Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC is completely stuck today.
Because the whole market is waiting for data. There’s buying support at 82,800 on the downside, but it can’t break above 84,200 on the upside. Both bulls and bears got wiped out within a day, with 57,000 people liquidated. This kind of narrow sideways trading basically means no one dares to bet; whoever moves first gets hit.
Why isn’t it rising? First, the price has already dropped to 67% of the historical high at 126,080. Technical traders are drawing lines back and forth at this level, and no one wants to be the first mover; second, spot ETF funds have been withdrawing since August and haven’t stopped. The RSI is stuck in the dead zone between 45 and 50, with no momentum, no volume, no story.
CPI is on October 14, and the interest rate decision is on the 28th. Before these two data points come out, BTC will most likely continue to consolidate.
So I believe the sideways movement is not directionless; it’s accumulating for a big move. Non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the market is pricing in a high probability that the October FOMC will pause rate hikes, but this is just a short-term emotional impulse—don't be fooled by the rally! There is no substantial fundamental positive for ETH; the market rebound is expected speculation, with high-level longs overextended and selling pressure ready to materialize at any time.
Next, focus on the Fed meeting on October 27-28. Subsequent officials' speeches and inflation data will continue to disturb the market, and interest rate expectations may fluctuate at any time. I have already opened a short position on two contracts at 2567.87, firmly expecting a pullback. Short-term spikes are opportunities to add to short positions; avoid chasing longs.
Market volatility is extreme; be sure to set stop losses, capture the pullback after expectations are realized, and patiently wait for bullish sentiment to subside. The market appears calm, but both bulls and bears are holding back, waiting for signals. The total market cap is around 2.8 trillion, with a fear and greed index of 56. I hope this is a consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The concern is that the existing market competition is too fragile—ETF funds are generally weak, with BTC net outflows of about 679 million last week, and ETH has been bleeding for 9 consecutive days with over 630 million outflows this month. The Fed's September minutes were hawkish, and expectations for rate hikes by year-end remain; CPI data is a critical watershed.
$BTC $: Tug of war near 83,000, with intense bull-bear competition. QCP's Q4 outlook sees BTC's baseline scenario fluctuating between 80,000-90,000, with 80,000-82,000 as a buying zone. If ETF inflows continue and the Fed pauses rate hikes, a breakthrough above 100,000 is possible. Negative news: The US government transferred 17,733 BTC, raising concerns about selling pressure. But the 80,400 low held, and buying is still absorbing. No chasing the mid-price; wait for CPI to land before making moves.
Hot coins: $SOL broke below all short-term moving averages; the cup-and-handle pattern awaits confirmation; BNB is around 748, with wedge warnings unresolved; XRP fell from 1.52 to 1.40, with questionable rebound strength. The altcoin index dropped 1.1% this week, and the risk of chasing low-quality tokens is rising.
Focus on three key things: CPI data, whether BTC can hold above 83,000, and whether ETH ETF outflows narrow. Patience is more valuable than predictions. This does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk. $STRK hourly chart is under pressure, breaking below the ascending support line. Decisively opened a 50x short position at 0.10937, securing a 346.53% profit.
Price reached 0.10179, technical pattern deteriorated, bears dominate the market. Hold firmly before breaking the moving average.
Leverage trading technicals can also produce false signals; 50x leverage carries extremely high risk. Must abandon any luck mentality and strictly set dynamic take-profit based on technical levels. $BTC $STRK 📊 Today's Trading Recap!
Closed my $STRK short with a +66.85% gain 🟢
📍 Entry: 0.12118
🎯 Exit: 0.10487
💰 Portfolio Update:
Current balance: 592 PKR
Today's return: +14.67% ✅
📈 Market Watch:
$BTC : ~$83,800 — showing signs of recovery
$ETH : ~$2,540 — bouncing back from $2,405
$SOL : ~$112 — attempting a rebound
₿ Bitcoin is holding above the $80K support zone, while traders keep an eye on tomorrow's CPI release for the next market move.
Patience, discipline, and risk.
#DailyOrbit The group is still discussing the trend, and I quietly opened a long position on $NEAR at 5.277, which ended up yielding a big profit.
The contract is highly volatile; on October 12th, there was a clear absorption in the market. I identified a start signal from the K-line bottoming and capital inflow, going long with 50x leverage, pushing the price up to 5.818.
Currently, the market is oscillating around 5.8, with moving averages trending upward, and the bullish trend remains.
If the price later tests 5.8 without breaking it, it may continue to rise. For operations, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies to lock in profits and avoid overtrading. $ETH $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $FIL This trade is indeed fierce. Around 1.0965, the bottom support gradually emerged, and after the selling pressure retreated, the bulls pushed up accordingly. Entered a 50x long position, the mark price reached 1.243, with a floating profit of 668.03% in hand.
This type of asset tends to have strong momentum once the trend starts, but with 50x leverage, the margin for error is extremely low. Currently holding the position. Not greedy, as long as the key level holds, I'll stick with it. If the market loosens, I'll exit. Floating profits that aren't realized are just numbers after all; discipline comes first. $BTC $ETH Another project is preparing to stop maintaining its own chain.
Today, the Sui Foundation announced a $30 million investment in DATA Network. The latter plans to migrate to Sui, and after the migration is complete, retire the original independent chain, with Walrus responsible for default data storage.
DATA is in the AI training data business. Simply put, it keeps track of a few things clearly: who provides the data, whether buyers have the right to use it, and how much contributors should be paid.
I think this direction is quite practical. AI companies need data, data providers want to be compensated, and someone has to handle the authorization and payment in between.
Regarding tokens, $DATA plans a 1:1 migration, with the original lock-up and release arrangements unchanged; the specific migration time has not yet been announced.
My understanding is that application projects are starting to make more serious choices: use mature underlying infrastructure and focus energy on their own business.
What I want to see next is who is buying this data and how much they are willing to pay continuously. $ENA
ENA accelerates its rise, but does the difference between product returns and token rewards still matter?
Today's early morning 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.22041—0.24383 USDT, change +8.02%, trading volume approximately 7.65 million USDT.
The expanded increase only proves the token price recovery; it does not prove that product yield has risen or hedging costs have decreased. If product scale growth brings higher costs, net income may not improve proportionally, so equity transmission cannot be omitted.
If the price falls below 0.22041 and income evidence is lacking, be cautious first; if expenses and risk costs improve and can be verified, and after reclaiming 0.24383 the lows continue to rise, then raise the value realization judgment.$MAGIC The bulls have more than half the money, yet they can't even hold their own cost line!
Look at the smart money, the bulls' positions are 1.5 times those of the bears, and they also outnumber them. Logically, their firepower should be stronger, but the bulls' average cost is at 0.123, and the current price has already broken through this line, turning the bulls' overall position from profit to loss!
Having more money but still unable to hold their own cost line indicates that the bulls have completely run out of ammunition; they've bought all they can. The market can no longer be supported. Once the cost line breaks, the next stop is straight down to the bears' cost line near 0.118. If it falls past that, the bears will all turn profitable, and the manipulators will have no hesitation to push the price down further.
If those with more money can't hold, who else can you expect to hold? Place your short orders first; the next stop is the bears' cost line!$W Damn, a 70% increase in one day, the sudden surge makes me want to short again! Looking at the news, there are two main reasons for this surge: first, Hperliqiud jumped on its bandwagon aiming for a cross-chain ecosystem; second, a whale's early large-scale profit layout triggered a follow-up frenzy! I think the short-term increase is almost at the end, but I can't act immediately because this kind of news stimulus usually pushes the price up over 110% (based on my past observations). It's only up 70% now, including the spike, so there's still a 30-40% tail rally left. So I want to wait a bit first. If I short later, I will share the actual trades for everyone's reference.CPI and PPI Incoming｜BTC's Next Step Depends on Macro Signals
This week, focus on U.S. inflation and employment data. CPI, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will influence the market's pricing of the Fed's future interest rate path.
Two key points to watch:
① Whether inflation is cooling: If core CPI is below expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure, giving risk assets a chance to recover.
② Whether the economy is overheating: If inflation or employment data is strong, rate hike expectations may rise, and BTC could remain under short-term pressure.
$BTC Key levels:
Resistance zone above at 84,500–85,000
Before data release, the market is prone to expectation-driven trading and short-term volatility. Don’t rush to bet on direction; focus on the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC volume-price reaction after the data is released.
Macro drives expectations, price confirms direction. Patience for signals is more important than premature bets
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Transferring such a small amount of Ether to the exchange to sell is most likely to fund new innovative projects. I don't see any problem with that; maintaining the Ethereum mainnet requires spending money. Programmers need funding, projects need funding, and supporting the ecosystem requires funding—there's nothing wrong with that.
I just hope Ether drops so I can get on board. I bought two batches at 2000 and 1750, and since I buy more as it drops, my overall position.
#DailyOrbit $STRK This 50x short position was opened at 0.1066, currently floating with more than double profit. Not sharing the order, purely a review of the logic.
This wave pulled from 0.038 to 0.1268, more than doubling in the short term. Despite positive news (privacy pool breaking 2 million), it surged then fell back, a typical "good news priced in" scenario. On the 4-hour chart, there are consecutive upper shadows at high levels, volume increased but price couldn't push higher, indicating chasing funds can't keep up and profit-taking is concentrated. $BTC
Short-term moving averages have turned down and crossed, price broke below the 5-day and 10-day lines, down 14% intraday. After a sharp rally at high levels, sentiment fades, and if buying funds dry up, a sharp drop follows. The 50x leverage short at the high resistance zone rides the bearish momentum from capital divergence. $ETH
Now approaching the 0.10 whole number level, with moving average support around 0.093 below. Don't be greedy with high-level shorts, keep some for a breakdown, protect profits first. Never stubbornly hold high leverage; making a profit is the right move. When market sentiment fades, don't catch falling knives. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Four consecutive bullish days have reached a critical point! Where to next? Recently, Bitcoin has risen for four consecutive days, gaining over 1% on October 12, reaching a high of $84,150, and reclaiming the $84,000 level. Previously, it dipped near $80,000 before rebounding, indicating some support in this area. The main drivers behind this rebound are a slightly eased macro environment: U.S. long-term Treasury yields have declined, international oil prices have fallen, WTI has dropped below $90 per barrel again, reducing market concerns about further policy tightening, and some funds are more willing to allocate to volatile assets like Bitcoin. Interest rate expectations also show that the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October exceeds 80%. From a technical perspective, the 50-week moving average is an important dividing line. Bitcoin approached $78,800 in September, then stabilized above this moving average; it broke through $86,000 again in early October. This pattern resembles early signals from the upward cycles in 2015, 2019, and 2023. The first resistance above is at $87,000, about $3,000 above the current level. This level marks the highs of rebounds in late September and October, accumulating some sell orders from those looking to break even and bearish limit orders. To continue upward, spot trading volume needs to increase significantly. If volume breaks through $87,000, resistance above is relatively sparse, potentially allowing a quick surge of another $3,000 to test $90,000. From a medium to long-term perspective, the market structure is becoming more stable. The MVRV ratio rose to 1.54 as of October 11, above the 365-day average of 1.44 My Levels:
Level 1: $5.408
Level 2: $5.533
Level 3: $5.667
$NEAR bounced from $4.305 and keeps printing higher lows. Price sits near $5.32, just under the $5.53 to $5.67 resistance zone. Support-1 near $5.25 is the first defense, and $4.998 invalidates the idea. Reason to act now: buyers are defending dips while RSI cools, so a push through $5.408 opens $5.533 and $5.667. Wait for confirmation, not hype.
#DailyOrbit The market appears calm, but both bulls and bears are holding back, waiting for signals. The total market cap is around 2.8 trillion, with a fear and greed index of 56. I hope this is a consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The concern is that the existing market competition is too fragile—ETF funds are generally weak, with BTC net outflows of about 679 million last week, and ETH has been bleeding for 9 consecutive days with over 630 million outflows this month. The Fed's September minutes were hawkish, and expectations for rate hikes by year-end remain; CPI data is a critical watershed.
$BTC $: Tug of war near 83,000, with intense bull-bear competition. QCP's Q4 outlook sees BTC's baseline scenario fluctuating between 80,000-90,000, with 80,000-82,000 as a buying zone. If ETF inflows continue and the Fed pauses rate hikes, a breakthrough above 100,000 is possible. Negative news: The US government transferred 17,733 BTC, raising concerns about selling pressure. But the 80,400 low held, and buying is still absorbing. No chasing the mid-price; wait for CPI to land before making moves.
Hot coins: $SOL broke below all short-term moving averages; the cup-and-handle pattern awaits confirmation; BNB is around 748, with wedge warnings unresolved; XRP fell from 1.52 to 1.40, with questionable rebound strength. The altcoin index dropped 1.1% this week, and the risk of chasing low-quality tokens is rising.
Focus on three key things: CPI data, whether BTC can hold above 83,000, and whether ETH ETF outflows narrow. Patience is more valuable than predictions. This does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk. NEAR at $5.7, do you still dare to chase?
Up 150% in 30 days, from 2.3 to 5.7, ETF attracted $58 million in three days, Intents monthly volume at $4.8 billion — but with perpetual funding rates turning positive and large holders crowded on longs, is jumping in now a feast or a trap?
Let's look at the surface first: NEAR has become the strongest alt in this round.
BTC is oscillating between 83k-86k, ETH hovering around 2550, while NEAR has independently surged from 2.3 in mid-September to 5.7, nearly a 150% increase in 30 days. Market cap is $7.65 billion, ranked top 20, fully unlocked with no unlocking selling pressure. Moving averages are bullish, RSI between 60-67, strong but not extremely overbought. All technical indicators are signaling: the uptrend is intact, don’t get off lightly.
But brother, after a 150% rise, every "it can still go up" you hear should be questioned with a why.
First: The ETF is here, the institutional channel is truly open.
Bitwise spot NEAR ETF (NRR) launched on NYSE Arca on September 29, with a net inflow of $35.5 million on day one, totaling $58 million in the first three days, and AUM quickly surpassing $50 million. This is NEAR’s first US spot ETF.
Sounds small? Compare: ETH ETF was at this scale at launch, then rolled into billions. Institutions don’t buy crypto for a day, but for a year.
Retail asks "Is NEAR going to correct?" Institutions are quietly accumulating.
Second: Intents is not just a concept, it’s real usage with real money.
NEAR Intents cross-chain intent transaction layer had $4.8 billion volume in September, a 73% month-on-month surge, setting a record, with cumulative volume exceeding $34 billion. Fee income has risen sharply, the fee switch (launching February 2026) continuously uses protocol revenue to buy back NEAR, with September buybacks significantly increasing.
In plain terms:
Users trade across 30+ chains, NEAR collects fees
Fees are used to buy and burn/buy back NEAR on the market
This is a "usage → token demand" closed loop, not just hype
Most L1s only have TVL and stories, NEAR has real revenue and buybacks. This is the confidence behind its ability to run independently from BTC.
Third: Technically strong, but high-level risks are on the table.
Up 150% in 30 days, huge profit-taking pressure. $5.98-$6.00 is a psychological barrier and recent high. Breaking through targets $6.4-$6.7; failing means a double top.
Support at $5.5-$5.7, then $5.2-$5.3 below. If daily closes below $5.5 with volume, a retest of $4.8-$5.0 is possible.
Perpetual funding rate turned positive (longs pay shorts, annualized 5-10%), indicating crowded longs. Large holders’ longs cluster on Hyperliquid, shorts have been liquidated in chains. After the squeeze ends, a quick pullback often follows.
Long vs short, judge for yourself:
Long side:
Spot ETF just launched, inflows just starting
Intents monthly volume $4.8 billion, real revenue buying back NEAR
Fully unlocked, no future selling pressure
Technical bullish alignment, independent as long as BTC doesn’t crash
Short side:
150% rise in 30 days, profit-taking can happen anytime
Positive funding rate means cost to hold longs
CPI data (around October 14) may trigger volatility
Breaking $5.5 triggers long stop-loss cascade
Key level 5.7, just 30 cents shy of $6 psychological barrier.
Resistance above: $5.98-$6.00 → break targets $6.4-$6.7
Support below: $5.5-$5.7 → $5.2-$5.3 → extreme $4.8-$5.0
Trading strategy
Aggressive longs:
Scale in lightly at $5.5-$5.7, stop loss below $5.2 (or exit if breaks $5.3 with volume). Target $5.95-$6.1 first, then above $6 look to $6.4+. Position size no more than 10% of total funds, leverage within 3-5x. Volatile, avoid heavy positions.
Conservative approach:
Wait for break above $6 and pullback confirmation before chasing, or wait for stronger support at $5.2-$5.3 before entering. If breaks $5.2, stand aside and wait for new structure.
Shorts:
Trend too strong, not recommended to short against it. Only consider light hedging if clearly breaks $5.5 with volume and macro weakens.
Risk management rules:
Watch liquidation price on perpetuals, always keep enough margin
Monitor open interest and liquidation data, squeezes often followed by pullbacks
Events to watch: CPI, ETF inflows, Intents data updates
NEAR rose from 2.3 to 5.7.
You called it trash at 2.3, now you ask if you can chase at 5.7.
It’s not that NEAR is bad, you just keep cutting losses before it starts and get greedy after it surges.
ETF channel just opened, Intents usage is exploding, buybacks continue — the mid-term story is not over. But a short-term 150% rise needs time and consolidation to digest.
Don’t FOMO chase highs, don’t panic sell. Wait for pullbacks, wait for confirmation, only then can you survive to catch the next wave.
$BTC $ETH $NEAR Latest news, veteran traders help you sort out the key information from the past hour. Market and on-chain movements: The giant whale address 0x706d…1d6f on Hyperliquid has nearly exhausted its 94 $BTC short positions, using 40x full margin leverage, with an average price around 83,517 USD. The unrealized loss has already appeared, with a scale of about 7.88 million USD. Veteran trader comment: 40x full margin leverage means one wrong move and the market will take you out; no matter how big the whale is, leverage makes everyone equal. On the other side, address 0xec4a…cf62 started from zero, simultaneously opening long positions on $BTC, $ETH, and $NEAR, with a nominal amount of about 28.8 million USD, currently showing a slight unrealized profit. Veteran trader comment: Some are short, some are long; the market is this divided. Think carefully if you can handle the volatility before copying trades. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 19 consecutive days, currently at -0.12%. Veteran trader comment: The buying side in the US is indeed weak; a prolonged negative premium is not a positive signal. Crypto security and regulation: ZachXBT criticized the XRPL Foundation, saying the treasury has tens of billions of dollars but only gave a 250,000 USD bounty to the white hat who discovered the "infinite $XRP supply vulnerability," which encourages attackers to go bigger next time. Veteran trader comment: Stingy bounties mean security debts will have to be paid eventually. French lawmakers support a proposal requiring self-custodied crypto assets over 100,000 euros to be declared, with penalties for violations. Veteran trader comment: EuRecording $SAND short position. Entered at 0.0652, at that time the market was "trying to pump but kept getting smashed," existing selling pressure remained, volume-price divergence exposed weakness. Entered 50x short position, mark price 0.06381, floating profit 106.59%, currently holding.
$BTC $ETH
For this type of retreating asset, the core signals are high-level stagnation and capital withdrawal. Ride the short momentum, avoid reacting only after a volume explosion. 50x leverage tests timing even more, do not be greedy with positions, discipline comes first. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 [In-depth Analysis of ZEC Contracts｜
The price successfully broke through the key sell wall at $1253 (previously a strong resistance overlapping with the average entry of short whales) and swept the liquidation cluster near $1340. The number of short whales dropped from 212 to 124, and the position size shrank from 135.7 million to 76.9 million. The current average cost is already below the current price, with an unrealized loss of about $4.7 million—a typical characteristic.
#DailyOrbit Before $6, I won't raise the target yet
The strong performance of $NEAR in this round is recognizable.
The afternoon update is around 5.92, up about 10.8% in 24 hours, and about 16.4% in the past week, which is no longer just a single-day rebound.
But $6 is primarily just a whole number level, and we can't assume there's significant resistance just based on this number.
I will observe when it approaches that level whether the upward movement becomes noticeably difficult, and whether it can continue to attempt after a pullback.
Breaking through is definitely worth attention, and holding above it carries more weight.
Currently, I view it as relatively strong, but I won't prematurely include the next upward phase just because it's near a whole number.
$ETH has rebounded, but the strength can't be rated too highly for now.
The midday quote is about 2545, only about 1% higher than around 2528 last night.
This indicates price improvement, but no clear breakout yet.
I want to see if it can continue to push forward consecutively, rather than rebound once and then stay stagnant for a long time. For now, treat it as a recovery and adjust judgment based on actual performance.
$ARB needs attention for the pullback after the rise.
The midday update is around 0.196, up about 1.8% in 24 hours, but down about 2.6% in the past week.
There is short-term reaction, but no strength shift within the week yet.
We can't assume it will catch up with the same magnitude just because similar coins have risen a lot. It needs to recover its own losses first before discussing whether it can follow stronger trends."Is the pullback intentional? Don't rush to buy this time"
$BTC and $ETH may need to test lower again in the next three days. Only breaking the previous low counts; if not, it will remain in consolidation.
What is this move testing? The patience of holders. Last time it pulled back and then rallied; this time the position is lower, washing out more thoroughly.
Where to test: ETH around 2375, BTC between 78800–79800. This is based on structural analysis, not a wild guess. ZEC has retraced about 30% from its high, the drop is smooth, it may not reach the lowest point, possibly just a light touch.
Reminder: Stop-loss orders placed in that area have already been triggered. Don't place stop-losses right in the middle of support; they easily become fuel.
In terms of operation, don't rush to buy. If it breaks the previous low but quickly recovers, it's a shakeout; if it doesn't recover, expect lower prices. If it doesn't break the previous low, it will continue to consolidate. Control your hands and wait for confirmation.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
This is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me. Yesterday afternoon, when $CASHCAT dipped back, I was watching the order book for stronger buying and quietly entering funds, and I suggested going long around 0.1115. Unexpectedly, right after I posted, the price pushed all the way to 0.1226, with an unrealized profit of +197.3%. Feeling good, brothers.
Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
I took 70% of the position off the table first, raised the stop to cost price for the remaining 30%, let the profits run if it keeps going, and if it pulls back, don't give back the gains. Nailed the rhythm this round, got it.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak, wait for the next move. Wait for a new structure to form, the market isn't short of opportunities, it's patience that's lacking.
$SOL $ETH ETH can rise while ETF flows stay negative. That’s not impossible — it just means the price move needs context.
ETF data showed nine straight sessions of outflows through Friday. The next question is whether spot demand can absorb that pressure, not whether one green candle looks bullish.
For ETH, what would convince you the recovery is real: sustained inflows or stronger price action?$STRK This short position has currently gained about 4 times profit, entered around 0.11054, with the price steadily pushed down to around 0.1017. The previous pullback after the spike was basically fully captured.
This decline is not a normal small retracement; the 15-minute chart has continuously stayed below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and the short-term rebound was immediately suppressed. The selling pressure is quite continuous. MACD is still below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum has not completely disappeared, but KDJ has reached around 20, suggesting the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short here is starting to decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the price quickly dropped from the high of 0.1268, and around 0.10 it has entered a previously dense trading area. This position is more suitable for taking most of the profits back first, leaving a small base position to watch around 0.097. If the price suddenly recovers to 0.104–0.105, a quick short-term rebound should be guarded against. $BTC $FIL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 PUMP has a supply test today: roughly 6.88B tokens are scheduled to unlock, with estimates around $40M+.
That doesn’t mean $40M will hit the market immediately. The real signal is how price and volume react as the new supply becomes available.
If buyers absorb it, that says something. If price weakens on rising volume, that says something else. $PUMPHello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
Today BTC surged past 84000, nearly 60,000 people across the network were liquidated. Wow, liquidations even on a rise?
I think the main liquidations this time were shorts.
Previously, it dropped near 80300, with a bunch of short orders stacked above, and today’s rally swept them all out.
Shorts' stop losses are fuel for the bulls.
If Wednesday’s CPI is positive, these short positions will continue to be liquidated, and BTC might directly surge to 87000.
But if CPI is negative, the bulls’ stop losses will be just as brutal. Now it’s a showdown between bulls and bears.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC $ETH $MAGIC $NEAR 15m timeframe is starting to show distribution signals and weakening short-term bullish momentum.
➔ Waiting for a potential liquidity sweep above the $6.00 psychological level to secure a higher-probability counter-trend entry.
– Entry Zone: $6.10 – $6.20
– Stop Loss: $6.40
– Targets: $5.68 | $5.43
⚠️ If price drops directly without sweeping $6.10+, cancel the setup.Chart Information ETH/USDT Perpetual 1-Hour K-Line Current ETH Price: 2551.66 1. Key Levels Recent Low: 2405.03 (the bottom of this drop) Short-term Support: 2490-2500 range, a dense trading area during previous rebound consolidation Short-term Resistance: 2570-2580, the current K-line is testing this resistance zone Strong Resistance Above: 2739.43, the starting point of the previous major drop 2. Volume and Structure From the low of 2405, a corrective rebound wave emerged; volume increased during the downtrend, and trading volume moderately expanded during the rebound phase, indicating a rebound repair after a major drop rather than a strong bullish trend. Current ETH price is 2551, close to short-term resistance around 2570~2580. The K-line shows signs of small bearish and bullish candles with stagnation. ETH and BTC price movements are highly correlated and can be analyzed together with BTC's market. BTC (Correlation Analysis) Bull-Bear Strategy BTC is currently in a range-bound consolidation (82563 ~ 84500), ETH is rebounding under pressure synchronously, both showing consistent rhythm. 🟢 Short-term Long (Dip Buying Strategy) Entry Conditions: ETH pulls back to 2490~2500 support, 1-hour K-line closes with a stop in decline, no effective breakdown, selling pressure diminishes; simultaneously BTC pulls back to 82563 support and stabilizes. Target: ETH aims for 2570~2580; BTC aims for 84400-84500 Stop Loss: ETH $ETH bounced back to 2,555, but don’t rush to call a reversal
Current quote is 2,555, up 0.82% in 24 hours, looking decent. But on the 4-hour chart, EMA20 is pressing at 2,530, and the upper Bollinger Band is stuck around 2,559, so this rebound is actually struggling. Looking down, there’s 635 million worth of long liquidations piled near 2,412; looking up, if volume breaks through 2,655, shorts with 502 million will also be swept. In short, it’s like a sandwich cookie now, with liquidation waiting both above and below.
On-chain is not looking good. The Ethereum Foundation’s linked wallet just transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, worth 11.13 million USD; this wallet’s average cost from ten years ago was only 658. F2Pool hasn’t been idle either, depositing 2,160 ETH to Binance. Plus, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 542 million last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone pulling out 477 million. To translate: chips are moving out, no new inflows.
October 14 US CPI is the biggest risk this week. If it exceeds expectations, all rebounds could turn into a panic sell-off. My approach is simple—don’t guess the direction, wait for ETH to firmly hold above 2,600 before acting; if it can’t hold, treat it as following the rise, not leading it. The risk-reward for going long here is average; wait for CPI to land before making moves. $ZEC is very strong, truly a powerhouse coin. Now it is targeting the resistance level at 1350; once it holds above this, it will turn into a support level. Therefore, for such strong powerhouse coins, it is best to keep as much distance as possible.🤐
Current price is 1,309.33, up 6.79% in 24 hours, with 8 consecutive bullish candles on the 4H chart, and in the last 20 K-lines, 15 are bullish and 5 bearish, indicating strong short-term momentum.
MA5 (1,282) > MA10 (1,254) > MA20 (1,238), current price stands about 6.68% above MA20 and about 2.68% above MA60, confirming a bullish alignment. MA60 (1,286) has shifted from resistance to short-term support.
The average volume of the last 6 bars is only 1.19 times that of the previous 30 bars. Although the price is rising with consecutive bullish candles, volume remains flat, indicating a lack of incremental support for the upward move. Caution is advised when chasing higher prices.
RSI at 65.8 is strong but not overbought, still room to grow but approaching a sensitive zone. Resistance levels above are 1,347.83, 1,365.67, and 1,384.39; support levels below are 1,305.25, 1,289.34, and 1,278.00. Pay close attention to the battle at 1,347.83: a breakout with increased volume will open up further upside, while a volume contraction and stalled rise may lead to a pullback to 1,305 for confirmation. A $141M crypto lawsuit raises a question retail traders rarely ask: can a token lock-up really protect holders?
DWF-linked firms allege a custodian sold $FF and ESPORTS tokens before agreed restrictions expired. The claims are unproven, but the risk is real: in thin markets, early supply can hurt everyone still holding.
Would you trust a project’s lock-up without on-chain proof?Term Structure Radar
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the best bid for buy near sell far is inverted. Mark near-far spread +0.04%, best bid for buy near sell far spread -0.97%.$SNDK mark price at 1559.7, 75x short position floating profit at 266%, short position profits continue to increase at the upper edge of 1616.9, bearish suppression logic continues to play out.
Structurally, the price has continuously dropped from 1616.9 to 1559.7 (previously 1568.1), with a clear downtrend and no significant deep rebound, bearish momentum remains strong. However, the decline is expanding, making chasing shorts at low levels very low in cost-effectiveness.
With 265% floating profit in hand, the primary focus is to lock in profits. If the 1550-1560 area experiences a dip with stagnation or volume contraction, priority should be given to significantly reducing positions; if volume breaks below 1550, the base position can be extended. Leaving some positions when retesting 1600-1620 resistance is possible; exit if the rebound stabilizes above 1640 but fails to hold. The 1616.9 long-short dividing line remains bearish if not broken, and the principle is not to chase lows. Personal trading record, contract risk at your own discretion. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The real reason behind $MRNA Moderna's continuous surge is here: Moderna is not a "COVID vaccine company," but an mRNA platform immunology company.
Phase III positive results = platform validation rather than single product validation: the market is buying the option that "after success in melanoma, lung cancer, bladder cancer, kidney cancer, and other solid tumors can be replicated"; as long as subsequent HR, OS, and safety do not fail, the valuation floor of the entire mRNA/new antigen track will be revised upward.
Today is just the 0-1 stage; after FDA approval in 2027, it will be the real explosive stage from 1 to over 100!$RSR's recent pump has that familiar Korean flavor
Just opened the market, and RSR's big bullish candle immediately energized me. Upbit launched KRW and USDT trading pairs at 2:05 PM, and within 15 minutes, it surged 66%, reaching a high of 0.00282, now pulling back to hover around 0.0023.
Everyone knows the explosive power of coins listed on Korean exchanges. But the key isn't the price increase, it's the funding rate — hitting an extreme of -2%, meaning shorts are paying to hold positions, a classic short squeeze setup. As long as the price doesn't quickly crash back down, short covering will fuel further upward momentum.
That said, the RSI is already at 82, seriously overbought, and the fear and greed index at 69 is in the greed zone. Chasing highs at this point is like licking a knife's edge. Around the current price of 0.0023, buying on a pullback to the upper middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.00230-0.00238 is relatively comfortable, with take profit first targeting the previous high extension at 0.00262, and stop loss set below MA5 at 0.00209.
News-driven moves come fast and go fast. Don't be greedy; take profits when you can. Personal review, not investment advice. [Old Leek Observation] $PYTH
This time, what’s worth watching about PYTH is not just the oracle track, but that its revenue is starting to establish a more direct link with token demand.
On October 8, Pyth officially announced that all revenue obtained by the DAO from the product will be used for the PYTH reserve fund. The official disclosure showed that by the end of September, ARR reached about $11.49 million, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of about 86.5%.
After the news came out, PYTH briefly rose from about $0.0738 to around $0.0812, and trading volume also significantly increased. But then the price retreated, indicating the market is still digesting this news.
My approach is not to chase the first wave, but to watch for support after the pullback. If the price stabilizes again at $0.078 and breaks through $0.0815 with volume, then there is more reason to observe the next upward move.
Entry: $0.0795–$0.0830 (consider after pullback stabilizes)
Take profit: $0.0870 / $0.0900 / $0.0940 / $0.0980 / $0.12
Stop loss: $0.0765
The buyback mechanism is a plus, but we still need to see actual execution and whether revenue can continue to grow.My Levels:
Level 1: $5.408
Level 2: $5.533
Level 3: $5.667
$NEAR bounced from $4.305 and keeps printing higher lows. Price sits near $5.32, just under the $5.53 to $5.67 resistance zone. Support-1 near $5.25 is the first defense, and $4.998 invalidates the idea. Reason to act now: buyers are defending dips while RSI cools, so a push through $5.408 opens $5.533 and $5.667. Wait for confirmation, not hype.$DOGE DOGE is currently in a correction phase following the early October peak, showing short-term weakness and has yet to confirm a return to an upward structure.
The price has fallen from the $0.095–0.096 range to around $0.087, breaking below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The $0.088–0.092 range serves as short-term resistance; below, $0.084–0.085 is a key support level. If this support fails, the price may further decline toward the $0.078 area.
In the medium term, although a golden cross appeared on the daily chart, the Bitwise DOGE ETF will cease trading on October 14. Net outflows from spot funds, deleveraging in derivatives, and the unlimited supply structure collectively suppress rebound momentum.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as a range-bound consolidation, awaiting directional choice. Key focus is on whether the $0.084 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $0.088–0.092 resistance zone. 10.12 $BTC/ $ETH Market Outlook:
This week, focus on Bitcoin at the 84000 level. Only if the daily candle closes above this level will this correction be considered over, then we can look further up towards around 87000. If Bitcoin can't hold above 84000 on the daily chart, be cautious of a retest near the previous low around 80500. If it doesn't break below, a rebound is expected; if it breaks, a new downtrend will begin. On the downside, consider entering around 75000-76000 as a dip buy!
There is data coming Wednesday night. Before the data release on Wednesday night, volatility should remain low. Major moves are expected after 8:30 PM Wednesday. No need to guess direction these two days; just focus on Bitcoin's 84 and the lower 82 levels. A break above 84 will strengthen bulls and push the market higher; a break below 82 will strengthen bears and test previous lows. Instead of guessing the market, keep a close eye on your positions!
Today, watch the 84000 level closely. Only a strong breakout will push the market higher. Resistance is expected near 85500-86900.
If it can't break higher, watch for a pullback to 82300-80500.
For Ethereum, watch support at 2515-2475 and resistance near 2580-2620-2660.
#BTC Market Analysis📊 #ETH Market Analysis📊Didn't get liquidated, withdrew 6000, after a few days came back and lost my mind$XRP XRP is currently in a pullback and correction phase following the Q3 rebound, showing short-term weakness and has not yet confirmed a return to an upward structure.
The price has fallen from the September high range of $1.60–$1.65 to around $1.41, breaking below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The $1.42–$1.53 range is a key resistance zone; on the downside, $1.38 is a critical support level, and if broken, the price may further test the $1.30–$1.26 area.
In the medium term, XRP remains above the 200-day moving average, with ETF cumulative net inflows of about $1.81 billion providing some support; however, RSI below 50, bearish MACD, and weakening OBV indicate insufficient momentum, and the Evernorth Nasdaq listing effect still requires spot buying to be validated.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as a range-bound consolidation, waiting for a directional choice. Key focus is on whether the $1.38 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $1.50–$1.53 resistance zone. $ZEC ZEC is currently in a deep correction phase following a rally in late September, with a short-term bearish bias and no confirmed trend reversal yet.
The price has fallen from a high of about $1,677 to oscillate between $1,200 and $1,320, breaking below the psychological $1,200 level. The key support is at $1,136; if this breaks, it may further decline to the $900–$1,000 range. On the upside, the $1,369–$1,411 zone is a short-term resistance band, and only a rebound above this range could restore bullish momentum.
In the medium term, ZEC has gained over 1,000% this year, but the Grayscale ZCSH ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week in October, indicating a clear weakening of institutional funds. Leveraged long positions are being liquidated, large on-chain withdrawals and ETF selling pressure coexist, and thin liquidity amplifies volatility.
Currently, it is better to view this as a high-volatility correction awaiting directional choice, with key focus on whether the $1,136 support can hold and whether volume can push back above the $1,369 resistance area.In investing, the most important question is not how much I want to earn, but what price I might have to pay for it? How big is the risk? "Risk control" and "position sizing" should be the first lessons investors learn. I once had a naive thought: You borrow money from the bank (deposits), the interest is low; the bank lends you money (loans), the interest is high, 2-3 times more. It's unfair! Borrowing money is a loss for you but a gain for the bank. Since the interest is so low, and stocks can rise 10% in a day, if you invest the money deposited in the bank into stocks, wouldn't you double your earnings? That's how I started investing. What followed was this: "But I never thought stocks could drop 10%." It actually happened—down, down, down; buy, buy, buy; lose, lose, lose. I've been stuck in this pit for many years. Where did it go wrong? This lesson is really hard to learn. The seemingly simple art of buying and selling is actually very difficult, and the tuition is very expensive. Countless times against the trend, countless times the same lesson, countless times failing to learn. It's a very simple matter; just reverse your habits and you will improve, but I haven't learned it in years. This is where human nature is trained, where you learn to be a person. After all these years, my goal has changed: it's not about how much to earn or profit, but how much to lose? How to reduce losses to 1/10? After principal loss, the required gain to break even is: 10% 11.1% 20% 25% 30% 42.9% 50% 100% 70% 233% 90% 900% The key here is$FIL market is stagnant, but this thing is crazily pumping, and the posts are getting lively. Aren't you guys afraid? Is the confidence in the halving really that strong? $BTC BTC is currently in a consolidation and recovery phase after the pullback from the October rally, showing short-term weakness and has not yet confirmed a return to an upward attack structure.
The price quickly fell from the early October high of about $87,000 and has recently been oscillating in the $82,000–$84,000 range, with $83,000–$84,000 as a key resistance zone; below, $80,000–$80,400 is an important support level, and if broken, it may further test the $77,000–$77,550 area.
In the medium term, BTC is still trading above the 200-day moving average, and the long-term bullish structure remains intact; however, ETF fund outflows, concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs, high U.S. Treasury yields, and rising oil prices suppress risk appetite, causing a noticeable slowdown in institutional demand.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as range-bound consolidation, waiting for a directional choice, with a focus on whether the $80,000 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $83,000–$84,000 resistance zone. Trump is once again using wordplay to steer the narrative, blowing the stalled negotiations into an "immediate ceasefire,"
the market is trading ahead of time, be cautious of short-term swings.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
On the 11th, Trump posted that the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire takes effect immediately and both sides have agreed.
But Zelensky said this is news, the Ukrainian side only stated "If Russia stops, we stop," and the Russian side has not confirmed yet.
Moreover, after his announcement, Russian forces still attacked Ukrainian power plants, which was a harsh slap in the face.
Clearly, Trump wants to use this diesel volume increase and temporary sanction relaxation negotiated with Russia, while pressuring Ukraine to stop attacking refineries, treating oil prices as a domestic political tool.
Brent $BZ fell back to around 103 because of his statement,
this is an emotion-driven short-term pullback, not a fundamental reversal.
Diesel futures fell even more sharply, indicating the market has traded the potential volume increase ahead of time.
But we must understand that what can truly sustain price pressure is a substantive ceasefire and supply restoration, not a single post.
Russia-Ukraine mutual trust is low and history repeats; Middle East risks remain unresolved—Houthis continue to attack Saudi airports and facilities, Hormuz oil tankers were attacked again over the weekend, and Iran has tightened control.
Now that the ceasefire has fallen through and the Middle East escalates again, the rebound will be quick.
Oil prices remain bullish, any dip is an opportunity.
If Brent falls below 100, go long directly, with targets at 105-110.
$BTC $ETH can be shorted at resistance levels above to catch a round of short-term correction.$OKB OKB is currently in a correction phase following the peak surge in early October, showing short-term weakness and has yet to confirm a return to an upward structure.
The price quickly fell from the high of approximately $143.9 on October 6, recently oscillating between $123 and $126. It has broken below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the $127–$133 range acting as short-term resistance; the key support is near $123, and if broken, it may further decline to the $119–$120 area.
In the medium term, OKB remains above the 200-day moving average, with the X Layer ecosystem and deflationary mechanism providing some support; however, short-term MACD and ADX indicators are bearish, and RSI is near oversold, so the probability of a rebound remains low.
Currently, it is better viewed as range-bound, awaiting a directional choice, with a focus on whether the $123 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $127–$133 resistance zone. Besides ETFs, a group of publicly listed companies have included SOL in their balance sheets.
A total of 23 companies and governments hold 19.6 million $SOL, worth $2.19 billion, accounting for 3.08% of the total supply. Including various funds, 48 holders collectively own 47.2 million tokens, representing 8.01% of the circulating supply.
The largest holder among companies is the US-listed FWDI with 8.5 million tokens, still buying as of October 1. Next are another US-listed DFDV with 2.56 million tokens, UPXI with 2.34 million, and HSDT with 2.06 million. The top five holders account for 65%, while the median holdings among the rest are only 85,800 tokens.
These tokens were not bought with cash on hand. FWDI’s 8.5 million tokens came from $1.65 billion in equity financing; DFDV has a $300 million issuance quota, issuing shares while buying tokens, using staking earnings to pay dividends.
This strategy depends on the stock price holding up. When the stock price is higher than the value of the tokens held, issuing shares to buy SOL is cost-effective, increasing token holdings and tokens per share. If the stock price falls, issuing shares is like selling at a discount, and buying stops.
From October 2 to 8, none of the 48 holders, companies or governments, reported buying or selling. The last concentrated activity was in late September, when DFDV added 47,700 tokens in one week.
To find out if these companies are still buying, check issuance announcements and holdings disclosures weekly.