Breaking news: #NVDA #AMD announced that they will pay 15% of the revenue from selling chips to China to the United States in exchange for relaxed export restrictions to China. This is seen as a "trade agreement like never before" in U.S. history; rather than an agreement, it is more like a "protection fee." This has also caused some concern for the two companies, with their stock prices dropping in pre-market trading, and it has put pressure on their peers in the tech sector. In the future, if they want to attempt to produce high-end products for the Chinese market, it seems that the "protection fee" will be unavoidable.
Looking at the pre-market, the global market shows a clear divergence today. In the afternoon, due to Zelensky's "hardline" stance on territory, the risk market remains cautious. However, in the evening, Wall Street actively boosted U.S. stocks, while the Fed's mouthpiece released expectations of a "moderate" rise in inflation, ensuring that the probability of a rate cut in September remains above 80%, keeping U.S. stocks on the rise. Nevertheless, although the current expectations are optimistic, the market will still maintain relative caution in the face of tomorrow's key inflation data. Currently, there are still several key issues in the global market that need close attention: 1. Before August 12, will Trump confirm the 90-day extension of tariffs on China and formally sign the executive order? Otherwise, the U.S.-China tariffs will revert to the high-value trade war model before August 12. 2. Regarding the 39% tariff issue on gold that occurred last week, will the White House provide a prompt explanation this week? 3. Will Zelensky's hardline stance significantly weaken the optimistic expectations for the U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska this Friday? Among these three points, the impact of the 90-day suspension of U.S.-China tariffs is the most significant.
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