This chart explains why sentiment is so bad. It's $TOTAL.3 ex stablecoins, giving us a clear measurement of altcoin performance. It's up a lot from the '22 lows, but these wild swings & stagnant recent performance is why investors feel so discouraged. These are the facts: • It's trading at the same level as March 2024. • It's down -34% from the December 2024 highs. • It's up +29.4% YoY, while Bitcoin is up +77.6% YoY. More volatility and lower performance, by definition, is the opposite of what we're trying to hold as investors. Not only does it suck from a relative performance standpoint, presenting a huge opportunity cost, but it also drains your mental capital. In my opinion, mental capital isn't talked about enough. Talk to the best traders in the world and they'll tell you that their success is much more dependent on their mindset, ability to withstand pressure, perseverance, and mental edge, rather than their buy/sell timing or stop loss placement. It's simple... Do you want to be: • Stressed and generate X% returns? • Relaxed and generate (X+Y)% returns? I think 99.9% of investors would choose the latter, with the remaining 0.1% just not understanding this concept. Unfortunately, the picture gets even worse for $OTHERS, which is total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 coins by market cap. OTHERS is down -48.2% from the Dec.'24 highs. OTHERS is is down -1.3% YoY (while BTC is up +77.6%). Either way, both $OTHERS and (TOTAL.3 - USDT - USDC) haven't made new all-time highs, in an environment where Bitcoin's market cap is currently up +60.3% from its prior cycle highs. This has been THE pain trade: long alts and underallocated to Bitcoin. So now you have a choice as an investor. You can recognize the mistake. You can be honest about what your goals are. You can reflect on the emotional turmoil you've endured. You can adapt, recognizing that there is no shame in being wrong as an investor... but staying wrong for the sake of preserving your ego is the worst decision you can make.
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