好马配好鞍,再牛的模型如果没有好的数据一样没有办法做出好的策略。Arena目前应该只是基于MACD/RSI这些最基础的k线判断,但是未来随着金融和支付逐渐上链,围绕各种资产的可分析信息会越来越丰富且即时性很强,人很难基于这么多海量信息实时做决策,那个时候硅基交易员将会全面碾压碳基交易员 @MeetHubble
看着这张AI Arena竞技赛实况,说几句真相: 1)所谓Qwen、DeepSeek领先派(中方)和GPT5、Gemini倒数流(西方),中西方差距纯属随机性巧合,从AI实操概率上讲赢面都是50%,区别在于价值观导向策略激进度,即模型各自的风险偏好差异; 2)这些看起来很Cool的 AI大模型竞技行为,散户看起来新奇并为之振奋,但专业做AI看起来就是小孩过家家。因为基于Open Source通用模型能力表现并不真实,且距离实际应用场景偏差很远; 3)nof1通过可视化的PVP来吸引眼球,向市场传递AI交易能力,但这并非稀奇事。一些头部量化基金和做市商早就在做类似的尝试,但他们却不会来这种公开擂台表演。因为,很多真正牛逼的策略一旦曝光就会被套利掉。 4)现在远未到给这些AI模型高歌炫舞的时候。市场有一路高歌的牛市形态,有上蹿下跳的猴市形态,也有一路阴跌的萎靡熊市形态。短期看,某些模型的风险偏好正好适配了当前市场行情,不代表可以一直做常胜将军。真正的AI交易,能长期稳定盈利且策略得有壁垒才是硬道理。
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