For the first time in months Saylor didn’t buy Bitcoin
MicroStrategy raised nothing and bought nothing
Something broke inside the machine that fueled every BTC rally
Here is what it means 👇🧵
I spent countless hours researching.
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MicroStrategy just filed a new 8K with the SEC
No new Bitcoin added
No cash raised through any of their programs
The machine that kept feeding BTC demand has stopped
Their model was simple
Sell stock or debt, buy Bitcoin, show unrealized profit, attract new investors
It worked for years because people believed it would never stop
Now the flow has frozen
Last quarter looked fine on paper
Over five billion raised and more than forty thousand BTC added
Last week there was nothing
Even with forty six billion left to issue no one wanted in
They now hold about six hundred forty thousand BTC worth seventy three billion
It cost them forty seven billion to build that stack
Average price just under seventy four thousand
If BTC falls to fifty thousand they face fifteen billion in paper losses
Their debt is heavy
Over eight billion in convertible notes
Most of it matures in 2028 right when the next cooling phase may hit
If they can’t roll it they will be forced to sell Bitcoin
Selling even a small amount breaks the story
The whole pitch was built on never selling
If they do it once confidence disappears and everything unravels
Preferred shares add more pressure
STRF STRC STRK STRD all require big payouts
One of them alone costs more than six hundred million a year
Hard to sustain if BTC stops climbing
The tax edge is gone too
The IRS just excluded unrealized crypto gains from CAMT
That means they pay more while earning nothing
Their accounting trick is losing power
Software income is tiny now
They have become a Bitcoin holding company
If BTC falls their earnings collapse instantly
Investors see it clearly and that is why there was no demand
If Bitcoin stays above eighty thousand they survive
If it goes under sixty five thousand the raises stop
At fifty thousand they start breaking trust and covenants
The market senses this fragility already
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin dies
But it does mean MicroStrategy has become a risk for the whole narrative
If they fall it will shake the belief system that supports corporate adoption
Only six percent of people in the world own crypto
Adoption is still early
But this silence from Saylor is not random
The bull run may continue but the cracks are starting to show
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