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taishiro
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The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
#Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = nyní úzké hrdlo paměti, ne GPU
Trh HBM 38 mld. $→58 mld. $ +52 % 26E, 85 mld. $ 27E. SK = 62 % podíl na HBM, *∼70 % NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs odhad 50 %. 16 vrstev = 576GB/vrstva vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Proč býčí: zásoby <10 dní (poprvé vůbec). Pláty 150-200k/měsíc 3-4x Micron, 50 % → HBM4 = DDR5 stlačené → Q4 DRAM +10-15 % NAND +15-20 %. JPM vidí 20 %
*Rizika:* Samsung 8,7 mld. $ HBM Q3 > SK 7,6 mld. $ poprvé*
*OKX hra: Long HBM s pákou, short PC DDR.*
Zřeknutí se odpovědnosti: Obsah v síti OKX Orbit je poskytován pouze pro informační účely. Další informace
