ive been worried my "find good new thing aka exchanges" edge was deteriorating in real time
but were still comparing working exchanges to vaporware so there is still some juice left in this meta
i hate talking explicitly about price action but i don’t see why lighter won’t trace the double zero chart post initial pump
i understand the market opportunity of a DEX with zero fees and grabbing retail traders, i think good product + team etc, but good product != good token
seems that revenue numbers are obfuscated at the moment and the narrative tailwind is that the eth community will bid a L2 + privacy + hyperliquid beta
i think it competes for an exhausted pool of buyers that bought optimism, arbitrum, starknet, so on and so forth and anyone suggesting aster fdv as a comp is a fool
sure fee generation -> buybacks, im sure there will be some amount of burn
you’re still looking at sizable unlocks, no early allocation to public markets, and what seems to be a fairly small community of points farmers who imo are psyoping to pump otc price, as the past few weeks have shown the liquid market has gotten wise with these types of tokens and exhausted by their overvaluations
token can be underpinned by its fundamentals (im sure there will be growth multiples thrown on revenue numbers when they finally come out) but there’s not enough liquid funds willing to baghold someone else’s 100x and it’s extremely difficult to create a beloved token / people have to like you to buy your token
i hope it does well (wagmi) and i bet that lighter opens above $2b fdv with a smaller position on above $4b fdv but i dont see it holding its price for an extended period of time
the case made that its an acquisition target is somewhat reasonable, but i see this as minimum nine months in the future so you can just take a position after price drops
few months of sustained organic retail traction needed given high density of mercenary airdrop farmers before confidence established, even then the token might not trade well
my read is up and then down

as long as people keep confusing bad projects
and good exchanges
i will continue to do well
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