update on market May 1~ now 1/ GDP print came in much weaker than expected. The market had already priced in a slowdown, but this was worse. Initial reaction: sell-off across risk assets (myself included expected broader pullback). But the reversal came in quick. Why? 2/ It all comes down to one thing: rate cut expectations. Lower GDP = slowing economy → Fed has more reason to go dovish. The market priced in that possibility fast. Hence the rebound in S&P, Nasdaq, and yes, crypto. 3/ We’re in the “bad news = good news” phase. 🟢 Weak data → rate cut hopes → liquidity optimism → rally 🔴 But if CPI comes in hot, this flips quickly. Inflation returning would kill the momentum. 4/ S&P is likely to stay range-bound in the short term. 5.5k – 5.8k is the key box. If we break above 5.8k + get a clear rate cut roadmap = we could risk-on hard. Otherwise, I expect more chop. 5/ BTC is mirroring equities tightly. With May seasonality + lower liquidity, wouldn’t be surprised to see dip toward 91k. Also: Golden Week means quieter markets Headlines could move the market easily in this thin environment 6/ We’re not yet in a V-shape recovery mode. Macro has already bounced quite a bit. S&P has recovered from the lows fast, but pushing higher from here needs new catalysts. Still watching for downside to 5.4~5k if sentiment slips. 7/ What could trigger that next big move? It would need to be a real macro shock or a strong pivot from the Fed. Example: Fed says "We’ll do anything to support growth" That would be an ultra bullish trigger — but we’re not there yet. Let’s go over the alt setup 8/ Strategy: We’re still in a selective alt environment. Stay short-term. Look for high-interest names, take profits on rips. Spread trades can also help reduce risk. Here’s my current watchlist, ranked by narrative & setup strength: 9/ AI Narrative Alts 🔹 TURBO — Clean chart, listed on Revolut, started its move on the 2-year anniversary (spot buying was visible) 🔹 AVAAI — Only visual AI agent aligned with a16z AI thesis. Broke 3-month range. 🔹 VIRTUAL — Clear uptrend after new staking mechanics. Still researching full ecosystem. 10/ Tier 2: Memes with Angle 🐧 PENGU — Part of the abstract ecosystem, overlaps slightly with AVAAI narrative. Listed on Robinhood. Never pumped. Feels primed. FART / POPCAT — Older memes, but could rotate again. 11/ Final thought: This market is all about navigating chop, not max conviction trending. Until macro stabilizes, stay nimble, stay selective, and size down.