Using market share and trading volume to estimate Launchpad is actually not wrong, but you can't just look at this part. Although Believe has only a 4.5% market share within 24 hours, its market value should be more than that.
I still prefer to use milk as an example:
Whole milk: a stable commodity for household consumption, raw material processing, etc.
Yogurt: a high-margin growth product, layered with functional narratives, meal replacements, probiotics, etc.
Pump fun is like whole milk; Pump fun provides the most basic token issuance service, with a low threshold, and a large number of new tokens are issued every minute, with a short shelf life. The lifecycle of most memes issued is only a few hours.
On the other hand, Believe @believeapp is like yogurt. Yogurt's sales cannot compare to whole milk, but it has more product-level narratives, higher gross margins, and repeat purchases. The lifecycle of ecological projects is also significantly longer than that of meme projects.
If Pump fun is an opportunistic narrative, its story is about fair launches, lottery culture, getting rich overnight, and opportunities in chaos. Its valuation depends on how many people in the market believe in and are willing to participate in this gold rush.
Then Believe is an innovative narrative. Its story is about the developer economy, permissionless financing, disrupting VCs, and app stores. Its valuation depends on how many people in the market believe that this new paradigm, ICM, can truly incubate valuable applications.
The valuation of a Launchpad cannot only look at ecological transaction volume, just as a dairy company cannot only look at sales. It also needs to consider:
1) Whether the platform token captures the value of the Launchpad
2) Whether the narrative can support a premium
3) The depth of the moat and the sustainability of the ecosystem
So moving forward, Believe will only focus on two points:
1) When will #Launchcoin empower, and when will Believe @pasternak have the flywheel?
2) Can the ecological fund that Believe just invested in bring interesting projects and attract more quality developers?
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