This is the classic late-cycle AI question finally hitting the tape: how much CapEx can you fund with debt + dilution before the market stops, giving you the benefit of the doubt?
Meta’s free cash flow flipping negative for the first time in over a decade + a new non-voting share class is the clearest signal yet.
The street is no longer just underwriting the AI story it’s underwriting the financing of the AI story.
The same dynamic hit the semis hard (SOX -6.7%).
加密巨鲸(空门宗主)
Nasdaq drops more than 2.6%
Yesterday, US tech stocks were pulled back by AI capital expenditures, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June. The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to close at 7663 points, while the Dow Jones was nearly flat, slightly up 0.02%. Small-cap stocks rose slightly, and most individual stocks actually closed higher, but the heavy weighting of tech dragged the index down. Meta fell about 7%, despite revenue and guidance beating expectations. The issue lies in free cash flow turning negative, marking the first quarterly net cash outflow in over a decade, while also announcing a new class of non-voting stock financing, with capital expenditures possibly reaching $145 billion. Credit risk soared to a record high. Tesla dropped about 2.5%, with good earnings and a reduction in 2026 spending, but higher spending on projects like Optimus in 2027-2028, with the market still focused on the cash burn. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 6.7%, with Nvidia, Micron, and AMD all following down. The market is trading on whether the AI story can continue to be supported by debt and dilution. SpaceX boosted sentiment the day before, but today, with lockup expirations and similar spending concerns, it also fell sharply. Oil prices jumped simultaneously, with Brent rising 4% to close near $113, hitting a 5-month high amid renewed Middle East attacks and supply concerns. Safe-haven funds flowed into bonds, with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping nearly 20 basis points to around 4.95%. Consumer staples rose over 3%, and utilities were also strong, with defensive sectors filling the gap left by tech. The Nasdaq has already given back a lot from its June highs, with the chip sector down about a quarter from its peak, but still far outperforming the broader market year-to-date. Yesterday was not a full collapse, but a redefinition of weighting
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