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Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek