In hindsight I had everything I needed right in this chart. Rejected off supply area and underside of the trendline. Very clean.
But I started seeing it get a couple closes over 1h trend, saw it above the downtrend line, conviction in my short hedges started to disappear, and I closed out.
Hard for me to short, I'm almost always bullish crypto on any timeframe above like 1mo. Just a pure misplay from me here, way too easy for me to lose conviction on shorts.
So what's my lesson here?
As always, more patience would have been useful. Patience for it to start confirming more. Basically when I closed out it was 50/50. Had supply area and uptrend bearish and 1h and downtrend acting bullish. Just waiting a bit longer to close out above supply/trendline would have been a minimal drawdown on my shorts vs closing out below them. Not waiting for that extra 1% move up cost me missing a 5% move down.
Another thing that would have helped me psychologically was reminding myself more that they were short hedges, not pure short exposure. If I was wrong on my shorts, it would have just meant not making money rather than losing money.
Focusing on that would have helped me hold.
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