5 predictions for the next decade The future is probabilistic so none of this is meant to be declarative -- just one way it could play out. That said, it is "easier" to forecast 10-year megatrends than to trade 10-minute candles. 1. Blow off top. US mkts have a blow off top never to be visited again for many years. See this chart of the decade by DoubleLine. Every region gets its “this time is different” decade -- Japan (industrial perfection, 1980s), Europe (euro integration, 2000s), EM (Asian Century, 2010s). Each peaked, then mean-reverted. The U.S. narrative now is American Exceptionalism (AI is deflationary, innovation, monopoly over capital markets). Same chart, new story. 2. TRILLIONS. Leverage, passive flows, and financial engineering unwind together creating a generational opportunity. Investors with cash on the sidelines get to buy stuff for prices that will be written about in history books. Governments and central banks print again -- but this time with inflation already embedded. 2008 was $700B, 2020 was $6T and whatever this next one will be some multiple of that. Monetary and fiscal policy blur into one, and we officially enter yield-curve control: higher inflation tolerated, yields capped, savers rekt. 3. Walls go up when the tide goes out. Capital repatriation, eroding rule of law, new tax regimes (global taxes, unrealized gains, exit taxes etc.) and residency weaponized. Governments turn inward and make it harder to move money and people. Mobility remains the ultimate privilege. 4. Value > Growth. Demographics, energy, and fiscal policy driven growth converge in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Nations that export code, energy, or manufacturing talent win. Western capital will follow -- reluctantly at first, then permanently. Tech will still have winners but it won't be the secular bull market it has been for the last 15y and the zirp madness is firmly behind us. Value and commodity supercycle. 5. Active > Passive. The passive era ends when liquidity is no longer free. With dispersion back, fundamentals and judgment start to matter again -- volatility is information. Price moves reveal real risk, solvency, and opportunity -- like it does in crypto. Index funds are optimized for inertia, not insight -- so the next bull market belongs to active founders and allocators who can move fast, hedge risk, and find edge in chaos. Price is truth. BONUS 6. Instant contracts replaces trust. Trust creates tolerable latency -- you wait because you believe the system will deliver. But in a low-confidence world, latency becomes a risk. The USD may stay strong in crisis, but weaker in trust. The new axis is instant settlement, not brand or reputation. Those who can settle obligations in real time --individuals, companies, and countries will dominate. eg., a company pays a supplier in USDT instantly wins against a company that has a 30 day window and pays via JPMorgan. - a lot can happen in 30 days - JPM relies on regulation and reputation to make you trust the payment will arrive -- but wires can be delayed, reviewed, or frozen. USDT has none of that, yet it settles instantly, globally, 24/7. Feel free to push back/add other megatrends you are seeing.

intentionally left out gold and btc. they are obvious bets and will go to infinity after the next big print. its going up forever laura