“#Bitcoin has topped.”🚨 That’s what people say every time price slows down. But here’s the reality: Not one major market top indicator has triggered. I went through all the TOP indicators. Here’s what each of them says 🧵👇

1⃣ AHR999 Index This measures how far Bitcoin’s price is from its long-term “fair value,” based on a combo of the 200-day MA and a DCA model. The lower the number, the more undervalued $BTC is. When it goes above 4, historically that’s a danger zone (2013/2017/2021). • Current: 1.03 • Top zone: 4+ • Status: Nowhere near top

2⃣ Pi Cycle Top Uses a crossover between two moving averages: • 111-day MA • 2× 350-day MA Every time they crossed in the past → cycle top was in (to the day in 2013 & 2017). • Current $BTC Price: $107k • Estimated crossover at: $165K+ • Status: Still far from triggering

3⃣ Puell Multiple This shows how much revenue #Bitcoin miners are making vs. their 365-day average. If it gets too high, it means miners are making huge profits and might start selling. • Current: 1.31 • Historical top zone: >2.2 • Status: Still in safe zone Tops often come when miners start exiting in profit. That’s not happening yet.

4⃣ MVRV Z-Score Compares #BTC’s current market cap to the average cost basis of all coins (realized cap), normalized with standard deviation. It’s a top-tier metric for spotting overvaluation. • Current Z-Score: 2.41 • Historical top zone: ≥5 • Status: Mid-range We’re not in euphoria. Still in accumulation or mid-cycle territory.

5⃣ Reserve Risk It compares #BTC’s price to the confidence level of long-term holders (HODLers). Higher values = price is too high relative to the conviction holding it up. • Current: 0.0025 • Top risk zone: ≥0.005 • Status: HODLers still confident No signs of long-term holders losing belief.

6⃣ Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) It measures unrealized gains across all wallets. At market tops, most people are deep in profit and ready to dump. • Current: 55.29% • Top signal: ≥70–75% • Status: Not overheated

7⃣ RHODL Ratio It tracks the balance between recently moved coins (young) and older untouched ones. High values = lots of fresh buyers = FOMO = possible top. • Current: 2805 • Danger zone: 10,000+ • Status: Still safe

8⃣ Bitcoin Macro Oscillator It is a combo of multiple high-signal metrics: MVRV, VWAP, CVDD, Sharpe, etc. Gives a single score for macro trend conditions. • Current: 0.96 • Top signal: ≥1.4 • Status: Still neutral

9⃣ Long-Term Holder Supply It tells us how much $BTC is held by wallets that haven’t moved in over 155 days. When this drops fast, it means long-term holders are selling = top vibes. • Current supply: 15.87M BTC • Status: Still strong Long-term holders are not exiting yet. That’s bullish

🔟 Short-Term Holder % Supply It shows what % of supply is held by recent buyers. • Current: 20.17% • Top indicator zone: ≥30% • Status: Low

1⃣1⃣ Rainbow Chart A long-term log chart with color bands showing different valuation levels. • Current zone: Green (“Buy/Accumulate”) • Top zone: Red (“Sell/Seriously”) • Status: Far from danger

1⃣2⃣ Mayer Multiple Price ÷ 200-day moving average. High multiples = overheated market. • Current: 1.11 • Top level: 2.2+ • Status: Very comfortable

1⃣3⃣ 2-Year MA Multiplier Price compared to its 2-year moving average. Used by OGs for macro tops and bottoms. • $BTC now: $107,000 • Top zone: $315,000+ • Status: Massive room to run

1⃣4⃣ Altseason Index When altcoins start outperforming #BTC heavily, it usually comes right before a market-wide top. • Current: 14 • Altseason = 75+ • Status: Too early Alt euphoria hasn’t even started.

1⃣5⃣ MVRV Ratio (non-Z score) A raw version of MVRV. Tends to spike before major corrections. • Current: 2.24 • Top zone: ≥3 • Status: Neutral

What are these top indicators showing? ✅ 0 are flashing red ✅ Long-term holders aren’t selling ✅ Institutions are still buying ✅ No euphoria or mania yet This is not the top.

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