Original title: "After 7 years of long-distance running, the policy finally leads the way, and Circle is only one foot away from going public"

Original author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

Compliant stablecoin giant Circle may be the first beneficiary of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill in the United States. On May 27, Circle disclosed the latest progress of its NYSE IPO listing application, Circle will issue 24 million Class A shares, of which 9.6 million shares will be issued by the company and 14.4 million shares will be sold by existing shareholders, with an expected pricing range of $24 to $26 per share, Circle could raise nearly $250 million, while shareholders who sell their shares may receive nearly $375 million for their shares.

Circle disclosed a target valuation of $6.71 billion, higher than its previous estimate of $4 billion to $5 billion. While Circle's IPO is going well, the final outcome is still uncertain, and Circle will remain under SEC inquiries in the next 3-5 months. At the same time, the recognition of crypto in the mainstream capital market in the United States has risen, but the stock prices of U.S. stock companies on the verge of delisting have risen through backdoor coins, and the mainstream capital market in the United States urgently needs more truly high-quality "crypto stocks" ......

From the beginning, Circle's road to listing resembles a large-scale immortal cultivation novel, where the protagonist goes through 7 years of hardships and ups and downs, and finally soars.

idea of an IPO was born, and

Circle's IPO idea was first revealed in 2018, when Circle launched the stablecoin USDC and acquired crypto exchange Poloniex. In the same year, Circle received $110 million in funding from Bitmain, IDG Capital, Breyer Capital, and others, valuing it at $3 billion. However, in 2019, the crypto market suddenly took everyone off guard, with Circle's valuation plummeting 75% to $750 million, and it was forced to sell Poloniex to Justin Sun. When the crisis came, Circle's IPO plan was also in vain.

After two years of compliance exploration and business development, USDC has become the second most influential stablecoin product in the market after USDT, so Circle's IPO listing plan has successfully surfaced this time. On July 8, 2021, Circle announced that it would go public through Concord Acquisition Corp, a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) under the symbol "CRCL", valuing Circle at $4.5 billion. Although the crypto market is picking up at this time, the regulatory hostility towards crypto has not subsided, and Circle wants to circumvent traditional IPOs and strict regulatory scrutiny of crypto through backdoor listings.

However, Circle's IPO plan has been aborted again. In July 2021, Circle claimed to have received a subpoena from the SEC enforcement authorities in the United States, requiring Circle to prove that USDC is not a security. After a lengthy series of regulatory disputes and transaction delays, in December 2022 Circle announced the termination of its SPAC merger listing plan.

However, the failure and the SEC's continued "regulatory iron fist" have not deterred Circle, with Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire saying after the plan failed that "Circle remains committed to becoming a public company for the long term." In June 2023, Circle is again looking for in-house counsel who can "assist with the potential listing process".

Perhaps having learned

the lesson of a second failure, Circle chose a more traditional path and secretly filed its IPO application in January of the same year, without revealing the number of shares it planned to sell or the proposed price range for a new IPO application. Circle's IPO application has been extremely low-key, and since it was exposed by the media, the company has refused to comment on any of Circle's contacts with the SEC or other regulators, and has instead increased the approval rate of the IPO by strengthening staffing and stabilizing its financial position.

After a long wait, on April 2, 2025, Circle again filed an S-1 filing with the SEC to list on the NYSE under the symbol "CRCL", although the IPO pricing range has not yet been announced. According to subsequent market news, Circle is also still postponing its IPO. On May 20, Circle said it was still moving forward with an IPO plan with a target valuation of at least $5 billion, and had rejected takeover requests from Coinbase and Ripple.

Finally, on May 28, 2025, Circle updated its IPO listing details and Circle will issue 24 million Class A shares, of which 9.6 million will be issued by the company and 14.4 million will be sold by existing shareholders, with an expected pricing range of $24 to $26 per share. According to a Reuters report, Circle has a target valuation of $6.71 billion. While the update doesn't specify when the IPO will be listed, Cathie Wood's ARK investment firm has already signaled interest in buying $150 million worth of Circle shares in the IPO.

Does this update mean that Circle's listing is a foregone conclusion?

Over the years, Circle has made many compliance requirements to fulfill its listing aspirations, such as a more transparent and open audit mechanism, obtaining a New York State Virtual Currency Business License (BitLicense), issuing the Euro stablecoin EUROC, and complying with MiCA requirements. So is the outcome of this application for IPO listing already in stone? While Circle has formally filed its IPO application, there are several necessary processes before it can be officially listed on the NYSE:

SEC review and registration statement to take effect

Circle's submission of the application does not mean that it has become effective, and Circle also noted in its latest Form S-1 filing that "the offering is subject to market conditions and there can be no assurance as to when or whether the offering will be completed." In addition, before listing, the SEC needs to conduct a comment letter and confirm that there are no material objections to its registration statement before it can be "effective." Inquiries usually take one to two rounds and take 3 to 5 months to complete.

roadshow pricing and over-allotment option

are approved by the SEC, the underwriting syndicate of Circle shares (including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, etc.) will conduct a short-term roadshow to gather the needs of institutional investors and determine the final issue price. Circle also granted the underwriters an option to over-allot up to 3.6 million shares over a 30-day period.

CRCL shares will be listed on the NYSE only on the day after pricing is completed (usually 1 trading day after the fixing date). At this point, Circle's IPO can be regarded as truly landed.

To sum up, submitting an IPO application is only a "stepping stone", and so far Circle's IPO success cannot be said to be a foregone conclusion. However, as far as the market and regulatory environment are concerned, as long as the Fed's policy is stable, the regulation continues to be friendly to the crypto industry, and there are no violent market fluctuations or black swan events during the SEC inquiry of Circle in the next few weeks, the probability of Circle's listing success can reach more than 80%.

,

it will also be a milestone for the entire crypto market, and it will also deepen the recognition of the crypto industry by the mainstream asset market. If Circle is successfully listed, it will also encourage other crypto companies to actively apply for IPOs. Previously, there were a number of crypto companies looking forward to going public:

· Kraken: Kraken has been eager to follow suit since Coinbase's successful IPO in 2021 and has suffered multiple failures, and according to Bloomberg, it is actively preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in the first quarter of 2026.

· Gemini: Crypto exchange Gemini hinted at an IPO back in 2021, and there are even rumors that it has secretly submitted an IPO application, is working with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, and could go public as early as 2025;

· Bullish: Crypto exchange Bullish also intended to go public via SPAC in 2021, but ultimately plans were shelved.

· BitGo: U.S.-based crypto custodian BitGo is also considering an IPO as early as the second half of 2025.

......

With the passage of the stablecoin bill, the Trump Organization continues to release positive effects on the crypto market, and the mainstream capital market in the United States is also being incentivized to invest in the crypto industry, "The U.S. stock market is willing to pay more than $2 for $1 of crypto assets", and the madness of the mainstream capital market for the crypto industry has gradually been revealed. However, it is undeniable that in the mainstream capital markets of the United States, investors are still exposed to a limited number of crypto categories, so they can only invest in some crypto-related stocks, such as companies that are actively building crypto reserves.

However, it also provides an opportunity for junk US stocks on the verge of delisting to buy and hold a small amount of crypto assets to boost their stock prices and increase their valuations (related reading: Bloomberg Chief Financial Writer: The Underlying Logic of US Listed Companies' Crazy Crypto Buying). But the fundamentals of these companies have not changed, there is only one strategy in the world, and when this trick is finally seen by the mainstream capital market, the real crypto industry may also be hurt. It is urgent to let more truly high-quality "crypto stocks" enter the mainstream capital market in the United States.

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