Lots of chatter on X around token vesting.
We’ve seen a lot tokens launch with near full unlocks over the last couple years especially from launchpads like pump, virtuals, clanker, etc.
Very very few of those tokens had any staying power.
For more serious projects that raised capital from VC, I think having investors fully unlocked on day 1 had some terrible outcomes in the ICO era of 2017/18. This created some perverse incentives that attracted VCs to act more like arbitrage traders instead of VCs with 5-10yr time horizons.
Clear vesting schedules and unlocks allow for the market to develop, attract liquidity and mature. Smart investors or traders want a higher float and clear understanding of unlocks or vesting. If all the tokens are unlocked then there is better true price discovery but it messes up incentives, especially if the team themselves are suddenly rich but they still need to work to build and improve the product or network that’s associated with the token.
Most tokens do not have demand which is the main issue. The market lacks liquidity for 99% of all tokens.
Tokens are still too obscure and every one is different without any shared rules, norms or structures.
There’s just not much demand for longer tail tokens and that’s how it’s going to be until we get better quality tokens and projects.
Tokens are an incredibly powerful tool. How they’re structured and communicated to potential users, investors and traders is extremely important. Need better norms or standards around that.
This is ahistorical nonsense.
When I first started investing in crypto in 2017, the norm was no vesting for anyone. For investors, founders, employees, all tokens circulated immediately.
This norm was changed after the 2018 ICO collapse because it was led to so much bad behavior and short-terism. Having teams immediately dump their tokens and have no incentive to continue on building, attracting investors who didn't actually believe in the long-term prospects of the token, all of that led to broken capital markets and warped incentives.
There are still projects that have extremely short lockups, or sometimes even no lockups. They're almost always complete scams.
I remember in 2017 I was being recruited to a then-prominent token startup. They had no vesting on the token grants for employees. I asked: Won't that make employees race to dump? What's going to actually incentivize the team to hold onto their tokens?
Their answer, straight-faced: we don't need to force you to hold. Because only an idiot would dump the tokens of this project. Dumping is its own punishment.
(The project collapsed in 2018, and I heard the team made millions.)
Vesting is a really old idea in startups. Startups everywhere do it. It's not a crypto thing. It forces long-term alignment and discourages quick flips.
Solana may have had an atypically short lockup (one wonders if this was because of market conditions, investor leverage?). But later, when they had the leverage, they forced lockups on LIQUID sales. How do you think the FTX estate ended up with so much MULTI-YEAR locked SOL?
There's also an inductive argument here. Everyone realizes a 99-year lockup on someone is great—that's basically removing those tokens from circulation. A 98-year lockup is slightly less good, but still good. Same with 97, 96, 95-->all the way to 1 year lockups. There is no kink in this function that somehow magically at 1 year lockup 4 year vest, 0 lockup is somehow better. Lockups are good all the way down.
So no, unlocking all tokens immediately is a bad idea. There's a trope out there that employees, VCs are fucking over retail on these token launches. Today, that's mostly BS, because token launches do well or poorly well before the 1-year cliff (barring a few unscrupulous teams that break lockups). But if employees and VCs *can* immediately dump on retail, on every launch, do you not see how much worse that is?
If IPO markets can handle employee and investor lockups, tokens should be able to handle them as well. All IPOs are gigantic ownership turnover events; as someone else put it (can't find the tweet), IPO bankers don't fixate on stopping sellers—that's a loser's mentality. They focus on finding buyers. If the buyers don't show up, then the asset should rightly take the blame, not the vesting schedules.
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