When the time comes, the world works together, and when it goes, heroes are not free. The on-chain market has quickly entered the controversial period of paid groups. Starting a paid group in a bull market is about capturing liquidity beta, while starting one in a bear market is about inviting criticism. The so-called on-chain bull market may only last for less than three months between November 2024 and January 2025. During that time, we saw the cult meme peak after a significant rise in November. Just when everyone thought the meme bull market was coming, the AI meta gradually replaced the traditional cult, becoming the new darling of capital. The essence of the AI meta is the establishment of a new asset speculation theme, which, despite having a different superficial evaluation system, fundamentally remains attention + underlying logic. $LAUNCHCOIN inherits this logic and may be the most capable of inheriting the application meta within the Solana ecosystem (unless Virtual returns to Solana again). The ecosystem fluctuates due to the exhaustion of liquidity itself, yet it still presents the most likely opportunities for innovation. Is ETH, Base, BNB easier than Solana? Not really. Essentially, liquidity rotates across the entire chain, with ecosystems rising and falling in waves. The memes and applications of ETH and Base that I bought, overall, have also lost more than they gained. If Solana is full of conspiracies and one plays EVM, then EVM is even worse: only conspiracies can be played. The dominance of conspiracies reflects the scarcity of liquidity: retail funds cannot manifest consensus, and thus the price performance of conspiracy groups becomes a more important factor of attention. This is the "failure of narrative dynamics." When "who bought" is much more important than "what it is," memes become alienated. When the voices mocking the narrative emerge, and digging into conspiracy addresses becomes mainstream, it means one should participate in the market with caution. MOODENG-LABUBU-THERANOS has similar addresses behind it. FARTCOIN-HOUSE-NEET-XBT-BALL also has similar addresses behind it. These two groups have a strong ability to choose narratives, and the themes they select are usually quite interesting. But the interesting thing about memes is that, in the presence of sufficient liquidity, a good narrative will self-validate its value. When this is lost, memes become complete manipulation and conspiracy reasoning, making the game both difficult and uninteresting. For crypto players, it is essential to manage positions well to prevent continuously increasing risk exposure during an uptrend. No one knows if this is the beginning of a major upward wave or a rebound before the bear market arrives. In prosperity, enjoy the game; in adversity, maintain physical and mental health. Life is a grander game; remain calm, patient, and let us encourage each other.
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