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#FOMCRateCallThisWeek A Fed hike is almost fully priced. That makes the surprise more interesting 👀 86 of 101 economists expect 25bps, while markets put the odds near 90%. With PPI at 5.4% YoY and CPI up 0.4% MoM, the Fed has cover to move. What caught my attention is the asymmetry. A hike may barely surprise markets. A hold could force the Fed to explain why inflation isn't translating into tighter policy, and trigger the bigger move across yields, gold and BTC.