My three rules, posted on the edge of my screen: Hold BTC according to the long-term cycle above 80,000; exit according to the short-term cycle if it falls below; for SOL around 100, only watch if the short-term line holds or not; if it doesn't hold, don't act on the long-term cycle either; ZEC turning positive in the short term is only a test signal, don't change position before the long-term cycle turns positive.
When there's a collision, don't guess the direction, just follow the signal of your own cycle.
Don't complicate the charts; if the cycles don't align, don't act. I follow my own rhythm! Brief Notes on the Interest Rate Decision Night: Rates Unchanged, But the Sword Still Hangs (・∀・)
The Federal Reserve held rates steady overnight, keeping the range at 3.75%—4%, with a 10 to 2 vote. Cook and Harker both advocated for a rate hike; back in September it was a unanimous 12 to 0, so this split is quite noticeable (¬_¬).
The statement changed “moderate expansion” to “strong expansion,” and the previous line about “rate hikes helping inflation return to 2% faster” was removed. The Wash press conference gave no forward guidance, so the market can only guess (￣▽￣).
CME FedWatch shows over an 85% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.025%. Holding rates steady doesn’t mean easing; with two votes for a hike, the sword still hangs over December (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$BTC was around 80800 at the decision, pulled up to 81100 during the press conference, surged to 81768 at 4 a.m. but was slammed back down, now hovering around 81130, with a funding rate of 0.01%. I see this spike as just a bounce after the boot dropped, not a trend (・∀・).
Short-term support is at 80950—81000; several hourly candles overnight had lower shadows here, so cut losses if it breaks below. Resistance is first at 81450; if it can’t break past the long upper shadow at 81770, don’t chase. Stop loss below 80700, target first at 81770, keep position size small as usual (ง •_•)ง.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 map for SNDK and talk about what's happening with the order book right now. First, let me lay out the levels and positions clearly: Longs are clustered below at 1187.70, 869.1k on OKX, with cumulative long liquidation intensity of 123M; Shorts are clustered above at 1472.70, 273.8k on OKX, with cumulative short liquidation intensity of 49.0051M. At a glance, you can see the volume of longs sitting below is way bigger than the shorts above. Price is now stuck around 1370.4, not going up or down, #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量
Terafab is a significant chip in Intel's foundry transformation journey. This project, led by Musk, aims to establish an advanced chip base in Texas with an annual production capacity of 1 terawatt of computing power, focusing on 2nm process technology to supply xAI, Tesla FSD, and SpaceX space computing chips.
For Intel, this perfectly addresses its most troublesome shortcoming: the lack of heavyweight long-term customers in its foundry business. Previously, IDM 2.0 progressed slowly, with 18A process yield ramp-up and lack of stable large order validation, causing the foundry market share to remain stagnant. Partnering with Terafab not only allows continuous advancement of cutting-edge processes and yield refinement but also secures long-term orders tied to AI, robotics, and space sectors, directly boosting factory capacity utilization.
However, there are also significant uncertainties. The project involves massive investment and a long timeline; shortages of EUV equipment and engineers are hard barriers; the cooperation model is not fully finalized, with uncertainties in future capacity allocation, technology licensing, and profit sharing. Meanwhile, the project prioritizes serving Musk's own ecosystem, limiting incremental external orders, so it cannot immediately compete head-to-head with TSMC.
From the industry landscape perspective, this is Intel's best opportunity for foundry transformation and can set market expectations; however, it is a long-term story with short-term profit realization difficult. The capital market is more about speculating on expectations, and if the project progress falls short, valuations can quickly retract. In the semiconductor sector, order volume, yield, and implementation pace matter more than just concepts.#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
The US core PCE price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3%, in line with market expectations.
Currently the Federal Reserve's most watched inflation indicator, the rebound in core PCE shows that underlying inflation pressures excluding food and energy prices have not subsided, while the overall PCE increase indicates that energy or food prices have contributed more to overall inflation.
The simultaneous acceleration of both indicators, without deviation from market expectations, indicates a temporary halt in the downward inflation trend, and that the policy target is still some distance away.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 On October 29, the crypto market hardly had its own momentum. Bitcoin fell below eighty thousand during the Asian session, hitting a low of 79,883, then 80,133 in the afternoon, a slight drop of less than 1%; Ethereum dropped 1.5%, XRP and Solana weakened in sync. All coins followed something off-chain.
The driving force is off-chain. The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady this week, but the December rate hike is priced in at nearly 70%; tech stocks reported weak earnings, and risk appetite contracted. Crypto liquidity is the thinnest and was sold off first.
Looking at the bigger picture, this is a continuation of a long-term adjustment: September closed at 83,600, then dropped to 79,200, rebounded to 81,500 in mid-October, and now retreated to eighty thousand again. This month has fallen more than 4%, possibly marking two consecutive years of declines in a typically strong October. Coinbase premium remains negative—the money wasn’t driven away by panic, it simply didn’t come in.
Robinhood’s Q3 net revenue hit a record $1.42 billion, but net profit fell 14%; crypto revenue was only $120 million, halved, as users shifted to betting on event contracts. Eighty thousand is not a historic moment, just a level after leverage cleanup. Going forward, the focus is on whether ETFs can sustain net inflows and if there will really be a rate hike in December.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH Macro Background: The "Hawkish Pause" Takes Effect, December Is the Real Card
FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10:2 vote, while Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack advocated for an additional 25BP hike; the statement upgraded the economic description from "solid" to "strong," and Waller said price stability has not yet been achieved, clearly stating that no further forward guidance will be given unless a crisis occurs.
"No rate hike" had long been priced in (about 90% market expectation before the meeting), so the announcement brought no incremental positive surprise. The real impact comes from the jump in December pricing—the probability of a rate hike in December rose from 75% to 81%–86%, with the market already betting on another 25BP hike on December 9.
U.S. Treasury yields are a structural force weighing on BTC: the 10-year yield stands above 5%, the 2-year yield once touched 4.78%, and the dollar is approaching its yearly high—"holding U.S. Treasuries yields 5% interest, while non-yielding BTC is being neglected."
Oil prices and geopolitics add extra pressure: oil prices continued to rise overnight, testing $102, reinforcing expectations of rising energy inflation and sustained high interest rates; Qatar's ceasefire proposal was rejected by Iran, and geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $BTC 🟠 According to River's data, publicly listed companies holding #Bitcoin have increased by 10% over the past year.
The total corporate holdings now reach 19,000 $BTC per month, potentially reaching 13% of the total supply within five years. 💬
$CORE continues to build!$ETH Market Daily｜10.29
Currently, my personal feeling is still to mainly short on rallies, but I have already closed my short positions for now and will wait until next month. The current volatility is too small, so I have little desire to trade.🤓🤓🤓🤓
Market Overview
$ETH current price is about 2316 USDT, 24-hour decline about -2.23%
24h range: 2293 ~ 2385 USDT, trading volume slightly decreased compared to yesterday, overall oscillation is weak, rebound lacks strength, and the end of the session tested key support.
Technical Analysis
Short-term support: 2310, 2290 (200-day moving average + cost basis overlap area, the recent dividing line between bulls and bears)
Resistance levels: 2360, 2380
4-hour RSI near 38, in a weak zone; MACD maintains a bearish alignment, no obvious bullish divergence signal for now, the rebound is more of a correction than a reversal.
Market characteristics: multiple attempts to test upper resistance accompanied by volume contraction, insufficient bullish support.
Funds & Contracts
- Perpetual funding rate slightly positive, bulls slightly dominant, but premium is not high, no extreme crowding.
News & Macro
The US dollar index slightly rebounded, suppressing risk assets.
No major on-chain positive news for Ethereum in the short term, the market mainly follows BTC movements.
Key focus ahead: inflation data, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, which will directly affect crypto market risk appetite.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高