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$BTC
Strategy's market cap has surpassed the Nasdaq exchange, I was stunned for a few seconds when I just saw this number. A company propped up by hoarding coins has a market cap that has overtaken the old exchange selling listing licenses; the world is changing fast.
I casually checked the on-chain data; CryptoQuant's realized price has climbed to around $75,000, which is the average cost line of all network positions. The current price is $80,500, fluctuating between $79,400 and $81,000 in 24 hours, staying close to this line. If it drops there, it will likely be supported; I said this last year, and I’m saying it again now.
Interestingly, there are voices on both sides. Some strategists rank BTC and gold as the two worst-performing assets in 2026, while Galaxy's statistics say 11.1 million BTC have no known holders, accounting for 55% of the mined supply. One side calls it bad, while half the coins' whereabouts are unknown; these coins are either lying in institutional cold wallets or the keys have long been lost. The circulating supply is much tighter than the ledger shows.
Those bearish in words are hoarding in hand; as a small retail investor, I won’t join the frenzy, just holding my position and watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $2500 was support. Now it’s the ceiling that flip says more than the level itself. When a zone that used to attract buyers starts attracting sellers, it means the defenders already left, not that new sellers arrived. $ETH ‘s been doing this quietly while $BTC gets the headlines underperforming on bounces, leading on pullbacks. That’s the real tell, not the 2339 print. Until ETH leads green days instead of following red ones, every “support” is just a pause before the next test.AI drives storage demand, and this logic has already been well discussed. Next, I want to look at an indicator that’s not so suitable for headlines: how much power is needed to complete the same work.
When data centers purchase memory, they of course consider capacity and bandwidth, but the entire system also involves power supply, cooling, and operating costs. No matter how impressive the performance parameters of a single product are, if it increases power consumption too much once installed in a server, customers have to recalculate their costs.
This is also why competition among storage companies can’t always just be about "who expands production more." When customers calculate investment based on the entire system, energy efficiency, stability, and adaptation progress all have the chance to influence the final purchasing decision.
I am optimistic about this direction. It gives companies that truly make good products the opportunity to compete for orders through technological differences, rather than relying on industry price hikes every round.
But optimism must have limits. The test performance announced by manufacturers still needs verification before large-scale deployment by customers; power savings also need to be calculated in conjunction with purchase price and system conditions.
Chip stocks rise and fall daily, which can be frustrating after watching for a while. However, rather than guessing which sector will rebound tomorrow, I prefer to find companies that can actually solve real cost problems for customers. Customers’ electricity bills may be more honest than the slogans in the market.
#AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 Gold fell another 1.29%, spot price broke below 4,000; BTC, however, rose 1.42%. Is safe-haven capital really rotating? First, the news. Three numbers: Gold 4,007.9 (-1.29%, spot 3,996.90), BTC 80,933.5 (+1.42%, nearly one week -0.30%), US Dollar Index 101.81 (+0.20%). On the capital side: BTC ETF net inflows for the eighth consecutive day (+29.2 million), 5-day +202.3 million, 10-day +299.4 million. On the sentiment side: Fear & Greed Index from 51 to 54. On the stock market side: S&P 500 7,623.68 (-0.52%). Next, looking at capital impact. The inverse relationship between gold and BTC has been the main theme in the past two weeks: gold dropped from 4,200 to 4,000, BTC rose from 79,000 to 81,000. During this process, gold's safe-haven premium is retreating, while BTC is seeing capital inflows. But note: the US dollar strengthened during the same period, which pressures both — so this is not a "broad rally driven by dollar depreciation," but rather a "reallocation of capital between two asset classes." Implications for BTC: if this rotation continues, it means BTC is regaining its "asset allocation" status — not as a safe-haven asset, but as the preferred risk asset. However, one day of divergence does not indicate a trend; at least a week of continuity is needed. I will be watching four indicators next: first, whether gold can hold 3,950; second, whether BTC can break above 82 Honestly, the market next week won't be calm; good news and bad news are all packed together.
$BTC $ETH
Israel has elections on Tuesday, with the tough current prime minister falling behind in polls and the neutral faction clearly leading. If the moderates take power, the Middle East conflict is likely to cool down, which would be a solid positive for the crypto space and the US stock market.
The Federal Reserve will also join the fray early Thursday morning next week, basically locked in not to raise interest rates, which is a stabilizing signal. Just watch whether Powell's speech is hawkish or tough; a slightly hawkish tone would actually be somewhat positive.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
But the real main event is still the US-Iran situation!
Whether Trump is serious or just talk, the market is stuck on this answer. Without a clear signal from him, the market will likely remain weak until after the midterm elections.
What retail investors can do is not to hold on stubbornly. Many coins have already corrected by 20%, so buying the dip a little is fine, but don't go all in, and definitely avoid high leverage.
Be patient, hold your spot positions steady, and avoid this chaotic period. Once the US-Iran situation gives a clear signal, the new market trend will naturally restart. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about "privacy + post-quantum resistance."
If you are a holder of $ZEC or $NEAR, there is a recent overlooked technical advancement that could very well become a hidden catalyst for the privacy sector going forward.
ZEC and NEAR are attempting to achieve substantial deep integration in cross-chain privacy.
Cross-chain has always been a vulnerability for privacy assets. Currently, exchanging ZEC through NEAR Intents inevitably exposes a refund address on the public chain, which is also vulnerable under AI computing power.
To address this risk, the ZEC node development team proposed a plan roughly stating: in the future, every cross-chain exchange conducted via NEAR will automatically derive a "one-time private key" for you.
This means that even if quantum computing power eventually cracks a refund address, it will only see an isolated single transaction and will not be able to access your main wallet or core assets.
Those familiar with ZEC should know that the official major event planned is a network upgrade in January next year to implement post-quantum signatures for transparent address pools.
Now, this cross-chain privacy patch is expected to be implemented directly on the software wallet side within the next few weeks.
This is equivalent to the ZEC team submitting a solution ahead of the "post-quantum exam" coming in January, addressing the issue of public key exposure in cross-chain scenarios in advance.
From a narrative hype perspective, this not only solidifies ZEC's fundamentals as the privacy leader but also indirectly provides a security endorsement for NEAR's cross-chain infrastructure Conclusion first: The US spot $BTC ETF had a net inflow of $301 million last week, but this money came in early in the week and was withdrawn again on Thursday and Friday.
Structure is more important than numbers: From Monday to Wednesday, there was an inflow of $1.08 billion, with $BTC surging to a weekly high of 84,777 on Wednesday; on Thursday and Friday, about $774 million flowed out, and the coin price retreated to around 80,000 (according to my OKX 4H chart: this week's high 84,876, low 79,168). During the same period, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow for the fourth consecutive week, about $221 million.
DWF Labs' research on Thursday was even more sobering: Since the ETF launched in January 2024, out of 8 drops exceeding 15%, 7 times the ETF saw net outflows — "ETF investors are not the bottom-fishers you think they are."
On-chain side: OKX $BTC perpetual at 80,504, open interest $3.42 billion (Thursday $3.36 billion), funding rate continuously positive but only 0.00002~0.0001 every 8 hours, leverage is not heavy; the Fear and Greed Index is 50 today, neutral.
So is this $300 million a bottom-fishing fund, or the tail end of a rebound reduction? At the 80,000 level, will the ETF withdraw again?As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, the market's most focused question resurfaces: Does Bitcoin really have enough momentum this time to break through the key resistance level of $85,000? 🔍 Many overlook a crucial fact: market trends depend not only on whether the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but more on whether this decision has already been priced in by the market and the policy signals Powell subsequently releases. ⚠️ If the Fed holds rates steady but Powell's speech remains hawkish, the market's brief optimism could quickly reverse, buying pressure may weaken, selling pressure could increase again, and Bitcoin might fall back into a correction. 🔑 The three key factors that truly determine whether the breakout can hold: 📌 First, beware the expectation trap of "holding rates." Pausing rate hikes does not necessarily mean the market will rise. If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks or hints that high rates will persist longer, risk assets may still face pressure. 📊 Second, watch spot fund flows and trading volume. For Bitcoin to effectively break through $85,000, genuine buying and sustained spot volume support are needed. If the price rises without volume backing, the reliability of this breakout is questionable. 🐋 Third, pay attention to the liquidity structure near $85,000. This level may gather many stop-loss orders, short positions, and potential liquidation orders. Only if the price can break through, hold steady, and gain sustained buying support is there more reason to believe the trend is strengthening BTC is holding near $80,888, essentially unchanged over 24 hours, while ETH is down 0.73%. That relative calm is notable amid attention to ETF-flow swings: price stability may reflect absorption, but it does not confirm durable demand. A renewed flow reversal would weaken the read. Not financial advice.Brothers, BTC and the second coin were suppressed before the central bank's super week, but ETH's on-chain data is going against the ETF
$BTC $80,500 | $ETH $2,335
Bitcoin slid from above 81,000 to around 80,500, once dropping below 80,000 to 79,398 during the session. Ethereum is struggling around 2,335. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $481 million, with longs accounting for $346 million, 64% of net long positions built above 81,993, all currently at a floating loss.
The sell-off is due to macro risk aversion. Before the Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting, the market is generally risk-averse, with tech stocks and crypto being sold off together, and oil prices staying high suppressing risk appetite. BTC's 80,000 is near the 365-day moving average; after breaking below, it quickly pulled back, with funds defending this level.
But ETH showed a counterintuitive signal. Ethereum exchanges saw a net outflow of about 169,800 ETH in one day, worth about $407 million, the largest single-day outflow in nearly four months. Available supply is decreasing, yet the ETF is still bleeding.
Technically, BTC's 79,600-80,000 is a short-term defense line; breaking below points to 78,000. ETH's 2,330 is a key level; holding it allows room for recovery.
Let's discuss in the comments: with ETH exchange outflows and ETF bleeding, who will decide this time?👇
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 10.26 Trump said, "I want to take on Iran," Bitcoin hovered around 80,000 for two days but still in panic.
The small double bottom held. From my technical and logical perspective:
1. The consensus in the crypto community is that integer price levels are hard to break. 80,000 is a dense zone for buying during downtrends and selling during uptrends. This time, the price was hammered twice near 79,000 but was supported both times, indicating short-term bearish momentum is weakening.
2. Both the two bottom tests and rebounds lacked volume, indicating no continued panic selling and no inflow of new funds. Simply put, there is heavy selling high and buying low between 79,200 and 80,900, just grinding time waiting for the Fed and midterm elections.
Here are three key events:
1. U.S. Midterm Elections: This will directly determine the future direction of crypto regulation. If the Republicans take both houses, it’s definitely bullish for Bitcoin. If the Democrats win, they will definitely regulate crypto.
2. The Fed’s rate decision on Thursday: On one hand, the market is digesting high interest rates waiting for Thursday’s announcement; on the other, it’s wary of a possible rate hike in December. Tightening through rate hikes is directly bearish for Bitcoin.
3. Crude oil remains high, inflation hasn’t cooled down completely, so the Fed has no reason to turn dovish, and funds dare not bottom-fish Bitcoin at 80,000.
Simply put: it’s not that Bitcoin can’t fall further, but everyone has paused, waiting for these events to choose a direction.
I’ve said before the bottoms are at 75,000 and 62,000. Now the support above at 84,000 has broken, and it’s stuck at 80,000.
With Middle East conflicts, Trump plans to strike Iran after the elections. As conflicts escalate, Bitcoin will drop to 75,000-70,000 within a month. I will keep shorting Bitcoin, shorting on rebounds.
Currently, with WTI crude oil over 100 and Bitcoin facing resistance at 84,000, 5x shorting is very safe.
Considering crude oil energy inflation + Middle East risks + 4% high interest rates + continued rate hikes this year, I don’t consider going long on Bitcoin. Usually, 3-6 months after the elections, Bitcoin will see a big rally, which might coincide with the end of US-Iran conflicts and easing tensions.
I will start gradually shorting between 83,000-84,000.
Targeting below 77,000 due to the dual bearish factors of elections and Middle East conflicts, expected to be achieved before the end of November.$T T's fee rate is simply outrageous, 4-hour settlement at -0.35%, which annualizes to a negative yield of over -760%.
The key point is that the open interest (OI) is only 6.53 million, accounting for less than 2% of the 24-hour trading volume.
This indicates that the previous rally was all driven by spot buying, with hardly any leveraged long positions built up.
Now the shorts are paying huge interest daily, and the downward pressure can't trigger a chain of liquidations. As long as the spot market buys a couple more times, the short squeeze can directly push the price back up.
#T
$T
👇Today is October 26, and a set of data just came out today that’s even more worth watching than the price itself.
"2,300 broke, but only 3,500 people remain queued to sell ETH"
Ethereum’s intraday low today was 2,282, hovering around 2,300, down 2.7% in 24 hours. Bitcoin fluctuated between 79,500 and 80,400, with a daily low of 79,270, down 36% from the record low of 126,259 USD in October 2025.
Watching the price has been going on for four days. Looking at the structure, today actually signals something else.
The ETH staking exit queue has dropped from a peak of 282,000 to about 3,500. A reduction of over 99%.
The meaning of this number is straightforward: those eager to exit have already left. The queue represents the stock of "wanting to sell but still waiting in line," and its shrinkage to this extent means those who needed to cut losses have done so, and the rest don’t want to move.
At the same time, altcoin open interest contracts have decreased by about 9 billion USD from their peak. Leverage has also been cleared out.
These two data sets together point to the same conclusion: the source of selling pressure is drying up.
But the price hasn’t risen. Why?
Because there’s no reason to buy. Last week, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 220.7 million USD, with only a weak inflow of 4.4 million on Friday; today, the Ethereum Foundation sold another 2,785 ETH, exchanging for about 6.42 million USD in USDS.
Supply is decreasing, demand hasn’t appeared. This is called "can’t fall further, but can’t rise either."
Bitcoin shows the same pattern: funding rate +0.0054%/8h, still positive, longs are still paying; 24-hour perpetual volume is 32.7 billion, down 26% from the previous day; 24-hour liquidations narrowed to 118 million.
Lower volume, positive funding rate, declining liquidations—this is fatigue, not collapse. A real crash would show negative funding rates and collapsing positions, none of which happened today.
Macro hasn’t given a new direction: Brent at 110.46, gold at 3,991 (down from 4,140 six days ago), 10-year US Treasury above 4.9%. Both safe-haven and risk assets are being sold, only oil is rising—when institutions want cash, they sell the most liquid assets.
My probabilities: grinding between 78,000–80,000 until October 30 options expiry 45%; breaking 78,000 to 75,000–77,000 35%; returning above 82,000 20%. The biggest pain point is at 78,000, nominally about 10 billion.
Discussion: selling pressure is exhausted, so why hasn’t the price risen?
My answer is a bit uncomfortable: because "no one selling" and "someone buying" are two completely different lessons, and the market has only completed the first half.
Poll: What do you think ETH is lacking now—A. A reason to buy it; B. Time, waiting for macro to turn; C. A real panic washout; D. Nothing is lacking, just no one cares.
I choose A. The supply side is already healthy to near perfection, the demand side is blank; this structure is the most frustrating because it doesn’t satisfy either side.
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion. #MarketAnalysis $ETHHeat is rising, but prices are falling: PEPE inflows reach 2.11 trillion tokens, SUI funding rate turns positive but loses the moving average, TAO ETF progresses but no one is buying
The names on the heat list are diverging in three ways
$PEPE rose about 10% in 24 hours, up 20.6% for the week, with market cap returning to $2.08 billion. However, exchange supply increased by 2.11 trillion tokens, reversing over 40% of previous outflows, repeatedly testing resistance without breaking through, RSI fell back to 48.09, MACD turned negative, profit-taking pressure is being realized
$SUI slightly dropped 0.65% in 24 hours, underperforming the market. Funding rate +0.0089%, longs are paying to hold positions, not crowded, but price remains below MA20, with 0.8477 as the next support. Leveraged funds want to push up, but spot buying has not caught up yet
$TAO oscillates between 245 and 255, Grayscale Bittensor ETF S-1 filing has advanced to Amendment No. 2, planning to list on NYSE Arca. But 24-hour volume actually dropped 19%, ETF narrative has not translated into buying, $250 has become a level that needs to be proven
Summary: PEPE depends on whether resistance can absorb exchange tokens, SUI depends on whether 0.8477 support can trigger a funding rate long counterattack, TAO depends on whether $250 has volume support. Heat is rising, prices are falling, divergence itself is a signal.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This Thursday at 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and half an hour later, Powell will hold a press conference. These two time points are more worth watching than the market's ups and downs.
BTC has once again touched $80,000, with ETH weakening in sync. The price repeatedly tests this level, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have secured decisive chips.
Last week, US spot ETFs saw significant inflows and outflows, with considerable volatility. Looking at just one week of inflows and outflows is not enough to judge whether institutional demand is truly improving; such data needs to be observed for at least four weeks to get a sense of direction.
Thursday also has a bunch of hard data packed together: at 20:30, the preliminary annualized Q3 GDP, September core PCE and PCE year-over-year, initial jobless claims, and September personal spending month-over-month will be released; at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by Lagarde's press conference at 21:45. When data is this dense, position sizing is more important than opinions.
By the way, a topic worth mentioning: Israel is discussing using cryptocurrency to cope with potential international financial sanctions, which is quite controversial. On-chain transfers can technically bypass banking intermediaries, but a successful transfer does not mean the money can smoothly enter the real economy.
There are still fiat currency exchanges, commercial banks, counterparties, goods trade, and regulatory requirements in between. Just because the tool is available doesn't mean users can automatically escape real-world constraints; this boundary needs to be explored gradually.
My view is that Bitcoin's payment attribute is overrated; its real work now lies in store of value and cross-border settlement.Three cryptocurrencies, three conflicting capital flows
ETH is stuck near 2,300, but the on-chain scene tells a different story. On October 23, about 169,800 ETH were net withdrawn from exchanges, the largest single-day withdrawal in four months; the staked amount has risen to 43.7–43.8 million ETH, accounting for over 35% of the supply. The foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH at $2,304 on CoW Swap the same day, exchanging for USDS stablecoins, and two weeks earlier transferred another 4,393 ETH to Kraken. More subtly, the Glamsterdam upgrade originally scheduled for testnet launch on October 26 was delayed due to EIP-8037 contract compatibility issues. Sellers are selling, lockers are locking, and freely circulating ETH is decreasing, yet ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding $1 billion in October.
BTC is tugging around 80,000. ETFs had a net inflow of 301 million for the week, but on Thursday there was a single-day outflow of 636 million, followed by another 138 million on Friday, resulting in a cumulative net outflow of 314 million in October. 79,400 was the weekend low, 80,000 is a psychological level, and the real variable is the FOMC: about a 92.8% chance of no change in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to nearly 75%.
SOL repeatedly fails to hold $100. ETFs have had nine consecutive days of outflows, but the number of addresses holding tokenized stocks on-chain has surged to 1.5 million, and Morgan Asset Management has launched a tokenized money market fund on Solana. Traditional channels are withdrawing, while on-chain capital is flowing in. Capital isn’t leaving crypto uniformly — it’s becoming more selective.
On Oct. 23, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$138M in outflows, while Grayscale’s Zcash ETF attracted $20.5M.
One session doesn’t confirm a rotation, but the divergence is worth watching: is capital moving down the risk curve, or simply hedging BTC exposure?Today, an additional $2.15 million margin was added, Hyperliquid $BTC TOP4 longs are adding positions both with and against the trend! 💪
Address 0xf08...9e39e opened a 30x BTC long on 10.23, after today's drop opened another 302.5 BTC, currently holding 795.02 BTC ($63.65 million), entry price $81,168.6, unrealized loss of $878,000.
Additionally, they also went long on ZEC, currently holding 4,717 coins ($5.67 million), entry price 1,195.7.
Considering the current market, BTC is repeatedly tugging at the $80,000 level, with only a few days left until the October FOMC. Although the market bets on a pause in rate hikes, the expectation of "higher rates for longer" combined with Middle East geopolitical disturbances keeps macro liquidity tight. Previously, ETFs saw continuous outflows and concentrated deleveraging, with large funds withdrawing long-term. This kind of "whale adding positions against the trend" is highly strategic—30x high leverage resisting unrealized losses, adding margin is more a defensive move for survival. The linked ZEC long shows a bet on the privacy coin sector, but it strongly resonates with the broader market in the short term.
For ordinary people, a whale's "faith" does not equal a retail "bottom-fishing signal." High leverage is easily crushed in a volatile market. Before the FOMC decision, macro uncertainties remain high. It is recommended to stay away from high-leverage contracts, keep light spot positions defensively, and save ammunition to wait for clear trends without betting on direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $DOOD rose 26% today, and the group chat already started shouting "meme is back," but I replied, let's look at the trading volume first before talking...
On October 21, it surged to 0.005217 with a daily volume of 25.1 million. Yesterday, it was only 570,000, shrinking by 98%. Today it rose 26%, but the volume is still at this level. This is not a capital inflow; this is a small amount of money shaking a plate that no one is catching. It's still 64% below the high on 10.21.
$PEPE is the only one among these three with a positive seven-day return, +10.8%. But on 10/23, it dropped from 0.000005117, with all trapped positions above. Each rebound frees some people, adding another layer of selling pressure. You can only blame Sun Ge for pulling the market...
$DOGE is the most honest. Seven days -3.2%, a steady decline with no volume and no story. It’s no longer the meme leader, more like the tombstone of meme.
Luozi's judgment is that the problem with this round of meme is no new entrants.
And before the FOMC, risk appetite shrinks, altcoins and memes are sold first because holders of these have the least faith. DOOD’s rebound is an opportunity for sellers, not for bottom pickers.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Oil price risks pile up as the FOMC approaches: Will the market trade inflation first or interest rates first?
I lean towards trading inflation expectations first, then interest rate decisions. Oil prices have fallen from a six-month high, but that doesn't mean supply risks have disappeared; more importantly, energy has already entered inflation data: U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-over-month in September, and the energy component rose 5.2%. So "pause" cannot be directly translated as easing. The October FOMC will be held on the 27th–28th, and the market should pay more attention to how Powell views the impact of oil prices on inflation and how long interest rates will be maintained at a high level.
But I don't take today's oil price fluctuations as trend confirmation. Brent fell from recent highs on Monday; if oil prices continue to decline and the Fed statement is not more hawkish, the market may switch back to growth and liquidity, and BTC may not continue to follow inflation concerns. Between oil prices and crypto prices, there is still the transmission through the dollar and real interest rates.
I will watch three steps: whether oil prices can stop falling and rebound, whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise synchronously, and whether BTC can stand above the 24-hour high of 80,956. If oil prices fall, yields decline, and BTC recovers 80,956 with volume, my "trade inflation first" judgment fails; conversely, if oil prices strengthen again, yields rise, and BTC falls below 79,378, then inflation pressure has transmitted to crypto prices. For now, watch whether oil prices turn from news into sustained inflation input; interest rates are the follow-up, not an independent answer.
$BTC $ETH $CL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Why might countries at war need BTC, yet the global BTC price falls instead?
War can cause local bank service disruptions, currency devaluation, or cross-border transfer restrictions, leading some residents to turn to BTC and stablecoins.
However, global investors may panic sell risk assets, and leveraged liquidations can further amplify the price drop.
Even more paradoxically, war can also cause internet outages, power cuts, and trading restrictions.
BTC can offer an alternative way to transfer assets, but it cannot guarantee that residents in war zones can use it at any time.If they don't raise rates on Thursday, are you ready to bottom-fish?
Right now, everyone in the group is waiting for the meeting at 2 a.m. Thursday. Even the usually most pessimistic ones have started secretly asking if it's time to bottom-fish.
Interest rate futures have already priced in a 90% chance of no rate hike. Many people are treating this as good news, just waiting for the announcement so BTC can surge upward and they can bottom-fish for profits. BTC at 80,000 and ETH at 2,300 have been sideways for almost two days, which really looks like the drop has stalled.
But I have to pour cold water on that. Everyone is focused on whether there will be a hike in October, but no one is looking ahead.
It's very likely there won't be a hike this time, that's true. But what about December? The market is pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike in December. September just had a round of hikes; rates are now between 3.75 and 4.0. Brent crude oil has dropped from 117 to 114, still weighing on the market, and inflation expectations are at 4.7%.
To put it plainly, this Thursday's meeting is more likely to be "no move this month, we'll see next month," not a dovish pivot.
Think about it: if this were really big good news, would the market have no reaction at all? If someone really knew in advance it was going up, the 80,000 level would have been fought over fiercely already. This kind of indecisive grinding means even big money is waiting; no one dares to move first.
The order book is more telling: $BTC has a bunch of short orders stacked above 80,000, and a long queue at 78,800, 77,600, 76,600; $ETH has clusters of orders at 2,283, 2,266, 2,243, all waiting to be trapped.
If on Thursday there is a spike "because no rate hike," don't rush to follow—it’s a show for you, not a chance to profit.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH New news seen today
Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 Ethereum
And the timing is today
Normally, if the foundation is selling
The price should drop accordingly
But after Ethereum price fell below 2300
It quickly pulled back near 2330
Seeing 2,785 Ethereum seems like a lot
But in the huge crypto market, this amount is actually not much
Instead, it gives many retail investors an illusion
Institutions are selling
Should I sell too? Should I short as well?
What I want to say to everyone: don't be misled by this news
If you are bullish, open a position and set a stop loss, then just ignore it
If you are bearish, similarly open a short position and set a stop loss
My personal view is to go long at the 2300 level
Let me share my thoughts: since institutions are selling, why hasn't there been a big drop? Why would institutions sell at a support level? Why is the news about selling just over 2,000 Ethereum at the support level deliberately released? If Ethereum is expected to drop significantly later, why not sell more now?
Today's news feels more like a smoke screen
A smoke screen to mislead retail investors into shorting #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google Cloud previously achieved 82% growth, a figure truly worth noting.
However, I believe the real test of AI commercialization is not how fast revenue grows, but whether the revenue can cover the continuously increasing costs of computing power, data centers, and R&D investment.
If the cloud business continues to grow while profit margins and cash flow also improve, the case for AI commercialization will be much stronger.
If only investments keep increasing but returns lag behind, the market will sooner or later reassess the valuation.
In this week’s earnings report, what I most want to see is a balance between growth and profitability.
#谷歌云业务增长82% #AI投资回报#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
Looking at companies like Strategy that hold a large amount of BTC, I believe we shouldn't just focus on Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
Book profits can be impressive, but what really needs attention are financing costs, debt structure, share dilution, and the ability to withstand BTC price drops.
In a bull market, holding strategies tend to be amplified; when the market weakens, the capital structure better reflects the risks.
For companies related to crypto assets, how much BTC they hold is important, but how they hold it is equally important.
Do you think Strategy's biggest advantage is its BTC exposure or its financing capability?
#Strategy财报前瞻A whale who has cumulatively made a huge profit of 180 million $BTC is currently holding three short positions on major coins, showing an unrealized loss of over 22 million dollars.
The total position size is over 500 million USD. On the surface, it looks like the longs are getting crushed, but when you check the positions, you realize they never intended to exit: 5 to 7 times low leverage, liquidation price set so far away it’s despair-inducing, and meanwhile, they’re aggressively paying funding fees.
Top-tier big players are playing the game of trading unrealized losses for time. As long as the liquidation price is far enough, even large short-term fluctuations are just a drizzle.#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Samsung's Q3 profits are expected to surge nearly 8 times, with the full financial report soon to be revealed.
Samsung's Q3 profits are forecasted to grow significantly, with AI demand still supporting the memory chip market.
However, I think what deserves more attention than profit growth is: how long can this high growth last?
If AI server demand continues to expand, memory chips may continue to benefit; but if capital expenditures slow down and chip prices peak, the market might price in risks earlier.
The brighter the performance, the more we need to focus on the future, not just the past.
Do you think this AI chip rally is still in its rising phase, or has it already started to overextend expectations?
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍Price stuck near $2300, ETF net redemptions in October exceed $1 billion, and the originally scheduled Glamsterdam testnet upgrade on the 26th has been postponed again. Public opinion is almost unanimously bearish, with waves of pessimism.
However, there is different activity on-chain. About 170,000 ETH left exchanges in a single day, the largest outflow in nearly four months; staking volume remains at a historic high, exceeding 43.8 million ETH.
On the surface, funds are fleeing, but underlying chips are locked. This is not a simple emotional collapse, but a mismatch between short-term redemptions and long-term locking.
What holders really need to distinguish is noise from structure. Price volatility may be turnover or continued pressure. The answer is not in the shouting but in the data.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Let's talk about several highly anticipated popular stocks awaiting earnings reports this week:
$SKHY Hynix's earnings are basically recognized as exceeding expectations, so the stock price's technicals have shown signs of stabilization. Today +1.72%, RSI 37, price 140 has already risen back above MA7.
However, the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, currently showing a volume-shrinking bottoming trend. The earnings report is the day after tomorrow, and the market is likely focused on whether HBM4's market share can hold steady.
$xSNDK SanDisk is in an oversold but not yet rebounded stage. RSI is only 32, and it has retraced 31% from the 30-day high of 1806.
Today's rise is just a technical small rebound above the bottom of the box at 1213, and the volume is only half of the 7-day average, so it won't last. It depends on whether the earnings report the day after tomorrow gives a strong AI SSD guidance.
$HOOD Robinhood has fallen the most thoroughly after its hype faded. The stock price is close to the 30-day box bottom at 3.7%, down 24% from the 30-day high of 123, with MA7 (97) < MA20 (102) < MA30 (106), a standard bearish alignment.
The negative factors of the 7-day challenge period withdrawal wave and shrinking crypto business revenue are still being digested in the stock price, with no signs of bottoming. Instead of catching a falling knife, it's better to wait for the right side.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 【Ancient Whale Awakens, Selling Pressure Increases】
The ancient whale who bought 100,000 $ETH for $31,100 in 2015 has finally moved today. In the past 2 hours, 5,000 ETH were transferred out, of which 1,500 ETH, worth about $3.45 million, have already entered exchanges. The remaining 50,000 ETH have not yet moved, and this is the number the market will truly watch.
He sold half in 2016 at $5.47 each, making about $258,000, and held onto the other half for 11 years. At the current price of about $2,300, the remaining 50,000 ETH are worth approximately $115 million, with early costs almost negligible. Whether he sells now or not, it’s a choice to realize huge profits.
However, transferring to exchanges does not mean they have been sold yet. What can be confirmed now is that 1,500 ETH entered a CEX, and the destination of the other 3,500 ETH cannot be directly identified as selling. What is truly worth watching is that other early ETH holders have recently moved assets, and the market is beginning to face pressure from old players cashing out profits.
At present, this looks more like a selling pressure warning rather than a confirmed dump. Next, watch two things: whether the 1,500 ETH have actually been sold, and whether the remaining tokens continue to flow to exchanges. If deposits continue and ETH weakens significantly, then it indicates that ancient holdings are turning into real selling pressure.🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#DailyOrbit To pour some cold water first, when I see a large long position opened, my first reaction is not bullishness, but how long this position can hold. Core Trader 74 (0x68cb35…02d1e) opened a long on ETH with 25x leverage, with a notional value of about $431,200. This is a newly opened risk exposure, not realized profit; my judgment is that the direction is not the main issue for now, but this leverage has a low tolerance for error.
I’m not in a hurry to get excited for two reasons. First, roughly calculating initial margin by dividing the notional value by leverage, it’s about $17,200; if the price moves against the position by about 4%, losses could approach this margin; the actual liquidation price depends on margin mode, additional funding, and maintenance margin requirements. Second, a single wallet opening a long only shows someone willing to bet on the direction, it doesn’t prove there is sustained buying behind it. If the price doesn’t rise for a long time and then reverses, I speculate the hardest hit will be the high-leverage longs: even if the direction is eventually correct, they may lose the qualification to stay in the market first.
Of course, he might have caught it right. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after pullbacks, I will put away my doubts about the timing of this long, but I will not endorse a 25x risk-reward ratio because of it. What I will watch next is whether the price can hold steady and whether this address will continue to add to the position; don’t mistake willingness to bet for being right.If I Were the Main Force - Subjective Series (Short-term) #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
(Personal opinion, for reference only, not investment advice)
Too lazy to write in detail, also too lazy to analyze. I'll just write how I would operate if I were the main force.
Step 1: Sideways consolidation
The purpose of sideways consolidation is to attract more shorts, creating a false impression that the price can't rise. Ultra-short-term players will feel a lack of momentum, causing bulls to exit and shorts to add positions... keeping the price between 2310-2335 as a setup for the next step... The more short stop-losses above, the less money needed for the subsequent rally...
Step 2: Rally
The short stop-losses just nurtured are most likely between 2340-2350, this time aiming for those stop-losses... the price slowly moves up
2335->2340->2347->2358....
Step 3: Bull trap
The price quickly pulls up... 2350->2360->around 2385... Bulls in the market shout: "Bull is coming", crazily chasing longs, shorts who should stop-loss do so, many flip from short to long....
Step 4: Smash down.... (This is for later... you can ask in the comments)
Note: Don't rule out a fake drop downward after the consolidation... (just a smaller possibility)$CT This 10% rise in CT is purely a bull trap set by the main force.
On the market, shorts are paying interest every day, and the spot price even shows a premium. It looks like a hardcore short squeeze is coming, but in reality, the order book is full of tricks.
The dealer has placed hundreds of thousands of buy orders at the bottom to fake support, luring retail investors in, while quietly placing large sell orders above to unload.
This is using the liquidity from short covering as a cover for selling pressure. Once the fake buy orders at the bottom are withdrawn and buying dries up, it will be a free fall. Trying to catch a rebound at this level is just fueling the institutions.
#CT
$CT
👇【Can the US military start fighting within 96 hours? Is this for real this time】
CNN, citing two US officials, reported that the US military in the Middle East is ready to act and can launch a new round of large-scale strikes within 96 hours once Trump gives the order. Potential targets could also expand to Iranian energy facilities, military bases, and nuclear sites. Don't mistake "ready" for "imminent war"; Trump has not made a final decision yet.
Last week, Brent crude oil $BZ rose more than 6%, reaching nearly a six-month high; on October 26, it fell back to about $115 per barrel, as diplomatic mediation gave the market some breathing room. The core of the trade is the risk of supply disruption, not blindly chasing gains just because of military news.
The real concern is the conflict expanding to energy infrastructure or further impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The potential time window mentioned is after the US midterm elections, but if diplomatic talks make progress, action could be delayed. Next, watch for actual military orders, whether energy facilities are attacked, and shipping data from the strait; before anything materializes, high volatility in oil prices is more worth watching than a one-sided directional move.#USStocks #Apple Last Friday was interesting: on the day the foldable iPhone Duo went on sale, $AAPL surged intraday to 351.73, with a market cap briefly hitting 5.1 trillion, momentarily surpassing $NVDA. Nvidia reclaimed the top spot by close, but only by about 20 billion USD.
The most surreal comparison: Apple’s P/E ratio is 45 with 16% revenue growth; Nvidia’s P/E ratio is 42 with 106% revenue growth, yet it dropped 6% in the past month. A company growing six times slower is valued higher, clearly money is shifting from AI chips to Apple.
Duo is sold out, shipments pushed to January, demand is solid but production capacity will constrain this quarter’s year-end results. Apple reports earnings on 11/2, Nvidia on 11/18; I’ll be watching these two guidance updates closely. Technically, the perpetual contract bottomed near 345 in recent days, 351.8 was last week’s high; I won’t chase before a breakout.
Which side are you on: Apple continuing as number one, or Nvidia taking it back?
Personal opinion, not investment advice$HYPE's recent performance has honestly been a bit disappointing😥
It used to rebound and even surge above $82, but now it’s been oscillating downward, with even $80 becoming a short-term resistance that needs to be broken again.
Interestingly, Hyperliquid's business remains quite active, but HYPE's price performance hasn't kept up.
There are two recent pieces of news worth noting:
First, Hyperliquid Strategies announced an increase in its stock buyback limit to $100 million. Note, this is a buyback of PURR company stock, so don’t mistake it for a direct buyback of HYPE.
Second, according to the current token unlocking schedule, another batch of HYPE will be unlocked on October 29, so market concerns about the increased circulating supply will likely persist for a while.
So, I’m not in a hurry to expect a reversal yet.
Platform profitability is one thing; whether the token can absorb the new supply is another.
If it continues to break below around 75, this round of correction probably isn’t over yet.
Let’s wait for the price to repair the structure first😇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Falling from 84876 to 79168, in this 2180-point pullback, I dug out my position diary and reviewed it again. The real focus of this drop should be the derivatives structure—did you notice that? I sat watching the candlesticks for a long time last night. BTC is now hovering around 80096. That so-called small rebound, honestly, looks more like the bears taking a breather rather than a confirmed trend reversal signal. I marked 79168 as the key support for this week because it is the lower edge of the previous dense trading zone. Once the daily candle closes below it, stop-loss orders and short-selling orders will combine forces, making the rhythm very uncomfortable. On the upside, 80500 is the position bulls must reclaim; if it can't hold above that, all rebounds can only be considered repairs, not a sign of strengthening. What alerted me is something at the contract level. During this decline, the perpetual funding rate quickly dropped from slightly positive to near neutral, indicating that leveraged longs are passively reducing positions rather than actively bottom-fishing. Open interest hasn't collapsed significantly, meaning shorts haven't massively closed out either; both sides are waiting for a direction. In this structure, volume is the only honest signal: a volume-backed recovery above 80500 indicates real buying interest; a low-volume grind upwards is likely a bull trap, followed by another retest of 79168 or even lower. I made two adjustments to my positions this week: first, I cut the chasing longs, leaving only the base position to observe; second, I moved my stop-loss from an emotional level to a structural level—better to get stopped out than to hold a losing position. I’m temporarily avoiding altcoins; until BTC’s direction is clear, risk appetite won’t pick up, and ETH and popular sectors’ elasticity is instead... #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ On October 28, SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report. The market is focused not only on revenue and shipment volume but on a landmark figure: whether the quarterly operating profit can surpass 10 trillion Korean won for the first time.
The core driver remains HBM. With strong demand for AI servers, HBM3E prices and gross margins are far higher than those of regular DRAM. SK Hynix, holding about 60% of the shipment share, has directly converted its technological advantage into a profit advantage. More crucial is HBM4: with mass production advancing and unit prices significantly higher than the previous generation, if major customers like Nvidia ramp up orders smoothly, new profit highs will not be the end.
However, concerns also exist. The storage super cycle is repairing the balance sheets of Samsung and Micron, while competitors are accelerating HBM4 certification and yield improvements; once supply tightness eases, SK Hynix’s pricing power will face a test.
Therefore, the real highlight of the Q3 report is not the “10 trillion” figure itself, but management’s judgment on the HBM4 shipment pace, 2026 price negotiations, and customer concentration risks. AI demand can drive profits to new highs again, but whether this record becomes a starting point is what the market wants to question.The project selling data has started using revenue to buy back tokens 🔮
Pyth DAO passed a 100% rule on October 8, using all revenue for buybacks.
Q3 revenue was $11.5 million, an 86.5% quarter-over-quarter increase.
But the DAO receives about 60%, with annual buybacks less than 1% of market cap.
Today it rose about 7% against the market, stuck around 0.076, trying to recover.
I think the bet is on it recovering 0.076.
If it doesn't recover and falls below 0.07, that's another story.
$PYTHNodes are withdrawing, and the coin price is crashing: Core DAO's fundamentals can't withstand the next bear market
The most critical contradiction for Core right now: the bull market narrative relies on BTCFi and SatPay for cash flow, but the actual on-chain revenue is almost negligible, with the two main pillars—network security and token value—both weakening. Validators have been stuck at 21 for a long time, the project's official nodes are continuously withdrawing, and the network lacks sufficient decentralization redundancy. Once a large-scale validator exit occurs, the network stability risk will rapidly escalate.
The coin price continues to weaken, having retraced significantly from its historical high, and market confidence keeps eroding. SatPay, which originally carried hopes for revenue buybacks, has been repeatedly delayed. Its partner Mobilum is a micro outsourcing fintech lacking core payment licenses in the US and UK markets. The underlying card issuance chain has previously collapsed, and large-scale commercial use is far off, leaving the expected fee buyback logic unsupported.
Institutions like BitGo and Valour are all service providers without primary VC locked tokens as ballast. During market downturns, institutions can shut down nodes or close business channels at any time. Coupled with the leftover selling pressure risk from the August reward vulnerability hard fork, on-chain transaction fee income is minimal, and the ecosystem lacks stable cash flow generation capability.
If the next crypto bear market arrives, with BTCFi sector heat fading and staked funds fleeing, Core—which lacks sustained cash flow, capital backing, and already has weak network validators—will face a huge fundamental impact and will struggle to withstand the systemic valuation cuts of a bear market.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When altcoins weaken, the first thing to watch isn’t the K-line, but "capital rotation" and "market breadth."
My ranking:
1) BTC dominance (BTC.D) stops falling and rebounds — capital starts moving from high-risk altcoins back to BTC, this is the earliest defensive signal.
2) ETH/BTC exchange rate weakens + altcoins rebound without volume — no strong rise, volume expands but price stagnates, indicating it’s not new money but a battle over existing holdings.
3) Stablecoin liquidity stagnates — no new money entering, rebounds rely on rotation, if it can’t hold, it’s a bull trap.
4) ETF capital flow marginally slows — institutional risk appetite cools down, often earlier than retail sentiment.
5) Meme/small caps break support first — they have always been risk thermometers; breaking previous lows basically confirms weakness.
A contrarian view: don’t panic only when BTC crashes hard. The real danger is BTC moving sideways while altcoins quietly decline — calm on the surface, bleeding underneath.
In terms of operations, at the early stage of weakening, first reduce leverage, cut positions, and lower the upper boundary of your grid; no rush to clear spot holdings, but swap weak narratives and high-unlock assets into BTC/ETH. Stop-loss and position management are more important than trying to time the top.
Long-term, I remain bullish, but "bullish" does not mean "fully invested all the time." Bull and bear transitions are never marked by a single big red candle, but by capital quietly relocating.#StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
Tomorrow night at 20:00 Beijing time is the $PYPL earnings call, with the report released before that. I think it's the hardest one to predict this week.
The numbers aren't scary: the market expects EPS of $1.31 (down 2.2% year-over-year), revenue around $8.71 billion, and the company has already said EPS will slightly decline this quarter.
What’s scary is the history. In the last 8 earnings days, the stock dropped 5 times; in February this year it fell 26.3% in one day, while options only priced in a 7.8% move then. This time options are pricing about a 7.2% move.
I’ll be watching two things: whether the brand checkout business that only grew 2% in Q2 can rebound, and the guidance going forward. Cleveland Research just downgraded it to Underperform a few days ago, so expectations aren’t low.
Binance perpetual contracts are now around 57, with resistance at 58 and 60 (where option open interest is most concentrated), and support at 54, which is the lower boundary of this month’s ascending channel.
$HOOD reports the day after tomorrow early morning; fintech is pretty lively this week.
Are you betting up or down? Just one word in the comments. I’ll post a follow-up with the answer after the results come out.
Keep your own records, DYOR, this is not investment advice $ETH
This morning I saw a message saying "An Ethereum ICO whale transferred 1,500 ETH to an exchange, about to dump," and my first reaction was, this has been shouted for years.
I checked on-chain, this address was created in 2015 and hasn't moved for 11 years. This time it moved a total of 5,000 ETH, 1,500 ETH went into the exchange, which at the current price of 2326 is just over 3.5 million USD, the remaining 3,500 ETH were transferred to other addresses with no sell confirmation yet.
3.5 million USD. ETH spot trades over 170 million USD daily, throwing this money in wouldn't even make a splash. Of course, a 740,000% unrealized gain would want to be realized, but this volume can't really move the market direction.
So I don't take it as a top signal. Whenever the old whale moves, people shout crash, but often after the panic the price just returns to the original trend line.
On the other hand, things are really slow, Glamsterdam's Hoodi testnet activation has been delayed again, some warn that gas repricing will affect 13 DeFi protocols, and the mainnet fork might be postponed until next year.
I haven't held for 11 years, I find three months too long, so I have no right to tell others whether to realize profits or not.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 AI has not yet reached the most frenzied stage of the internet bubble era.
ARK Invest's view is that AI infrastructure may still suffer from underallocation of capital. Even though compute-related debt and chip-related debt offer very high yields, investors remain skeptical: where exactly is the end-user demand?
Imagine a fixed income team where someone finds the yields on compute and chip debt very attractive and wants to increase investment, but must first compete internally for more funds.
Management asks: who will keep buying this compute? Can future demand support the current investment?
This creates a contradictory situation: the investment opportunity looks good, but the capital has not fully followed.
During the internet bubble era, the market eventually entered an almost crazy state where many companies' valuations were no longer strictly constrained by fundamentals. The AI cycle may also reach a similar stage in the future, but clearly not yet.
It takes time to go from skepticism to frenzy. Investors' judgments, internal resource allocation within institutions, and market confidence in end-user demand cannot change overnight.
This time gap may leave room for excess returns in the AI infrastructure sector.
But high yields do not equal guaranteed profits; they may also reflect credit risk and demand uncertainty.
The AI story is not just about models and chips, but also about when capital truly believes that demand will materialize.$ZEC
ZEC is now at 1222, up 3.6% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 1238. At the same time, BTC is at 80340 and ETH at 2326, both moving less than 0.3% combined in a day.
The overall market is stagnant, but ZEC is pushing itself upward. I've seen this pattern a few times; ZEC never follows BTC's rhythm. When it falls, it falls harder than anyone, and when it rises, it pulls itself up.
Looking at the contract data, the funding rate is only 0.006%, with open interest at 130 million USD, which isn't crowded, and not many people are using leverage to boost it. This move is driven by spot buying.
My view is that the capital in the privacy sector hasn't withdrawn yet. Don't apply the general market logic to it; when BTC is sideways, it's these kinds of assets with their own stories that get rotated into buying.
My biased judgment is that as long as the overall market doesn't crash, ZEC is very likely to outperform the market.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 LOL, I've already gone all in on OKX's NO. Yesterday, I used AI to search the OKX market and compared it with Poly, and I found this: many prices on OKX are wrong. I don't know what their basis is. I've shared the wealth secrets with you all 😋 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Continuing the mainstream analysis from this morning!! Ethereum will rebound, but it will definitely fall again.
A new round of support level testing. Although there is buying interest at 2300 for Ethereum, the market reaction is actually not significant, indicating that short-term institutional and large investor funds have not fully returned.
In the previous article, I mentioned the FOMC meeting, which is actually about whether there will be a rate hike in October and whether the expectation of a rate hike in December will intensify.
Looking at this week's rate hike probabilities, 88.5% expect rates to remain unchanged, and 11.5% expect a 25 basis point hike. In other words, out of every 100 expectations, 89 bet on no rate hike, and 11 bet on a 25 basis point hike. Major institutions predict that US banks will maintain a rate hike stance, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase expecting no hike in October and a 25 basis point hike in December.
In summary, the data is easy to understand. To put it simply, there is a high probability of no rate hike in October, and the expectation of a rate hike in December is clearly heating up!! Additionally, US debt has already surpassed 40 trillion, crude oil has recently been rising with a slight pullback, and the US dollar index has also pulled back to around 101.5, which needs close attention.
If the US dollar index continues to break upwards, the crypto market will face a significant correction. Therefore, the mainstream trend in the near term is definitely bearish, at least until Wednesday or Thursday, with a fluctuating downward trend. The risk of short-term long positions is too high; those who can close long positions should do so first. Tonight, the US stock market is key!!
If Ethereum rebounds to around 2360 tonight, you can short directly, targeting 2280-2250 BTC falling below 80,000 is not about the price itself, but about who is selling.
The Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%, meaning Americans have been consistently selling at a discount. Saylor didn’t release a Tracker over the weekend, which the market interpreted as a pause in accumulation. Hayes just sold 49.24 million altcoins.
Putting these three signals together, it shows that the money is withdrawing from the US side, not that Asian retail investors are panicking.
My strategy: I don’t try to guess the bottom, nor do I chase shorts. I’ll wait until the premium turns positive before making a move. Woke up this morning to see BTC drop below 80,000 again, and my heart skipped a beat. This is already the second time recently that this round number has been lost; last week it was hovering around 83,000, and now it’s directly dropping.
What I’m more concerned about is another number: the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.1259%. Simply put, this indicator shows whether the buying price in the US is higher or lower than in Asia. A negative value means Americans are selling at a discount, not rushing to buy. For 33 days straight, this is no longer retail sentiment; it’s institutional money flowing out.
Looking at Saylor, he didn’t release Tracker information over the weekend, and the market immediately interpreted this as a possible pause in accumulation. This company has been almost the strongest bottom-line buyer of BTC over the past two years. Once it stops, many leveraged longs lose their psychological pillar.
Arthur Hayes is even more direct, having sold $49.24 million worth of altcoins. Altcoins crash first, BTC follows with a delayed drop; this sequence has played out several times this year.
My own approach is simple: I’m not trying to guess the bottom now, nor am I adding positions. The range between 72,000 and 75,000 below 80,000 hasn’t been tested yet; I’ll wait for the daily candle to close back above before discussing further. If I’m looking for signals, I’m watching two things: when the Coinbase premium turns positive, and when Saylor reports again.