#PPIandCPIWatch

$BTC is back at the $78,000 level. PPI data is coming today, and CPI data will be released tomorrow. Any sign of inflation heating up could push Bitcoin below the 50W EMA. And if inflation shows more signs of cooling, we could finally get a weekly close above the 50 MA.

#SeptHike60Odds A September Fed hike is becoming the market's base case 👀 Odds are near 60% after 162K payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, while some policymakers argue rates still aren't restrictive enough. What caught my attention is what's keeping inflation alive: energy shocks and the AI boom itself. More data centers mean more demand for power, chips and infrastructure. AI may boost productivity long term, but right now it could also make the Fed's inflation fight harder.

Bitcoin Is Entering the Most Important Week of September Bitcoin is back near $80K, but the next move may have less to do with crypto and more to do with the Federal Reserve. The August jobs report changed the setup. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs, far above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Markets responded by increasing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to roughly 59%. Treasury yields moved higher and $BTC slipped below $80K. That makes this week extremely important. The next major test is U.S. inflation. CPI arrives on September 11, followed by the FOMC meeting on September 15–16. The market is now trying to answer one question: Will inflation give the Fed enough reason to tighten, or will softer price pressure allow policymakers to stay on hold? My radar: $BTC — Can it reclaim $80K and eventually challenge the recent $82K area? $ETH — Does Ethereum outperform if rate expectations ease? $SOL — Still one of the higher-beta majors if liquidity conditions improve. $XRP — Institutional demand remains important, but macro liquidity still matters. $BNB $SUI $APT $AVAX — Watch whether higher-beta L1s continue attracting capital. $LINK $ONDO — Infrastructure and RWA narratives could benefit if institutional liquidity expands. $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $CRV — DeFi remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity and risk appetite. $TAO $RENDER $FET — Higher-beta sectors will likely react strongly to any macro shift. $ARB $OP — L2s need broader risk appetite to regain momentum. The interesting part is that institutional demand has not disappeared. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $731M on September 3, their strongest single-day inflow since January. So the market is facing a conflict: Strong ETF demand on one side. Tighter rate expectations on the other. That is why I am watching macro before chasing individual altcoins. If CPI comes in softer than expected, the current rate narrative could reverse quickly. #BTCGoldCorr+0.50 #HammackBacksHike #ZECRanks10thByMarketCap

The probability of a rate hike has risen to 60%, U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, yet BTC still holds firm between $79,000 and $80,000. At 9:20 AM on Tuesday, OKX data shows BTC at $79,330.2, down 0.67% in 24 hours. The market expects about a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, with 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.37% and 5.24%, respectively. #ZECBreaksIntoTop10 #SamsungHynix10DaySupply #OracleAdobeEarnings

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack leaning toward tighter policy caught my attention because the market has spent so much time debating when rates might come down. A Fed official still seeing a case for higher rates is a reminder that the inflation fight may not be completely finished. Personally, I think the important part isn’t whether one policymaker wants a hike. It’s whether more Fed officials start moving in the same direction. If inflation stays sticky while the labor market remains relatively resilient, the argument for keeping policy tight becomes harder for markets to ignore. That’s why I’m watching Treasury yields and rate expectations closely. Markets can price in easier policy very quickly, but those expectations can reverse just as fast when the data or the Fed’s tone changes. #HammackBacksHike $BTC

Fed officials are turning more hawkish, with September rate-hike odds rising to 58.6%. Strong payrolls have shifted expectations, while softer wage growth keeps the outlook uncertain. September CPI is now the key catalyst: • Soft CPI → BTC could target $80K–$82K • Hot CPI → BTC risks $75K or lower CPI could determine the Fed’s next move. #BTCGoldCorr+0.50 #HammackBacksHike #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC

🚨 The Fed may be running out of excuses. One Fed official is now openly arguing that rates need to go higher because current policy still isn’t doing enough to bring inflation down. Then nonfarm payrolls came in at 162K, and suddenly the odds of a September hike jumped to 58.6%. In other words, the market may already be doing the Fed’s job for it. But here’s where it gets interesting… #DailyOrbit

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST POSTED THIS!! “We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World” $TRUMP

yday’s 6B was too close to neutral to meaningfully move mkts w so much noise: oil $100 and looming data that is optically tilting what is framed as a 50/50 decision being cautious is the natural slant here i have no edge & really, no one does, in forecasting whether prints will be cold, flat or hot. but amongst this distribution assuming p33 for each, EV feels extremely weighted to the upside recently rising crude has the effect of biasing premonition of *feeling* like the print will be hot - just a natural bias that forms. however what i think is interesting to think about is the capture window of this data - WTI started ticking from 75 to 80s from Aug start but the big move from low 80s to almost 100 happened on 8/26+. 90 on 8/31 -4 business days. think this is actually meaningful for PPI ND100 short posns, single stock short interest, degrossing L3M, and lack of tech exposure are all at 1, 3, 5 or 10Y highs. the prudent investor has de risked into such a dense event driven path

PPI in 2 hours and CPI tomorrow, just a reminder. #BTC