Let me talk about a few characteristics of Sui's market operations, and walrus might also follow this approach. I suggest you learn about it in advance.
1. They like to pump the price around the unlocking time. Sui often has market movements around the beginning of each month when unlocking occurs; you can go back and check the K-line for confirmation.
2. Once it starts, it happens very quickly, and there are almost no comfortable entry points, along with a duration of paid rates.
3. There are also various high-yield mining activities happening simultaneously on the chain, with TVL growing rapidly, which is a way to reasonably multiply your chips. The difference in token quantity between participating and not participating can be 10% to 20%.
4. There will be a good price increase accompanying positive news, with the news and token price moving in sync; many projects fail to achieve even this.
5. When the trend is upward, the pullbacks are minimal. It often moves against the market trend; I used to call Sui's market the "reverse child." It tends to rise when the market is falling or consolidating, which can attract market attention and funds.
6. It washes out the weak hands and leaves profits for the believers. Participate more in the ecosystem to gain more chips.
The next betting opportunity for Sui is Walrus, which has many similarities with early Sui.
➤ First, let's talk about the funding and operation aspects.
1. Grayscale has established trusts for Walrus and DEEP, completing the whole package, which is a clear signal for institutional entry.
2. Last year, when Sui was included in the trust, it had just launched. On August 7, 2024, the Sui trust was introduced at a price of $0.8, which was the average cost for most.
Walrus and Sui share many similarities; after the first wave, Sui reached $2 before returning to $0.6-$0.8, while Walrus doubled from its launch to a peak price of $0.77. During this time, it consolidated around $0.4, with a low of $0.35.
3. The institutional financing cost for Walrus is $0.4, which will only start unlocking on March 27, 2026. The current price of $0.4-$0.45 is also the average cost for most, yielding little profit. The prolonged consolidation can be seen as a healthy process of chip turnover and accumulation. The market is clearing out short-term speculators and profit-takers from airdrops, and it could start at any time.
4. Unlike other malicious market makers, Sui's initial chips were all purchased from the secondary market, including Sui, DEEP, and WAL, and early investors have not unlocked their holdings.
➤ Changes in the fundamentals of the Walrus project
1. Walrus has recently resumed heavy promotion, with frequent activities, including being listed on Kaito and collaborating with the large web2 company Onefootball (with 200 million global fans).
2. In May, SuiBasecamp updated its narrative, stating that Sui is a future-oriented Web3 full-stack infrastructure with built-in liquidity (DeepBook), verifiable storage (Walrus), secure access (SEAL), high-performance networking (SCION), and off-chain computing (Nautilus). Walrus is the most important part of this.
3. The timing of Grayscale's trust launch is highly similar to last year's Sui peak.
4. The mining incentives for Walrus have significantly increased, with an on-chain annualized rate of 40%, leading to a large influx of funds into WAL.
5. The second airdrop is on the way (requiring WAL staking), acting as a market catalyst.
➤ My trading strategy
Entry and exit strategy: buy spot at $0.4-$0.46, with a grid set between $0.37-$0.8. The liquidation price is controlled at $0.34. All spot WAL is mined on-chain, with part of it also being market-making based on the grid setting range.
If the market ends up falling, I will exit at $0.4, as it may indicate a misjudgment, and I will look for new entry opportunities.
Will Walrus become the next betting opportunity for Sui? I believe the market will soon provide an answer.
#WAL #SUI
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