Wintermute:「四年周期」理论已不再适用,加密市场落后主流资产表现系资金尚未流入
市场整体背景依然强劲——从股市表现即可见证
只是流动性暂时还没流入加密领域
当前市场正在消化前期的强平冲击,但结构依然稳健:
杠杆已清理、波动受控、宏观仍然友好。
BTC依旧是锚定资产,ETF流入稳定、交易所供给紧张;
ETH及部分L1/L2项目也出现相对强势迹象。
值得注意的是:“四年周期”理论已不再适用:
过去驱动价格周期的矿工供给与减半逻辑
在成熟市场中影响力已微弱。
当下真正驱动价格的,是流动性。
宏观面仍然极为有利,降息进行中、QT结束、股市创高
而驱动上半年行情的三大引擎(ETF、稳定币、DAT)
目前只有稳定币仍在增长
接下来最值得关注的信号:
👉 ETF流入重启
👉 DAT交易回暖
这将是加密市场重新获得流动性、迎来补涨行情的前兆
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