polymarket challenge update hereâs where weâre at: Older plays: Linea FDV > $3B â No won and claimed for 8% gain. Sky USDH ticker â No basically won, waiting for payout. managed to get some ethena no shares at 99.9c (they officially withdrawn), parked my remaining liq there while i'm researching better plays. Monad airdrop before Oct 31 â Yes added a bit more at same price. also started hedging with âyesâ on december airdrop - about 10% of port on an open order. doing it mostly to put liq to work while waiting for some better plays New setups: 1. BTC > $103k in September? â No btc hasnât touched 103k since june. thereâs heavy support around 105k thatâs been holding for months. i donât think we break it this month, especially with rate cuts coming risk/reward looks clean here. 2. Adams drops out by Sept 15? â No this one was too clean to pass up. ballot certification locked yesterday - which means even if he quits, his name stays on the ballot. heâs been saying heâll...
The goal with this challenge isnât to teach you how to gamble. Instead, I want you to think about Polymarket as a trading platform. Each market is a trade setup. So hereâs my thinking behind the current ones: 1. Will Sky win the USDH ticker? â No Iâm deep in the Hyperliquid ecosystem, so Iâve followed this whole USDH saga closely. From the start, only 3 players had a real shot: Native, Paxos, and Ethena. Sky (and the rest) were good proposals, but theyâre not getting majority votes. Simple as that. I thought about going long Native + Paxos... but on the off chance they merge forces, neither would technically win (per rules), and that adds unnecessary risk to the bet. So shorting Sky at 3% odds is a clean play. Free small return in 4 days max. 2. Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch? â No I wanted to buy no shares closer to when Linea was trading around $3B, but had internet issues. Still caught 8% return in under a day. Hereâs why: Most new tokens trade below pre-...
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